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Class Struggle Shapes the World...Time...

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FROM MY DEAR FRIEND AMBASSADOR GAJENDRA SINGH FROM INDIA


Marx's Revenge: How Class Struggle Is Shaping the World

With workers around the world burdened by joblessness and stagnant incomes, Marx's critique that capitalism is inherently unjust and self-destructive cannot be so easily dismissed

Karl Maxr
Adam Berry / Getty Images
The grave of German philosopher and economic theorist Karl Marx, remembered as the founder of modern socialism and communism, in Highgate Cemetery in London

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Karl Marx was supposed to be dead and buried. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and China's Great Leap Forward into capitalism, communism faded into the quaint backdrop of James Bond movies or the deviant mantra of Kim Jong Un. The class conflict that Marx believed determined the course of history seemed to melt away in a prosperous era of free trade and free enterprise. The far-reaching power of globalization, linking the most remote corners of the planet in lucrative bonds of finance, outsourcing and "borderless" manufacturing, offered everybody from Silicon Valley tech gurus to Chinese farm girls ample opportunities to get rich. Asia in the latter decades of the 20th century witnessed perhaps the most remarkable record of poverty alleviation in human history — all thanks to the very capitalist tools of trade, entrepreneurship and foreign investment. Capitalism appeared to be fulfilling its promise — to uplift everyone to new heights of wealth and welfare.
Or so we thought. With the global economy in a protracted crisis, and workers around the world burdened by joblessness, debt and stagnant incomes, Marx's biting critique of capitalism — that the system is inherently unjust and self-destructive — cannot be so easily dismissed. Marx theorized that the capitalist system would inevitably impoverish the masses as the world's wealth became concentrated in the hands of a greedy few, causing economic crises and heightened conflict between the rich and working classes. "Accumulation of wealth at one pole is at the same time accumulation of misery, agony of toil, slavery, ignorance, brutality, mental degradation, at the opposite pole," Marx wrote.
A growing dossier of evidence suggests that he may have been right. It is sadly all too easy to find statistics that show the rich are getting richer while the middle class and poor are not. A September study from the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) in Washington noted that the median annual earnings of a full-time, male worker in the U.S. in 2011, at $48,202, were smaller than in 1973. Between 1983 and 2010, 74% of the gains in wealth in the U.S. went to the richest 5%, while the bottom 60% suffered a decline, the EPI calculated. No wonder some have given the 19th century German philosopher a second look. In China, the Marxist country that turned its back on Marx, Yu Rongjun was inspired by world events to pen a musical based on Marx's classic Das Kapital. "You can find reality matches what is described in the book," says the playwright.
That's not to say Marx was entirely correct. His "dictatorship of the proletariat" didn't quite work out as planned. But the consequence of this widening inequality is just what Marx had predicted: class struggle is back. Workers of the world are growing angrier and demanding their fair share of the global economy. From the floor of the U.S. Congress to the streets of Athens to the assembly lines of southern China, political and economic events are being shaped by escalating tensions between capital and labor to a degree unseen since the communist revolutions of the 20th century. How this struggle plays out will influence the direction of global economic policy, the future of the welfare state, political stability in China, and who governs from Washington to Rome. What would Marx say today? "Some variation of: 'I told you so,'" says Richard Wolff, a Marxist economist at the New School in New York. "The income gap is producing a level of tension that I have not seen in my lifetime."
Tensions between economic classes in the U.S. are clearly on the rise. Society has been perceived as split between the "99%" (the regular folk, struggling to get by) and the "1%" (the connected and privileged superrich getting richer every day). In a Pew Research Center poll released last year, two-thirds of the respondents believed the U.S. suffered from "strong" or "very strong" conflict between rich and poor, a significant 19-percentage-point increase from 2009, ranking it as the No. 1 division in society.
The heightened conflict has dominated American politics. The partisan battle over how to fix the nation's budget deficit has been, to a great degree, a class struggle. Whenever President Barack Obama talks of raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans to close the budget gap, conservatives scream he is launching a "class war" against the affluent. Yet the Republicans are engaged in some class struggle of their own. The GOP's plan for fiscal health effectively hoists the burden of adjustment onto the middle and poorer economic classes through cuts to social services. Obama based a big part of his re-election campaign on characterizing the Republicans as insensitive to the working classes. GOP nominee Mitt Romney, the President charged, had only a "one-point plan" for the U.S. economy — "to make sure that folks at the top play by a different set of rules."
Amid the rhetoric, though, there are signs that this new American classism has shifted the debate over the nation's economic policy. Trickle-down economics, which insists that the success of the 1% will benefit the 99%, has come under heavy scrutiny. David Madland, a director at the Center for American Progress, a Washington-based think tank, believes that the 2012 presidential campaign has brought about a renewed focus on rebuilding the middle class, and a search for a different economic agenda to achieve that goal. "The whole way of thinking about the economy is being turned on its head," he says. "I sense a fundamental shift taking place."
The ferocity of the new class struggle is even more pronounced in France. Last May, as the pain of the financial crisis and budget cuts made the rich-poor divide starker to many ordinary citizens, they voted in the Socialist Party's François Hollande, who had once proclaimed: "I don't like the rich." He has proved true to his word. Key to his victory was a campaign pledge to extract more from the wealthy to maintain France's welfare state. To avoid the drastic spending cuts other policymakers in Europe have instituted to close yawning budget deficits, Hollande planned to hike the income tax rate to as high as 75%. Though that idea got shot down by the country's Constitutional Council, Hollande is scheming ways to introduce a similar measure. At the same time, Hollande has tilted government back toward the common man. He reversed an unpopular decision by his predecessor to increase France's retirement age by lowering it back down to the original 60 for some workers. Many in France want Hollande to go even further. "Hollande's tax proposal has to be the first step in the government acknowledging capitalism in its current form has become so unfair and dysfunctional it risks imploding without deep reform," says Charlotte Boulanger, a development official for NGOs.
His tactics, however, are sparking a backlash from the capitalist class. Mao Zedong might have insisted that "political power grows out of the barrel of a gun," but in a world where das kapital is more and more mobile, the weapons of class struggle have changed. Rather than paying out to Hollande, some of France's wealthy are moving out — taking badly needed jobs and investment with them. Jean-Émile Rosenblum, founder of online retailer Pixmania.com, is setting up both his life and new venture in the U.S., where he feels the climate is far more hospitable for businessmen. "Increased class conflict is a normal consequence of any economic crisis, but the political exploitation of that has been demagogic and discriminatory," Rosenblum says. "Rather than relying on (entrepreneurs) to create the companies and jobs we need, France is hounding them away."
The rich-poor divide is perhaps most volatile in China. Ironically, Obama and the newly installed President of Communist China, Xi Jinping, face the same challenge. Intensifying class struggle is not just a phenomenon of the slow-growth, debt-ridden industrialized world. Even in rapidly expanding emerging markets, tension between rich and poor is becoming a primary concern for policymakers. Contrary to what many disgruntled Americans and Europeans believe, China has not been a workers' paradise. The "iron rice bowl" — the Mao-era practice of guaranteeing workers jobs for life — faded with Maoism, and during the reform era, workers have had few rights. Even though wage income in China's cities is growing substantially, the rich-poor gap is extremely wide. Another Pew study revealed that nearly half of the Chinese surveyed consider the rich-poor divide a very big problem, while 8 out of 10 agreed with the proposition that the "rich just get richer while the poor get poorer" in China.
Resentment is reaching a boiling point in China's factory towns. "People from the outside see our lives as very bountiful, but the real life in the factory is very different," says factory worker Peng Ming in the southern industrial enclave of Shenzhen. Facing long hours, rising costs, indifferent managers and often late pay, workers are beginning to sound like true proletariat. "The way the rich get money is through exploiting the workers," says Guan Guohau, another Shenzhen factory employee. "Communism is what we are looking forward to." Unless the government takes greater action to improve their welfare, they say, the laborers will become more and more willing to take action themselves. "Workers will organize more," Peng predicts. "All the workers should be united."
That may already be happening. Tracking the level of labor unrest in China is difficult, but experts believe it has been on the rise. A new generation of factory workers — better informed than their parents, thanks to the Internet — has become more outspoken in its demands for better wages and working conditions. So far, the government's response has been mixed. Policymakers have raised minimum wages to boost incomes, toughened up labor laws to give workers more protection, and in some cases, allowed them to strike. But the government still discourages independent worker activism, often with force. Such tactics have left China's proletariat distrustful of their proletarian dictatorship. "The government thinks more about the companies than us," says Guan. If Xi doesn't reform the economy so the ordinary Chinese benefit more from the nation's growth, he runs the risk of fueling social unrest.
Marx would have predicted just such an outcome. As the proletariat woke to their common class interests, they'd overthrow the unjust capitalist system and replace it with a new, socialist wonderland. Communists "openly declare that their ends can be attained only by the forcible overthrow of all existing social conditions," Marx wrote. "The proletarians have nothing to lose but their chains." There are signs that the world's laborers are increasingly impatient with their feeble prospects. Tens of thousands have taken to the streets of cities like Madrid and Athens, protesting stratospheric unemployment and the austerity measures that are making matters even worse.
So far, though, Marx's revolution has yet to materialize. Workers may have common problems, but they aren't banding together to resolve them. Union membership in the U.S., for example, has continued to decline through the economic crisis, while the Occupy Wall Street movement fizzled. Protesters, says Jacques Rancière, an expert in Marxism at the University of Paris, aren't aiming to replace capitalism, as Marx had forecast, but merely to reform it. "We're not seeing protesting classes call for an overthrow or destruction of socioeconomic systems in place," he explains. "What class conflict is producing today are calls to fix systems so they become more viable and sustainable for the long run by redistributing the wealth created."
Despite such calls, however, current economic policy continues to fuel class tensions. In China, senior officials have paid lip service to narrowing the income gap but in practice have dodged the reforms (fighting corruption, liberalizing the finance sector) that could make that happen. Debt-burdened governments in Europe have slashed welfare programs even as joblessness has risen and growth sagged. In most cases, the solution chosen to repair capitalism has been more capitalism. Policymakers in Rome, Madrid and Athens are being pressured by bondholders to dismantle protection for workers and further deregulate domestic markets. Owen Jones, the British author of Chavs: The Demonization of the Working Class, calls this "a class war from above."
There are few to stand in the way. The emergence of a global labor market has defanged unions throughout the developed world. The political left, dragged rightward since the free-market onslaught of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, has not devised a credible alternative course. "Virtually all progressive or leftist parties contributed at some point to the rise and reach of financial markets, and rolling back of welfare systems in order to prove they were capable of reform," Rancière notes. "I'd say the prospects of Labor or Socialists parties or governments anywhere significantly reconfiguring — much less turning over — current economic systems to be pretty faint."
That leaves open a scary possibility: that Marx not only diagnosed capitalism's flaws but also the outcome of those flaws. If policymakers don't discover new methods of ensuring fair economic opportunity, the workers of the world may just unite. Marx may yet have his revenge.
— With reporting by Bruce Crumley / Paris; Chengcheng Jiang / Beijing; Shan-shan Wang / Shenzhen














PM NAWAZ SHARIF AND GENERAL KIANI HAVE NO ANTI TERROR STRATEGY

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Abject Pakistan Army Failure-Taliban kill officers probing massacre of foreign climbers

UNLESS WAR IS TAKEN TO FATA IN FULL FORCE PAKISTAN WILL REMAIN DESTABILISED

PAKISTANS NAUKRI BAZ AND SELF SERVING CIVIL AND MILITARY RULERS ONLY STRATEGY IS TO MAKE MORE MONEY AND ASSETS !

BRIGADIER SHAFILLUAH QURESHI FROM  5 BALUCH SUMMED IT UP VERY WELL 


" LANGAR KEE  DAAAIL ASAAR KARTEE HAI "


A.H AMIN



Taliban kill officers probing massacre of foreign climbers

PESHAWAR: Taliban fighters opened fire on a group of security officers investigating a June massacre of foreign climbers, killing three, officials said on Tuesday. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan claimed responsibility for the June 22-23 pre-dawn attack when gunmen dressed as policemen stormed a base camp on Pakistan's second-highest peak of Nanga Parbat, killing 10 foreign climbers and a local guide.
On Monday, two army officers and a senior superintendent of police (SSP) were shot dead while a soldier sustained injuries during an armed attack on the vehicle of SSP near Ronai, Chilas. Diamer SSP Hilal Ahmad was returning from the DC House along with Colonel Ghulam Mustafa and Captain Ashfaq Aziz when unidentified gunmen opened fire on their vehicle. The SSP and colonel died instantly while Captain Aziz and a security personal were wounded. The inured were rushed to the District Headquarters Hospital where Captain Aziz succumbed to the injuries. Chilas DCO Ajmal Bhatti said the officers were hit by the assailants hiding in mountains in the area. "Though no major arrests have been made so far related to the June 23 shooting of foreigners, these officials were investigating the killings of foreigners," a senior security official told Reuters. According to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan's (TTP) spokesperson, the banned outfit's subsidiary group Janood-e-Hafsa is behind Tuesday's attack. He added the attack had been carried out to divert the world's attention towards drone attacks in the Tribal Areas. Victims of the mountain assault included climbers from China, Lithuania, Nepal, Slovakia, Ukraine and one person with joint U.S.-Chinese citizenship. One Chinese climber escaped.
Nanga Parbat, one of the world's highest mountains, is popular among international mountaineers because of its challenging terrain, but growing violence has damaged the potentially lucrative tourism industry. agencies

Pakistani Military and Civilian Leadership Intellectually and Resolutionwise Incapable of Strategic Response to Terrorist Threat


Agha H Amin










Havinng served in the military and knowing most of the present Pakistani key decision makers personally I am of the firm conviction that :---


"  Pakistani Military and Civilian Leadership Intellectually and Resolution wise Incapable of Strategic Response to Terrorist Threat "


Failure is on following accounts and facets :---


  1. The credibility of Pakistani military leadership as defender of Pakistans so called Islamic ideology is being questioned by a large part of Pakistans Islamists ?They are regarded as Murtids or Hypocrites and non believers by the extremists.
  2. Pakistans Islamists have succeeded in synchronising fire power and movement at the operational level.
  3. Pakistans police is nearly eliminated and ineffective in facing terrorist threat.
  4. Pakistans civilian and military leadership cannot frame a tangible anti terrorist policy.
  5. The fact that Pakistan covertly supports 90 % of Afghan Taliban etc and attacks 90 % of Pakistani Taliban has introduced a strategic confusion of principle.
  6. Pakistans multiple internal wars , i.e ethnic in Balochistan,sectarian all over Pakistan, ideological in KP and Northern Areas, urban ethnic mafia in Karachi severely divide energy and resources of the Pakistani state.
  7. Pakistani military system has failed to produce effective Auftragstakik practising juniour leaders, bold mid level commanders and outstanding strategic level commanders barring LTG Tariq Khan who is most likely to be eliminated from elevation to army chief rank in 2013 because he has BA____LS and GUTS and INTELLECT and because of his half Pashtun ethnicity.He is an aristocrat and a very independent man who arouses much jealousy in Pakistans military hierarchy consisting of mediocres who came to top through conformism and sycophancy.



Lieutenant General Tariq Khan-A Soldier of Substance



Careerism,Apple Polishing , Strategic Assassination and History-Flattery will get you somewhere


Pakistans Strategic Mess is USAs Strategic Mess too


1978 Revolution ,Pakistan and Strategic Anarchy--Pakistans uncertain future


Agha H Amin



The April 1978 Saur Revolution was a historic event in modern history.




While the revolution merits a whole book or many volumes , we will just very briefly discuss its salient parts.


Afghanistan status as a buffer state was irrevocably transformed into a state where super powers fought proxy wars.Thus some 98 years of Afghan history of being a buffer state was changed.



 

Power shifted in Afghanistan from a Durrani-Persianised feudal elite into a more broad based multi ethnic state.The new leftist regime had Tajiks ,Hazaras and Uzbeks previously regarded as second and third rate citizens !


Although the coups major leaders were Pashtuns from Paktia and Khost like the indomitable Aslam Watanjar the PDPA was essentially a mix of Persian speaking urbanised intellectuals organised as Parchamis and a more radiacal Pashtun section from Paghman Khost and Paktia known as Parchamis.The Khalqis were rash , bold , impetuous and radiacal , while the Parchamis were more moderate.


The Saur revolution proved a gold mine for Pakistans illegitimate military junta of Zia which till April 1978 was politically an illegitimate bastard child regime.This regime used the Afghan revolution as a pretext to get dollars from USA and Saudi Arabia.Power shifted in Pakistan from a more progressive PPP regime to a more Punjabised regime dominated by refugees from Jullundhur and Batala etc .




Since this new clique was fatherless and illegitimate it used religion as well as caste as a political tool.Thus it outlawed political parties and Pakistani politics became more ethnic andsub ethnic with Punjab divided into castes as political forces and Sindh divided into urban and rural ! The division of Sindh into urban and rural was a planned reaction by the Pakistani illegal military regime as a counter to the MRD Movement of 1983 which had its roots in rural Sindh !


Pashtuns were used as cannon fodder by the military junta as proxies in Afghan war and thus the seeds of religious extremism were planted in Pakistan .


Foreign policy and all security and defence matters in Pakistan became the preserve of Pakistani military which continues till to date !



All civilian governments which came into power after 1988 elections in Pakistan were remote controlled by the Pakistani military and when Nawaz Sharif tried to assert civilian control in 1997-99 he was removed by a military coup.


It would not be wrong to call Pakistan an army with a country and not a country with an army since 5th July 1977, with a short stint of full civilian control by the second PML N Government from February 1997 to October 1999 !



There is no doubt that Pakistan is a state with dual controls since 5th July 1977 with a civilian co pilot who in reality is a flight steward and a hidden real piolt who controls major financial and security issues !


The imbalance in this situation are three new factors i.e (1) religious extremism which is now on a reverse boomerang course against the Pakistani elite (2) regional centrifugal forces in Balochistan (3) an increased foreign interest in Pakistan where foreign powers led by USA see Pakistan as an anachroninistic and adventurist state .



Five cardinal fact stand out in this scenario , (1) The USA severely lacks long term strategic insight and US policy is run on short term objectives which is well proven from how it behaved after USSR withdrew from Afghanistan and till 9/11 (2) Pakistan alone will not be able to restore strategic stability in Afghanistan or even Pakistan itself .Its military which controls major part of Pakistans financial and security policy is not intellectually capable of understanding the immense complexity of strategy andgeopolitics (3) The Pakistani state will not be able to control Islamic extremism (4) The multiplicity of state and non state actors can lead to severe strategic stability culminating in an India Pakistan nuclear stand off.



The Islamists are far more powerful than they seem ! The Pakistani military is not as clever as it thinks it is ! The Americans are strategically pathetic ! Thus the issue will be decided by random and unforeseeable forces !


Certainly what mean mortals who are in charge of affairs in this whole complex drama want may not happen ! Thus the relative less visible forces will take over !


The scene is thus set for strategic anarchy ! The real danger is that Pakistan cannot afford it but it is heading straight into a diasaster course because it has no able navigator at the highest level !






Yusuf Raza Gillanis Son Kidnapped by Pakistani Establishment to Punish Gillani Demanding Seraiki Province

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Eminent Pakistani analyst Mr Rauf Klasra stated on a private Pakistani TV channel on 07 Aug 2013 that Yusuf Raza Gillanis Son Kidnapped by Pakistani Establishment to Punish Gillani Demanding Seraiki Province.

What Klasra states is quite likely.

Its nearly impossible for a non state actor to kidnap anyone from Multan.

The so called Al Mansur Brigade which claims this kidnapping seems to be a fictitious group with zero credentials.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

MY SERAIKI PROVINCE MAP PLAGIARISED IN DAILY NEWS SUNDAY 20 JANUARY 2013 AND MY NAME REMOVED FROM MAP

MY SERAIKI PROVINCE MAP PLAGIARISED IN DAILY NEWS SUNDAY 20 JANUARY 2013 AND MY NAME REMOVED FROM MAP

SEE DAILY NEWS SUNDAY -MAGAZINE SECTION

AGHA H AMIN

http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/2011/04/comments-aghahamin-what-if-punjab-is.html

20 April, 2011

Seraiki Province-Analysis

Provinces of Mughal Empire
My Dear Irfani Sahib
The salient facts are as following :--
1-In the Sikh period till 1849 South Punjab south of line Sahiwal was Multan Province .In Mughal Times also south punjab was multan and it included bahawalpur sukkur and as far as sibi
2-Punjab was purely a British creation.Created by East India Company in 1849.
3-Bahawalpur was never part of Punjab and even when it was amalgamated in Pakistan it remained a separate province till one units creation in 1955.Once One Unit was abolished in 1969 Bahawalpur should have reverted back.
4-If you study the figures some 70 % of Punjabs money is spent on the triangle Lahore-Pindi-Faisalabad while DG Khan , Multan ,Bahawalpur Divisions which are non Punjabi majority are regarded as third rate Dravidians .
5-Land in Bahawalpur Divsion by design is being allotted to Punjabis from the same triangle Lahore Faisalabad Pindi.
6-The vast recruitment in police and all punjab civilian departments is again from the triangle Lahore Faisalabad Pindi.
7-Most of the international aid received in Afghan war like World Bank loans was spent on projects in Punjab in the semi Square Lahore Pindi Sahiwal Faisalabad.
8-The Lahore Islambad Motorway was designed to benefit the purely Punjabi Triangle Lahore Pindi Faisalabad.
9-All major settlement schemes starting from TDA in 1950s ,Cholistan Development Authority etc were designed to settle Punjabi settlers in Thal and Bahawalpur Divisions.
All this is by design and unless Punjab is divided in Punjab , Multan and Bahawalpur Provinces the unjust use of funds would carry on and the Seraikis and Baloch in South Punjab would remain third rate citizens which they are since 1849.
If Multan and Bahawalpur are created as provinces they would be only about 60 % Seraiki as both have huge numbers of Punjabi and Ranghar settlers.Multan city is actually 55 to 60 % Urdu speaking with Rohtakis and Ranghars.Khanewal ,Vihari ,Lodhran,Muzaffargarh,Leiah,Bhakkar also ahve large number of Punjabi and Ranghar settlers.
All would benefit.This is not just a Seraiki issue but an issue of gross administrative justice.
The name Seraiki would be poisonous and politically inexpedient.
Instead the two new provinces should simply be called Bahawalpur and Multan.
best regards
Agha
The list is endless .
Agha.H.Amin
---------- Forwarded message ----------
On Wed, Apr 20, 2011 at 4:06 PM, Kalim Irfani <kirfani@gmail.com> wrote:
<<...Big size is also blamed for Punjabi influence in Pakistan through the political setup and domination of military. Presently PPP is ruling the federation having won seats in smaller, as well as in the largest province. At the moment, the highest political posts in the center are held by politicians from Sindh and would-be Saraiki area. Even the governor of Punjab belongs to Saraiki area. Furthermore, Punjabi politicians are very diverse and have never been in one party to influence the center in one direction. Therefore, the notion of size being the basis of Punjabi influence is false. However, if the central Punjab has largest chunks of population then that cannot be changed even after creating the Saraiki province, Punjab will still have more national assembly seats than other provinces if it is to be based on a democratic process of one-person-one-vote...>>
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Shahid Husain <Husainfive@yahoo.com>
Date: 2011/4/19
Subject: Washington Diary: What if Punjab is too large?
To: Shahid Husain Husainfive@yahoo.com


Washington Diary: What if Punjab is too large?

Dr. Manzur Ejaz

The pretext given for the creation of a separate Saraiki province has no validity if we examine the past experience within Indo-Pak or in the rest of the world. However, if the Saraiki province is being created on the basis of linguistic differentiation and presumed cultural differences, then it should be recognized as a principle and implemented in the rest of the country as well. As a matter of fact, it would be followed by creation of other provinces on the linguistic basis even some political parties like MQM are hiding their ultimate agenda to set a precedent and then follow up.

          The major argument in favor of breaking up Punjab into smaller provinces is that the province too large as it currently exists. California, Texas, Florida and New York states have 37, 25, 19, 18 million people respectively, while there are 8 US states that have less than one million, and North Dakota and Vermont have populations of around half a million. The bulk of the US states has a population around five million. But does it mean that South Dakota is being run more efficiently then even New York City, a part of New York State. Most of the smaller southern states are poor, badly managed, and serve as the hub of extreme conservatism because a tiny elite have unlimited influence over smaller populations. However, when it comes to highly populated large states like Texas or California, the rich individual's influence is diluted, and they cannot create small fiefdoms out of large diverse states.

          This is also true within Pakistan. Whatever is being heard from the professionals working in the international agencies is that Punjab, since Nawaz Sharif's days, is a better managed province. Along with the Sharif brothers, people give a lot of credit to Ch. Pervaiz Elahi for running an efficient administration in Punjab. On the contrary, smaller provinces, without naming the names, are extreme examples of poor governance. Therefore, the rationale that a bigger province should be broken into smaller ones based on efficiency is utterly false and baseless.

          In the last couple of decades many tehsils were upgraded to break the large districts. For example, Sahiwal was divided adding two new districts, Okara and Pakpattan. The question is: Has the management improved or just resulted in additional administrative layers and tripling administrative costs? Other than local landed aristocracy and bureaucracy who has benefitted by such moves? Has any cost-benefit study been conducted on this change? I do not think so.

          To support the case for creating a new province, Afghanistan's example is often quoted. Have Afghan provinces ever governed—even before 70s—better than Pakistani Punjab or even other Pak provinces which are much larger than their counterparts in the northern neighbor? Malaysia is another country quoted more often. Again were these provinces being run better and, furthermore, what is the concept of 'province' in Afghanistan or Malaysia? I think we are comparing oranges and apples because Afghan provinces are like our districts with a different set up. In India and Pakistan, provinces have legislative assemblies, chief ministers (ever heard of chief minister of an Afghan province?), governors and an army of provincial cabinet ministers. Therefore, creating new provinces multiplies the quantity of bureaucrats, administrative staffs and hence the recurrent costs.

          Big size is also blamed for Punjabi influence in Pakistan through the political setup and domination of military. Presently PPP is ruling the federation having won seats in smaller, as well as in the largest province. At the moment, the highest political posts in the center are held by politicians from Sindh and would-be Saraiki area. Even the governor of Punjab belongs to Saraiki area. Furthermore, Punjabi politicians are very diverse and have never been in one party to influence the center in one direction. Therefore, the notion of size being the basis of Punjabi influence is false. However, if the central Punjab has largest chunks of population then that cannot be changed even after creating the Saraiki province, Punjab will still have more national assembly seats than other provinces if it is to be based on a democratic process of one-person-one-vote.

          As for as the Punjabi influence through military is concerned, that should have been thought out by wizards who created Pakistan, because most of the Muslim Punjabi military was comprised of Punjabis before 1947. As a matter of fact the bulk of the military comes from five or six districts of northern Punjab and that is not going to change even after Saraiki Province is created. If these districts are put into another province, namely Pothohar, then it will be renamed as Pothoharri army. Furthermore, the ratio of army men from KP is massively understated.

          While the arguments of size and efficiency hold no grounds the linguistic and cultural differentiation is the only remaining valid reason for creating Saraiki province. As a principle, every enlightened person supports the nationality rights without any if's and butts. However, it is almost certain that instead of Saraiki, Urdu will be the official language of the new province: Sajjada Nashins of Multan are not known to be fond of people's language in the last ten centuries. If that is going to be the case then linguistic pretext is irrelevant as well. The ethnic differentiation is also a doubtful denominator because people of ex-Bahawalpur state, even Saraiki speaking, want their state to be recognized as a separate province. Nawab Salahud Din, heir to the state has negated the ethnic basis by declaring that migrants, settlers and indigenous people are equal and united.

          If Pakistan People's Party (PPP) is trying to contain Nawaz Sharif's influence then it is extremely unwise step. Such decisions having very long-term effects and should be taken to get rid of temporary difficulties. However, if the feudals of Sindh are hoping to care out a fiefdom in Punjab to get rid of forward-looking central Punjabi population, then it is another matter. If central Punjab had not overwhelmingly supported Zulifqar Ali Bhutto in 1970 election, he could not have been able to rehabilitate Sindhi language to its long deserved status. If the precedent of Saraiki province is established no one can stop creation of Karachi-Hyderabad province. That will decimate Sindhi aspirations.

The role of middle classes of Punjab has been crucial in present Pakistan's democratic movements. It is this area where persons from Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chauhdry to Mukhtaran Mai find supporters. The fear is that oppressed people of the feudal belt of Punjab will lose their supporters like Pakistan did when East Pakistan broke away: Pakistanis lost the best vanguards of democratic rights. Nevertheless, we wish good luck to Saraiki people if they think Saraiki province will fulfill their desire of nationality rights even if it is transformed into feudal fiefdoms!


The Development of Taliban Factions in Afghanistan and Pakistan: A Geographical Account, February 2010
Amin, Agha , Osinski, David J. , & DeGeorges, Paul Andre

 

http://mellenpress.com/mellenpress.cfm?bookid=8028&pc=9



BOOKS ON PAKISTAN REVIEWED-AMAZON UK

 

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Books-Pakistan-Reviewed-Agha-Humayun/dp/1480086193/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354666967&sr=1-1





Military Leadership


http://www.amazon.com/Military-Leadership-Decision-Making-Humayun/dp/1480086649/ref=sr_1_4?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354667524&sr=1-4





Taliban war in Afghanistan


http://www.amazon.com/Taliban-Afghanistan--Writers-Transformed-Perceptions/dp/1480085863/ref=sr_1_5?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354667721&sr=1-5



Atlas and History of Wars


http://www.amazon.com/Atlas-Military-History-India-Pakistan/dp/1480102016/ref=sr_1_7?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354667783&sr=1-7

 

THE ESSENTIAL CLAUSEWITZ


http://www.amazon.com/Essential-Clausewitz-Agha-Humayun-Amin/dp/1480199826/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354667218&sr=1-1&keywords=AGHA+HUMAYUN+AMIN


 

USA,ISI,AL QAEDA and TALIBAN-Setting Straight Bruce Riedels Strategic Narrative


http://www.amazon.com/TALIBAN-Setting-Straight-Riedels-Strategic-Narrative/dp/1481007645/ref=sr_1_17?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354667320&sr=1-17

 

1971 War


http://www.amazon.com/Pakistan-Army-1971-India-after/dp/1480109770/ref=sr_1_8?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354667962&sr=1-8


Mans Role in History


http://www.amazon.com/Mans-Role-History-Agha-Humayun/dp/1480233536/ref=sr_1_9?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354667993&sr=1-9



How a private English Company conquered a sub continent


http://www.amazon.com/English-East-India-Company-Conquered/dp/1480234834/ref=sr_1_10?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354668028&sr=1-10



Atlas of a great tank battle


http://www.amazon.com/Atlas-Battle-Chawinda-Agha-Humayun/dp/1480242284/ref=sr_1_11?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354668289&sr=1-11



Atlas of a bloody Indian Pakistan battle


http://www.amazon.com/Atlas-Battle-Chamb-1971-Humayun/dp/1480247529/ref=sr_1_12?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354668583&sr=1-12



A forgotten and  Bloody British Failure



http://www.amazon.com/Atlas-Battle-Chillianwallah-13-January-1849/dp/1480253081/ref=sr_1_13?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354668621&sr=1-13


The Pakistani Tank Divisions Failure in 1965


http://www.amazon.com/Atlas-Battles-Assal-Uttar-Lahore-1965/dp/1480253634/ref=sr_1_14?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354668655&sr=1-14



Second  World Wars Forgotten History

 

http://www.amazon.com/Indian-Army-Second-World-War/dp/1480269107/ref=sr_1_15?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354668691&sr=1-15


 

How Indian Army saved France and Suez Canal


http://www.amazon.com/Indian-Army-First-World-War/dp/1480274488/ref=sr_1_16?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354668753&sr=1-16


 

 

 Sepoy Rebellion of 1857-59 Reinterpreted

 

http://www.amazon.com/Sepoy-Rebellion-1857-59-Reinterpreted-Humayun/dp/1480085707/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354667451&sr=1-2


PAKISTAN ARMY THROUGH EYES OF PAKISTANI GENERALS

 

http://www.amazon.com/Pakistan-Army-through-Pakistani-Generals/dp/1480085960/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1354667488&sr=1-3

 

 

 

  


Prediction Of A Crash In Next Two Weeks

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FROM MY DEAR FRIEND PAUL BROWN FROM THE USA


 
Watching closely, I'm seeing a wealth of signs via the analysis of first class experts that things are about to go bad, very bad.  Link below takes you to an interview you have got to hear.  For real.  Methinks our luck has run out, as has our time.  Godspeed.
 
Paul

Prediction Of A Crash In Next Two WeeksBy DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com on August 7, 2013
Dear Friend,
Jim Fitzgibbon, the head of the Highlander Fund, appeared on my radio show on Wednesday, August 7th, and went through chapter and verse about what is happening in the economy today.  He used language we can all understand.  The bottom line is that he predicts a massive drop in the stock market and the economy this month that will continue, with brief spurts upward, until the end of the year and beyond.  His track record in predictions is extraordinary, having predicted the Japanese crash and, to the month, the 2008 meltdown.  Please listen to this tape!  It is very important.  (This is not a paid ad.  It is my heartfelt wish that you hear what he has to say and take it seriously.) Click Here to listen to my interview with Jim Fitzgibbon!
Thanks, Dick Morris
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Dick Morris is well known for his insightful and hard-hitting political commentary. With his wife, Eileen McGann, Dick has written 14 books, including 10 NY Times best-sellers. Together they pen almost daily columns for their website http://list.dickmorris.com/t/515552/1430845/1775/31/, the New York Post, Newsmax, the Hill Magazine and many other publications. Domestically, Morris has handled the winning campaigns of more than 30 Senators and Governors, including President Bill Clinton and Republican Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott. Internationally, he has piloted the successful campaigns of the president or prime minister of Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Uruguay, Kenya, Hungary, Poland, Taiwan, and Japan.

Morris' and McGann's latest book is Here Come the Black Helicopters!:UN Global Governance and the Loss of Freedom.


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Net Atlantic

an India and Pakistan make Peace – Agha.H.Amin , Major (r)

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THE ONLY REASON WHY THIRD RATE PAKISTAN IS SURVIVING IS BECAUSE IT HAS AN EQUALLY THIRD RATE ENEMY LIKE INDIA !

MEDIOCRES ON BOTH SIDES , BOTH ARMY AND CIVIL ?



AGHA H AMIN


Can India and Pakistan make Peace – Agha.H.Amin , Major (r)


Utopians in India are jubilant that Pakistan has made peace with India.

Nothing in reality can be farther from the truth.

The recent sudden angelic desire on part of the Pakistani establishment to make peace with India has nothing to do with any major shift in Pakistans foreign policy written in the Pakistani military headquarters popularly known as the GHQ.

The Pakistani apparent shift is merely a tactical response to extreme confrontation with the US over perceived US view that Pakistan is playing a double game in Afghanistan.

This is similar to Musharrafs flirtation with India from 2000 to 2007 which in reality was a gambit to prevent a two front war with Afghanistan occupied by the USA and a hostile India in the east.

The real picture of true intentions of the Pakistani military will emerge when the US withdraws from Afghanistan.

This will be the time when the Russians ,Iranians and Indians will have no choice but to support the Northern Alliance against Pakistan sponsored Taliban who regard all Shias, Ismailis,Non Pashtuns,moderate Pashtuns as infidels who deserve to be massacred.

The Pakistani politicians are a compromised manipulated lot who are under firm control of the Pakistani military thanks to the politicians own massive financial corruption.They will do what the Pakistani generals tell them whether it is the PPP, PML or any new party like Imran Khans Tehrik i Insaaf.

Pakistan will remain the same state run by an army rather than a state with an army.The Pakistani generals will control Pakistans politics and foreign policy and Pakistan India relations will remain a mix of an uneasy and an unpredictable peace.

Pakistan will remain embroiled in an ever continuous civil unrest.Baloch will be gunned down by the Pakistani military while Pakistans politicians will remain the puppets of the military that they have been since 1977.

Terrorism will remain a tool of foreign policy while the Pakistani military runs the Pakistani state under a facade of PPP or PML or Tehrik i Insaaf.

By that time Pakistani military will be hoping to achieve all its objectives–

1. An extremist dominated Afghanistan.

2. A Balochistan fully fragmented and crushed.

3. A Pakistani political party leading Pakistan fully subservient to the Pakistani military.

4. A renewed infiltration in Kashmir.

5. A brinkmans nuclear policy with India .

6. A greater Chinese vassal with far greater Chinese interests in Pakistan.

There is no doubt that Pakistan will be a semi autonomous Chinese province by 2030 or so.Its relations with India will be run on two basis , Pakistani military retaining its nuisance value based on the much trumped and misused Indian threat and secondly Pakistan as a Chinese pawn acting as Chinas western bastion in West Asia.Pakistani Balochistan by 2030 would be a completely Chinese run show while Pakistans military and corrupt politicians will control Pakistans corrupt par excellence economy.

Manmohan Singh will remain dupes that they always were.The region will remain unstable because instability is custom made to suit the Pakistani elite both military and civilian.

Indias budding middle class wants to make peace with the Pakistani establishment because they want to have a good time.

Manmohan Singh is a cheap social climber with no strategic vision.This means that the common man in both India and Pakistan will both come to grief.

Pashtuns and Baloch will remain pawns of Pakistani establishment with Baloch regarded as Red Indians and Pashtuns regarded as good cannon fodder to be launched like fools in the name of Islam.Pakistans economy will remain centred to serve the good of Pakistan elite and prosperity will remain confined to the triangle Pindi Multan Lahore and Karachi-Hyderabad.

The Pakistani supreme court will remain an arm of the Pakistani elite who turns a blind eye when any one challenges Pakistani military in the courts.

Pakistan shall remain a mirage which serves a 5 % elite and the region will remain unstable and a hostage to nuclear brinkmanship.

Pakistans pensioners will die like stray dogs ! Pakistans youth will be gunned down by the corrupt Pakistani police for money ! Pakistani intelligence will continue the kill and dump policy all over Pakistan and specially in Balochistan !

This is not about Islam ! This is not about Pakistan ! This is all about a 5 or 10 % establishment that has controlled Pakistan since 1948.

All that this elite wants is to preserve their unfair advantage ! These are the new Banias,the new Muslim Banias of Pakistan !

In 1947 Muslims of Pakistan got rid of Hindu Banias but the idea of the Muslim elite was that the Muslim masses need to be buggered not by the Hindu Banias but by Muslim Banias from Gujerat,Chiniot,Khotian (later Saigal Abad) and the elite feudals who had joined the Muslim League by the 1946 elections.

Third rate Pakistani lower middle class young men will continue to pass the CSS exam and join Police,FBR and DMG to become billionaires with phenomenal corruption of all types with houses in posh DHA Karachi or Lahore within ten years of passing the CSS exam !

Pakistan does not have hawks with aristocratic backgrounds like ZA Bhutto nor visionary generals ! It is run by carpetbaggers,robber industrial barons,arch intriguer feudals and generals who are NCOs sons and are just simply ambitious !

This means that Pakistans political economy of exporting terrorism as a foreign policy tool,massive corruption at home and the resultant ever growing reservoir of economically deprived youngsters who will fill ranks of extremists and suicide bombers will continue.

We salute the age of West Asian strategic anarchy 

pakistan has such deadly enemies like nawaz sharif , zardari and kiani that pakistan does not india to destroy it

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pakistan has  such deadly  enemies like nawaz sharif , zardari and kiani that pakistan does not india to destroy it

UMRA in ramzan is best common factor between pakistani prostitutes and pakistani politicians , both white wash their dirty money

THIRD RATE PAKISTAN SURVIVING JUST BECAUSE INDIA BOTH POLITICAL AND MILITARY IS EQUALLY THIRD RATE

Agha H Amin



If Obama is such a great President ?

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Why I Dont Agree with MARK MAZZETTI's BU____l SH____T ANALYSIS OF RAYMOND DAVIS

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Why I Dont Agree with MARK MAZZETTI's BU____l   SH____T  ANALYSIS OF RAYMOND DAVIS

AGHA .H.AMIN

Mark Mazzetti's analysis is not based on facts.

The hard facts of the matter are that historically the region that comprises Pakistan consists of the most opportunist races in the world .

In 1857 it was thanks to these opportunist races that 5th and 8th Light Cavalry were disbanded by the English East India Company ?

Some my ancestors and their cousins served in these fine cavalry regiments.

Pakistani Muslims in particular and Indian Muslims in general were saved from total political annihilation at hands of Sikhs and Hindus by a KNIGHT IN SHINING ARMOUR called ENGLISH EAST INDIA COMPANY WHO liberated Delhi and UP Muslims from Hindu Marathas in 1803 and Punjabi and Pashtun Muslims from Sikhs in 1849.Sindhi Muslims by Treaty of Amritsrar in 1809.

ITS A HARD FACT OF HISTORY THAT A 8 % SIKH MINORITY HAD ABSOLUTELY DEFEATED MUSLIMS BOTH SIKH AND PASHTUNS AND USED MUSLIM MOSQUES AS STABLES.

THESE SIKHS WOULD HAVE DESTROYED SINDH TOO BUT WERE RESTRAINED BY TREARY OF AMRITSRAR OF 1809.

It was US largesse that saved Pakistan in the period 1954-66 and 1979- 2001 Afghan Wars.

Anti Americanism in PAKISTAN is a ploy to get US aid .

THE RULE OF THUMB WITH PAKISTANI ELITE IS SIMPLE AND WELL TRIED BY ALL RACES FROM TURKS TO BRITISH :--


" YOU FU____K  THEIR MOTHERS AND THEY ACKNOWLEDGE YOU AS THEIR FATHER " !

RUMSFELD COULD HAVE ACHIEVED MUCH MORE AND AT A FAR LOWER COST FFROM MUSHARRAF IN LATE 2001 BY DESTROYING AERIALLY FEW PARTS OF ISLAMABAD ?

PAKISTANI ELITE BOTH MILITARY AND CIVILIAN ARE HOPELESS WINDBAGS FULL OF ROTTEN MANURE !

ABOSLUTELY SPINELESS ?

MANY BATMEN OF BRITISH OFFICERS WERE COMMISSIONED IN OFFICER RANKS IN PAKISTAN ARMY AND AT LEAST THREE BECAME GENERALS.

I ASKED MY QUARTER MASTER WHO HAD SERVED IN THE ISI AND HE HAD A VERY LOW AND DESPICABLE OPINION ABOUT THE ISI WHO HE SAID WAS FULL OF NAUKRI BAAZ PEOPLE ( CAREERISTS AND SYCOPHANTS)

SO I DONT AGREE WITH MAZEOTTIS BULL SHIT .

PAKISTAN MOST DANGEROUS ENEMIES ARE THE 20,000 FAMILIES OWNING 80 % OF WEALTH AND PAYING 5 % TAXES,

PAKISTANI POLITICIANS GENERALS AND PROSTITUTES PERFORM UMRAH IN SAUDI OCCUPIED ARABIA EVERY RAMZAN TO WHITE WASH THEIR PROMISCUITY ?

PAKISTAN IS IN ANARCHY THANKS TO ITS PIM___ LEADERS ?

WHAT IS ANTI AMERICANISM  ? PAKISTANIS ARE FED UP WITH THEIR OWN LEADERS WHO ARE WORSE THAN US OR JEWS OR HINDUS ?
AGHA H AMIN


How a Single Spy Helped Turn Pakistan Against the United States


Photo illustration from photographs by Arif Ali/AFP, via Newscom (left) and Douglas County sheriff's office (right).
By 

Published: April 9, 2013 256 Comments
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The burly American was escorted by Pakistani policemen into a crowded interrogation room. Amid a clatter of ringing mobile phones and cross talk among the cops speaking a mishmash of Urdu, Punjabi and English, the investigator tried to decipher the facts of the case.
Tariq Saeed/Reuters
Raymond Davis, who was employed by the C.I.A. as a contractor, was escorted out of court after facing a judge in Lahore, January 28, 2011.
Ilyas J. Dean/PAK/Newscom
Pakistani rage at the United States — in particular at the drone attacks in the tribal areas — found focus with the Raymond Davis affair.
K.M. Chaudary/Associated Press
An armored car carrying Raymond Davis leaves a courthouse in Lahore, Pakistan.

Readers' Comments

Readers shared their thoughts on this article.
"America, you from America?"
"Yes."
"You're from America, and you belong to the American Embassy?"
"Yes," the American voice said loudly above the chatter. "My passport — at the site I showed the police officer. . . . It's somewhere. It's lost."
On the jumpy video footage of the interrogation, he reached beneath his checkered flannel shirt and produced a jumble of identification badges hanging around his neck. "This is an old badge. This is Islamabad." He showed the badge to the man across the desk and then flipped to a more recent one proving his employment in the American Consulate in Lahore.
"You are working at the consulate general in Lahore?" the policeman asked.
"Yes."
"As a . . . ?"
"I, I just work as a consultant there."
"Consultant?" The man behind the desk paused for a moment and then shot a question in Urdu to another policeman. "And what's the name?"
"Raymond Davis," the officer responded.
"Raymond Davis," the American confirmed. "Can I sit down?"
"Please do. Give you water?" the officer asked.
"Do you have a bottle? A bottle of water?" Davis asked.
Another officer in the room laughed. "You want water?" he asked. "No money, no water."
Another policeman walked into the room and asked for an update. "Is he understanding everything? And he just killed two men?"
Hours earlier, Davis had been navigating dense traffic in Lahore, his thick frame wedged into the driver's seat of a white Honda Civic. A city once ruled by Mughals, Sikhs and the British, Lahore is Pakistan's cultural and intellectual capital, and for nearly a decade it had been on the fringes of America's secret war in Pakistan. But the map of Islamic militancy inside Pakistan had been redrawn in recent years, and factions that once had little contact with one another had cemented new alliances in response to the C.I.A.'s drone campaign in the western mountains. Groups that had focused most of their energies dreaming up bloody attacks against India were now aligning themselves closer to Al Qaeda and other organizations with a thirst for global jihad. Some of these groups had deep roots in Lahore, which was why Davis and a C.I.A. team set up operations from a safe house in the city.
But now Davis was sitting in a Lahore police station, having shot two young men who approached his car on a black motorcycle, their guns drawn, at an intersection congested with cars, bicycles and rickshaws. Davis took his semiautomatic Glock pistol and shot through the windshield, shattering the glass and hitting one of the men numerous times. As the other man fled, Davis got out of his car and shot several rounds into his back.
He radioed the American Consulate for help, and within minutes a Toyota Land Cruiser was in sight, careering in the wrong direction down a one-way street. But the S.U.V. struck and killed a young Pakistani motorcyclist and then drove away. An assortment of bizarre paraphernalia was found, including a black mask, approximately 100 bullets and a piece of cloth bearing an American flag. The camera inside Davis's car contained photos of Pakistani military installations, taken surreptitiously.
More than two years later, the Raymond Davis episode has been largely forgotten in the United States. It was immediately overshadowed by the dramatic raid months later that killed Osama bin Laden — consigned to a footnote in the doleful narrative of America's relationship with Pakistan. But dozens of interviews conducted over several months, with government officials and intelligence officers in Pakistan and in the United States, tell a different story: that the real unraveling of the relationship was set off by the flurry of bullets Davis unleashed on the afternoon of Jan. 27, 2011, and exacerbated by a series of misguided decisions in the days and weeks that followed. In Pakistan, it is the Davis affair, more than the Bin Laden raid, that is still discussed in the country's crowded bazaars and corridors of power.
Davis was taken to Kot Lakhpat prison, on the industrial fringes of Lahore, a jail with a reputation for inmates dying under murky circumstances. He was separated from the rest of the prisoners and held in a section of the decaying facility where the guards didn't carry weapons, a concession for his safety that American officials managed to extract from the prison staff. The United States Consulate in Lahore had negotiated another safeguard: A small team of dogs was tasting Davis's food, checking that it had not been laced with poison.
For many senior Pakistani spies, the man sitting in the jail cell represented solid proof of their suspicions that the C.I.A. had sent a vast secret army to Pakistan, men who sowed chaos and violence as part of the covert American war in the country. For the C.I.A., the eventual disclosure of Davis's role with the agency shed an unflattering light on a post–Sept. 11 reality: that the C.I.A. had farmed out some of its most sensitive jobs to outside contractors — many of them with neither the experience nor the temperament to work in the war zones of the Islamic world.
The third child of a bricklayer and a cook, Davis grew up in a small clapboard house outside Big Stone Gap, a town of nearly 6,000 people in Virginia coal country. He became a football and wrestling star at the local high school, and after graduating in 1993, Davis enlisted in the Army and did a tour in Macedonia in 1994 as a United Nations peacekeeper. When his five-year hitch in the infantry was up, he re-enlisted, this time in the Army's Third Special Forces Group based at Fort Bragg, N.C. He left the Army in 2003 and, like hundreds of other retired Navy SEALs and Green Berets, was hired by the private security firm Blackwater and soon found himself in Iraq working security for the C.I.A.
Little is known about his work for Blackwater, but by 2006, Davis had left the firm and, together with his wife, founded a security company in Las Vegas. Soon he was hired by the C.I.A. as a private contractor, what the agency calls a "Green Badge," for the color of the identification cards that contractors show to enter C.I.A. headquarters at Langley. Like Davis, many of the contractors were hired to fill out the C.I.A.'s Global Response Staff — bodyguards who traveled to war zones to protect case officers, assess the security of potential meeting spots, even make initial contact with sources to ensure that case officers wouldn't be walking into an ambush. Officers from the C.I.A.'s security branch came under withering fire on the roof of the agency's base in Benghazi, Libya, last September. The demands of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan had so stretched the C.I.A.'s own cadre of security officers that the agency was forced to pay inflated sums to private contractors to do the security jobs. When Davis first deployed with the C.I.A. to Pakistan in 2008, he worked from the agency's base in Peshawar, earning upward of $200,000 a year.
By mid-February 2011, with Davis still sitting in prison, anti-American passions were fully inflamed, and daily street protests and newspaper editorials demanded that the government not cave to Washington's demands for Davis's release but instead sentence him to death. The evidence at the time indicated that the men Davis killed had carried out a string of petty thefts that day, but there was an added problem: the third man killed by the unmarked American S.U.V. fleeing the scene. Making matters even worse for Davis was the fact that he was imprisoned in Lahore, where the family of Nawaz Sharif dominated the political culture. The former leader of the country made no secret about his intentions to once again run Pakistan, making him the chief antagonist to President Asif Ali Zardari and his political machine in Islamabad, a four-hour drive away. As the American Embassy in Islamabad leaned on Zardari's government to get Davis released from jail, the diplomats soon realized that Zardari had little influence over the police officers and judges in the city of the president's bitter rival.
But the most significant factor ensuring that Davis would languish in jail was that the Obama administration had yet to tell Pakistan's government what the Pakistanis already suspected, and what Raymond Davis's marksmanship made clear: He wasn't just another paper-shuffling American diplomat. Davis's work in Pakistan was much darker, and it involved probing an exposed nerve in the already-hypersensitive relationship between the C.I.A. and Pakistan's military intelligence service, the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence, or I.S.I.
Ever since the Pakistani militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba (the Army of the Pure) dispatched teams of assassins to lay siege to luxury hotels and other sites in Mumbai, India, in November 2008, killing and wounding more than 500 people over four days of mayhem, C.I.A. analysts had been warning that the group was seeking to raise its global profile by carrying out spectacular attacks beyond South Asia. This spurred the agency to assign more of its expanding army of operatives in Pakistan toward gathering intelligence about Lashkar's operations — a decision that put the interests of the C.I.A. and the I.S.I. in direct conflict. It was one thing for American spies to be lurking around the tribal areas, hunting for Al Qaeda figures; it was quite another to go into Pakistani cities on espionage missions against a group that the I.S.I. considered a valuable proxy force in its continuing battle with India.
The I.S.I. had nurtured the group for years as a useful asset against India, and Lashkar's sprawling headquarters outside Lahore housed a radical madrassa, a market, a hospital, even a fish farm. The group's charismatic leader, Hafiz Muhammad Saeed, had been put under house arrest at various times, but in 2009 the Lahore High Court quashed all terrorism charges against him and set him free. A stocky man with a wild beard, Saeed preached out in the open on many Fridays, flanked by bodyguards and delivering sermons to throngs of his followers about the imperialism of the United States, India and Israel. Even after the U.S. offered a $10 million reward for evidence linking Saeed to the Mumbai attacks, he continued to move freely in public, burnishing his legend as a Pakistani version of Robin Hood.
By the time Raymond Davis moved into a safe house with a handful of other C.I.A. officers and contractors in late 2010, the bulk of the agency's officers in Lahore were focused on investigating the growth of Lashkar. To get more of its spies into Pakistan, the C.I.A. had exploited the arcane rules in place for approving visas for Americans. The State Department, the C.I.A. and the Pentagon all had separate channels to request visas for their personnel, and all of them led to the desk of Husain Haqqani, Pakistan's pro-American ambassador in Washington. Haqqani had orders from Islamabad to be lenient in approving the visas, because many of the Americans coming to Pakistan were — at least officially — going to be administering millions of dollars in foreign-aid money. By the time of the Lahore killings, in early 2011, so many Americans were operating inside Pakistan under both legitimate and false identities that even the U.S. Embassy didn't have accurate records of their identities and whereabouts.
The American Embassy in Islamabad is essentially a fortress within a fortress, a pile of buildings enclosed by walls topped with razor wire and surveillance cameras and then encircled by an outer ring of walls that separates a leafy area, called the Diplomatic Enclave, from the rest of the city. Inside the embassy, the work of diplomats and spies is kept largely separate, with the C.I.A. station occupying a warren of offices in its own wing, accessed only through doors with coded locks.
After Davis was picked up by the Lahore police, the embassy became a house divided by more than mere geography. Just days before the shootings, the C.I.A. sent a new station chief to Islamabad. Old-school and stubborn, the new chief did not come to Pakistan to be friendly with the I.S.I. Instead, he wanted to recruit more Pakistani agents to work for the C.I.A. under the I.S.I.'s nose, expand electronic surveillance of I.S.I. offices and share little information with Pakistani intelligence officers.
That hard-nosed attitude inevitably put him at odds with the American ambassador in Islamabad, Cameron Munter. A bookish career diplomat with a Ph.D. in history, Munter had ascended the ranks of the State Department's bureaucracy and accepted several postings in Iraq before ultimately taking over the American mission in Islamabad, in late 2010. The job was considered one of the State Department's most important and difficult assignments, and Munter had the burden of following Anne W. Patterson, an aggressive diplomat who, in the three years before Munter arrived, cultivated close ties to officials in the Bush and Obama administrations and won praise from the C.I.A. for her unflinching support for drone strikes in the tribal areas.
Munter saw some value to the drone program but was skeptical about the long-term benefits. Arriving in Islamabad at a time when relations between the United States and Pakistan were quickly deteriorating, Munter wondered whether the pace of the drone war might be undercutting relations with an important ally for the quick fix of killing midlevel terrorists. He would learn soon enough that his views about the drone program ultimately mattered little. In the Obama administration, when it came to questions about war and peace in Pakistan, it was what the C.I.A. believed that really counted.
With Davis sitting in prison, Munter argued that it was essential to go immediately to the head of the I.S.I. at the time, Lt. Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha, to cut a deal. The U.S. would admit that Davis was working for the C.I.A., and Davis would quietly be spirited out of the country, never to return again. But the C.I.A. objected. Davis had been spying on a militant group with extensive ties to the I.S.I., and the C.I.A. didn't want to own up to it. Top C.I.A. officials worried that appealing for mercy from the I.S.I. might doom Davis. He could be killed in prison before the Obama administration could pressure Islamabad to release him on the grounds that he was a foreign diplomat with immunity from local laws — even those prohibiting murder. On the day of Davis's arrest, the C.I.A. station chief told Munter that a decision had been made to stonewall the Pakistanis. Don't cut a deal, he warned, adding, Pakistan is the enemy.
The strategy meant that American officials, from top to bottom, had to dissemble both in public and in private about what exactly Davis had been doing in the country. On Feb. 15, more than two weeks after the shootings, President Obama offered his first comments about the Davis affair. The matter was simple, Obama said in a news conference: Davis, "our diplomat in Pakistan," should be immediately released under the "very simple principle" of diplomatic immunity. "If our diplomats are in another country," said the president, "then they are not subject to that country's local prosecution."
Calling Davis a "diplomat" was, technically, accurate. He had been admitted into Pakistan on a diplomatic passport. But there was a dispute about whether his work in the Lahore Consulate, as opposed to the American Embassy in Islamabad, gave him full diplomatic immunity under the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. And after the shootings in Lahore, the Pakistanis were not exactly receptive to debating the finer points of international law. As they saw it, Davis was an American spy who had not been declared to the I.S.I. and whom C.I.A. officials still would not admit they controlled. General Pasha, the I.S.I. chief, spoke privately by phone and in person with Leon Panetta, then the director of the C.I.A., to get more information about the matter. He suspected that Davis was a C.I.A. employee and suggested to Panetta that the two spy agencies handle the matter quietly. Meeting with Panetta, he posed a direct question.
Was Davis working for the C.I.A.? Pasha asked. No, he's not one of ours, Panetta replied. Panetta went on to say that the matter was out of his hands, and that the issue was being handled inside State Department channels. Pasha was furious, and he decided to leave Davis's fate in the hands of the judges in Lahore. The United States had just lost its chance, he told others, to quickly end the dispute.
That the C.I.A. director would be overseeing a large clandestine network of American spies in Pakistan and then lie to the I.S.I. director about the extent of America's secret war in the country showed just how much the relationship had unraveled since the days in 2002, when the I.S.I. teamed with the C.I.A. in Peshawar to hunt for Osama bin Laden in western Pakistan. Where had it gone so wrong?
While the spy agencies had had a fraught relationship since the beginning of the Afghan war, the first major breach came in July 2008, when C.I.A. officers in Islamabad paid a visit to Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the Pakistani Army chief, to tell him that President Bush had signed off on a set of secret orders authorizing a new strategy in the drone wars. No longer would the C.I.A. give Pakistan advance warning before launching missiles from Predator or Reaper drones in the tribal areas. From that point on, the C.I.A. officers told Kayani, the C.I.A.'s killing campaign in Pakistan would be a unilateral war.
The decision had been made in Washington after months of wrenching debate about the growth of militancy in Pakistan's tribal areas; a highly classified C.I.A. internal memo, dated May 1, 2007, concluded that Al Qaeda was at its most dangerous since 2001 because of the base of operations that militants had established in the tribal areas. That assessment became the cornerstone of a yearlong discussion about the Pakistan problem. Some experts in the State Department warned that expanding the C.I.A. war in Pakistan would further stoke anti-American anger on the streets and could push the country into chaos. But officials inside the C.I.A.'s Counterterrorism Center argued for escalating the drone campaign without the I.S.I.'s blessing. Since the first C.I.A. drone strike in Pakistan in 2004, only a small number of militants on the C.I.A.'s list of "high-value targets" had been killed by drone strikes, and other potential strikes were scuttled at the last minute because of delays in getting Pakistani approval, or because the targets seemed to have been tipped off and had fled.
So, in July 2008, when the C.I.A.'s director, Michael Hayden, and his deputy, Stephen Kappes, came to the White House to present the agency's plan to wage a unilateral war in the mountains of Pakistan, it wasn't a hard sell to a frustrated president. That began the relentless, years-long drone assault on the tribal areas that President Obama continued when he took office. And as the C.I.A.'s relationship with the I.S.I. soured, Langley sent station chiefs out to Islamabad who spent far less time and energy building up good will with Pakistani spies than their predecessors had. From 2008 on, the agency cycled a succession of seasoned case officers through Islamabad, and each left Pakistan more embittered than the last. One of them had to leave the country in haste when his identity was revealed in the Pakistani press. The C.I.A. suspected the leak came from the I.S.I.
Even many of the operations that at first seemed likely to signal a new era of cooperation between the C.I.A. and the I.S.I. ended in recriminations and finger-pointing. In January 2010, a clandestine team of C.I.A. officers and American special-operations troops working in Karachi traced a cellphone to a house in Baldia Town, a slum in the western part of the sprawling city. The C.I.A. did not conduct unilateral operations inside large Pakistani cities, so the Americans notified the I.S.I. about the intelligence. Pakistani troops and policemen launched a surprise raid on the house.
Although the C.I.A. didn't know in advance, hiding inside the house was Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a man considered to be the Afghan Taliban's military commander and the second in command to Mullah Muhammad Omar, the leader of the Taliban. Only after suspects in the house were arrested and questioned did the C.I.A. learn that Baradar was among the detainees. The I.S.I. took him to a detention facility in an industrial section of Islamabad and refused the C.I.A. access to him. "At that point, things got really complicated," one former C.I.A. officer said.
Was the entire episode a setup? Rumors had circulated inside Pakistan that Baradar wanted to cut a deal with the Americans and bring the Taliban to the negotiating table in Afghanistan. Had the I.S.I. somehow engineered the entire arrest, feeding intelligence to the C.I.A. so that Baradar could be taken off the street and the nascent peace talks spoiled? Had the I.S.I. played the C.I.A.? Months later, senior C.I.A. officials at Langley still couldn't answer those questions. Today, more than three years later, Mullah Baradar remains in Pakistani custody.
As Davis languished in the jail cell in Lahore, the C.I.A. was pursuing its most promising lead about the whereabouts of Osama bin Laden since 2001, when he escaped from Tora Bora, in Afghanistan, and fled across the border into Pakistan. A small group of officers inside the agency's Counterterrorism Center had become convinced that Bin Laden was hiding in a large compound in Abbottabad, a quiet hamlet north of Islamabad. For months, Panetta had been pushing clandestine officers to find a shred of hard proof that Bin Laden was hiding in the compound. The intelligence-gathering operating in Abbottabad had become the highest priority for the C.I.A. in Pakistan.
It was therefore more than a bit inconvenient that one of its undercover officers was sitting in a jail in Lahore facing a double murder charge. Pakistan's Islamist parties organized street protests and threatened violent riots if Raymond Davis was not tried and hanged for his crimes. American diplomats in Lahore regularly visited Davis, but the Obama administration continued to stonewall Pakistan's government about the nature of Davis's work in the country.
And then the episode claimed another victim. On Feb. 6, the grieving widow of one of Davis's victims swallowed a lethal amount of rat poison and was rushed to the hospital in Faisalabad, where doctors pumped her stomach. The woman, Shumaila Faheem, was certain that the United States and Pakistan would quietly broker a deal to release her husband's killer from prison, a view she expressed to her doctors from her hospital bed. "They are already treating my husband's murderer like a V.I.P. in police custody, and I am sure they will let him go because of international pressure," she said. She died shortly afterward and instantly became a martyr for anti-American groups inside Pakistan.
The furor over the Davis incident was quickly escalating, threatening to shut down most C.I.A. operations in the country and derail the intelligence-gathering operation in Abbottabad. But the C.I.A. stood firm and sent top officials to Islamabad, who told Ambassador Munter to stick to the strategy.
By then, though, Munter had decided that the C.I.A.'s strategy wasn't working, and eventually even high-level officials in the agency began to realize that stonewalling the Pakistanis was only causing the I.S.I. to dig in. After discussions among White House, State Department and C.I.A. officials in Washington, Munter approached General Pasha, the I.S.I. chief, and came clean. Davis was with the C.I.A., he said, and the United States needed to get him out of the country as quickly as possible. Pasha was fuming that Leon Panetta had lied to him, and he was going to make the Americans squirm by letting Davis sit in jail while he considered — on his own timetable — the best way to resolve the situation.
Back in Washington, Ambassador Haqqani was summoned to C.I.A. headquarters on Feb. 21 and taken into Panetta's spacious office overlooking the agency's campus in Langley, Va. Sitting around a large conference table, Panetta asked Haqqani for his help securing Davis's release.
"If you're going to send a Jason Bourne character to Pakistan, he should have the skills of a Jason Bourne to get away," Haqqani shot back, according to one person who attended the meeting.
More than a week later, General Pasha came back to Ambassador Munter to discuss a new strategy. It was a solution based on an ancient tradition that would allow the matter to be settled outside the unpredictable court system. The issue had already been discussed among a number of Pakistani and American officials, including Ambassador Haqqani in Washington. The reckoning for Davis's actions would come in the form of "blood money," or diyat, a custom under Shariah law that compensates the families of victims for their dead relatives. The matter would be handled quietly, and Davis would be released from jail.
Pasha ordered I.S.I. operatives in Lahore to meet the families of the three men killed during the January episode and negotiate a settlement. Some of the relatives initially resisted, but the I.S.I. negotiators were not about to let the talks collapse. After weeks of discussions, the parties agreed on a total of 200 million Pakistani rupees, approximately $2.34 million, to offer "forgiveness" to the jailed C.I.A. officer.
Only a small group of Obama administration officials knew of the talks, and as they dragged on, Lahore's high court was preparing to rule on whether Davis would be granted diplomatic immunity, a decision the C.I.A. expected to go against the United States and worried might set a precedent for future cases in Pakistan.
Davis remained in the dark about all of this. When he arrived for his court appearance on March 16, he was fully expecting to hear that the trial would proceed and that the judge would issue a new court date. He was escorted into the courtroom, his wrists cuffed in front of him, and locked inside an iron cage near the judge's bench. According to one person's account, General Pasha sat in the back of the courtroom, his cellphone out. He began sending out a stream of nervous text messages to Ambassador Munter, updating him about the court proceedings. Pasha was one of the most powerful men in Pakistan, and yet the I.S.I. had little control over the mercurial courts in Lahore, and he wasn't entirely sure that things would proceed according to plan.
The first part of the hearing went as everyone expected. The judge, saying that the case would go ahead, noted that his ruling on diplomatic immunity would come in a matter of days. Pakistani reporters frantically began filing their stories about how this seemed a blow to the American case, and that it appeared that Davis would not be released from jail anytime soon. But then the judge ordered the courtroom cleared, and General Pasha's secret plan unfolded.
Through a side entrance, 18 relatives of the victims walked into the room, and the judge announced that the civil court had switched to a Shariah court. Each of the family members approached Davis, some of them with tears in their eyes or sobbing outright, and announced that he or she forgave him. Pasha sent another text message to Munter: The matter was settled. Davis was a free man. In a Lahore courtroom, the laws of God had trumped the laws of man.
The drama played out entirely in Urdu, and throughout the proceeding, a baffled Davis sat silently inside the cage. He was even more stunned when I.S.I. operatives whisked him out of the courthouse through a back entrance and pushed him into a waiting car that sped to the Lahore airport.
The move had been choreographed to get Davis out of the country as quickly as possible. American officials, including Munter, were waiting for Davis at the airport, and some began to worry. Davis had, after all, already shot dead two men he believed were threatening him. If he thought he was being taken away to be killed, he might try to make an escape, even try to kill the I.S.I. operatives inside the car. When the car arrived at the airport and pulled up to the plane ready to take Davis out of Pakistan, the C.I.A. operative was in a daze. It appeared to the Americans waiting for him that Davis realized only then that he was safe.
The Davis affair led Langley to order dozens of covert officers out of Pakistan in the hope of lowering the temperature in the C.I.A. – I.S.I. relationship. Ambassador Munter issued a public statement shortly after the bizarre court proceeding, saying he was "grateful for the generosity" of the families and expressing regret for the entire incident and the "suffering it caused."
But the secret deal only fueled the anger in Pakistan, and anti-American protests flared in major cities, including Islamabad, Karachi and Lahore. Demonstrators set tires ablaze, clashed with Pakistani riot police and brandished placards with slogans like "I Am Raymond Davis, Give Me a Break, I Am Just a C.I.A. Hit Man."
The entire episode — and bin Laden's killing in Abbottabad later that spring — extinguished any lingering productive relations between the United States and Pakistan. Leon Panetta's relationship with General Pasha, the I.S.I. chief, was poisoned, and the already small number of Obama officials pushing for better relations between Washington and Islamabad dwindled even further. Munter was reporting daily back to Washington about the negative impact of the armed-drone campaign and about how the C.I.A. seemed to be conducting a war in a vacuum, oblivious to the ramifications that the drone strikes were having on American relations with Pakistan's government.
The C.I.A. had approval from the White House to carry out missile strikes in Pakistan even when the agency's targeters weren't certain about exactly whom they were killing. Under the rules of so-called "signature strikes," decisions about whether to fire missiles from drones could be made based on patterns of activity deemed suspicious. For instance, if a group of young "military-age males" were observed moving in and out of a suspected militant training camp and were thought to be carrying weapons, they could be considered legitimate targets. American officials admit it is nearly impossible to judge a person's age from thousands of feet in the air, and in Pakistan's tribal areas, adolescent boys are often among militant fighters. Using such broad definitions to determine who was a "combatant" and therefore a legitimate target allowed Obama administration officials at one point to claim that the escalation of drone strikes in Pakistan had not killed any civilians for a year. It was something of a trick of logic: in an area of known militant activity, all military-age males could be considered enemy fighters. Therefore, anyone who was killed in a drone strike there was categorized as a combatant.
The perils of this approach were laid bare on March 17, 2011, the day after Davis was released from prison and spirited out of the country. C.I.A. drones attacked a tribal council meeting in the village of Datta Khel, in North Waziristan, killing dozens of men. Ambassador Munter and some at the Pentagon thought the timing of the strike was disastrous, and some American officials suspected that the massive strike was the C.I.A. venting its anger about the Davis episode. More important, however, many American officials believed that the strike was botched, and that dozens of people died who shouldn't have.
Other American officials came to the C.I.A.'s defense, saying that the tribal gathering was in fact a meeting of senior militants and therefore a legitimate target. But the drone strike unleashed a furious response in Pakistan, and street protests in Lahore, Karachi and Peshawar forced the temporary closure of American consulates in those cities.
Munter said he believed that the C.I.A. was being reckless and that his position as ambassador was becoming untenable. His relationship with the C.I.A. station chief in Islamabad, already strained because of their disagreements over the handling of the Davis case, deteriorated even further when Munter demanded that the C.I.A. give him the chance to call off specific missile strikes. During one screaming match between the two men, Munter tried to make sure the station chief knew who was in charge, only to be reminded of who really held the power in Pakistan.
"You're not the ambassador!" Munter shouted.
"You're right, and I don't want to be the ambassador," the station chief replied.
This turf battle spread to Washington, and a month after Bin Laden was killed, President Obama's top advisers were arguing in a National Security Council meeting over who really was in charge in Pakistan. At the June 2011 meeting, Munter, who participated via secure video link, began making his case that he should have veto power over specific drone strikes.
Panetta cut Munter off, telling him that the C.I.A. had the authority to do what it wanted in Pakistan. It didn't need to get the ambassador's approval for anything.
"I don't work for you," Panetta told Munter, according to several people at the meeting.
But Secretary of State Hillary Clinton came to Munter's defense. She turned to Panetta and told him that he was wrong to assume he could steamroll the ambassador and launch strikes against his approval.
"No, Hillary," Panetta said, "it's you who are flat wrong."
There was a stunned silence, and National Security Adviser Tom Donilon tried to regain control of the meeting. In the weeks that followed, Donilon brokered a compromise of sorts: Munter would be allowed to object to specific drone strikes, but the C.I.A. could still press its case to the White House and get approval for strikes even over the ambassador's objections. Obama's C.I.A. had, in essence, won yet again.
As for Raymond Davis, he tried to settle back into his life in the United States after being flown out of Pakistan. He found work as a firearms instructor, but in the end he couldn't stay out of trouble. On Oct. 1, 2011, just seven months after his abrupt departure from Pakistan, Davis was eyeing a parking spot in front of a bagel shop in Highlands Ranch, Colo., a suburb of Denver. So was Jeffrey Maes, a 50-year-old minister who was driving with his wife and two young daughters. When Maes beat Davis to the spot, Davis shouted profanities through his open window. Then he jumped out of his car and confronted Maes, telling the minister that he had been waiting for the parking spot.
According to an affidavit given by Maes, he told Davis to "relax and quit being stupid."
Davis struck Maes in the face, knocking him to the pavement. Maes said in court that when he stood up from the fall, Davis continued to hit him. The minister's wife, later recalling the episode, said she had never in her life seen a man so full of rage. Just last month, after protracted legal proceedings, Davis pleaded guilty to a charge of third-degree misdemeanor assault and was sentenced to two years of probation. A judge ordered him to pay restitution and attend anger-management classes.
On the streets and in the markets of Pakistan, Raymond Davis remains the boogeyman, an American killer lurking in the subconscious of a deeply insecure nation. On a steamy summer night last summer, Hafiz Muhammad Saeed — the head of Lashkar-e-Taiba and the reason Davis and his team were sent to Lahore in the first place — stood on the back of a flatbed truck and spoke to thousands of cheering supporters less than a mile from Pakistan's Parliament building in Islamabad. A $10 million American bounty still hung over Saeed's head, part of a broader squeeze on Lashkar-e-Taiba's finances. But there he was, out in the open and whipping the crowd into a fury with a pledge to "rid Pakistan of American slavery." The rally was the culmination of a march from Lahore to Islamabad that Saeed ordered to protest American involvement in the country. The night before the march reached the capital, six Pakistani troops were killed by gunmen riding motorcycles not far from where the marchers were spending the night, leading to speculation that Saeed had ordered the attack.
But Saeed insisted that night that he was not to blame for the deaths. The killers were foreigners, he told the crowd, a group of assassins with a secret agenda to destabilize Pakistan and steal its nuclear arsenal. With a dramatic flourish, he said he knew exactly who had killed the men.
"It was the Americans!" he shouted to loud approvals. "It was Blackwater!" The cheers grew even louder. He saved the biggest applause line for last: "It was another Raymond Davis!"
This article is adapted from "The Way of the Knife: The C.I.A., a Secret Army, and a War at the Ends of the Earth," published by the Penguin Press.
Mark Mazzetti is a national-security correspondent for The Times. He shared a 2009 Pulitzer Prize for coverage of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Editor: Joel Lovell


Yousuf Masti Khan -Pakistan Labour Party --Brilliantly Sums up the hopeless Pakistani State

Masti Khan of Pakistan Workers Party speaking on some Pakistani channels was bold and brilliant .


The gist of his talk was :--

1-The USA is allied with the Pakistani army not with people of Pakistan.

2-The Pakistani political and military leadership gets orders from USA because they are paid by USA in hard cash !

3-USA supports Saudi Arabia the most repressive regime in the world so how it expects the Muslim masses to believe that USA stands for democracy.food for thought.100 Marks to Mr Masti Khan from Balochistan.Such boldness is difficult to find anywhere other than Balochistan.

I dont think that all Pakistani channels mostly sponsored by Pakistani major political parties or pakistani military will dare to invite a truly honest man on TV again !






Agha Amin








Yusuf Masti Khan is a bold and daring progressive thinker from Balochistan.

I was lucky to see him once on TV.He spoke boldly and forthrightly that Pakistan is nothing but a vassal of USA and pakistans army is in reality an army of USA !

Pakistan is a country where any man who states the truth is branded as anti state while its foundation was based on collaboration !

The most genuine people were jailed , tortured and killed in this so called state !

He rarely comes on Pakistani TV because most of the characters you see on pakistani TV are men of straw with no guts and totally intellectually dishonest !




Many years ago I had discussed pakistans mercenary history in my article published in PRAVDA in October2001 :--




The Indo Pak Armies and Their Mercenary Calling 

by   

A.H Amin

PRAVDA-Sep 2001




AGHA.H.AMIN 

STATELESS MAN AND CITIZEN OF WILDERNESS

JALA KAY MASHAL I JAAN HUM JANOON SIFAAT CHALAY ,JO GHAR KO AAG LAGAYAY HAMATAY SAATH CHALAY



Pravda.RU:Main:More in detail
16:20 2001-09-24
A.H.AMIN:


THE INDO-PAK ARMIES AND THEIR MERCENARY CALLING



As the adage aptly describes, there is nothing worse than to do the right thing for the wrong reason. We may modify it slightly by rephrasing it as doing the right thing, or the supposedly right thing, for the wrong reason! The pre-1947 Indian Army was a mercenary army composed of villagers from barren, rain-irrigated areas of India! These mercenaries were employed against their own people right from 1757!


The Sepoys (as these mercenaries were called) fought for money just like the Senegalese in French occupied Africa fought for money! These mercenaries comprised many nationalities and religions. They killed the Santhals in Bengal and the Martathas in Central India; they destroyed Tipu Sultan in 1799; they fought against the freedom fighters of 1857 when a greater part of the Hindustani mercenaries rebelled against the British masters! They fought against the Punjabi Sikhs, who later on were enlisted as mercenaries!


They fought against the Afghans in three wars during 1839-42, 1878-80, and in 1919. In addition, they fought in countless expeditions in the Trans-Indus Frontier from 1843 to 1946, destroying livestocks, razing villages to the ground, and destroying wells. Internationally, these mercenaries fought against the Muslim Turks in the First Great War, against the Chinese in the Opium Wars and the Boxer Rebellion, and against the Germans and in the First and Second World Wars: all races that had nothing against India! In short, these men fought for a living against anyone, whether they be Muslim Christian, Buddhist, Indian, Turkish, German, or Chinese for a living!





Espirit de Corps was a cleverly coined British ploy to galvanize these mercenaries. There were exceptions to the mercenary rule. In 1857, the Bengal Army, some three-fourths of which was Hindustani Hindu led by one fourth Hindustani and Ranghar Muslims mostly from cavalry that rebelled against the English East India Company! Unfortunately, India was not a country, and the English Company found eager mercenaries in the northwest! They were eager to loot Delhi and panting to get land grants, Jangi Inams, and many more carrots that the cunning English colonials promised!


Opportunism became the rule of Indian society, now known as Indo Pak, whether it was poets, educationists, lawyers, civil servants, or soldiers! The Indians were a defeated people and they thought that the White man was invincible! There were some exceptions to apathy when Sher Ali, a tall, muscular Pathan, stabbed the British Viceroy Mayo in the Andaman Islands in 1872!

Lord Mayo Viceroy of India stabbed to death by Sher Ali Afridi in 1872.Only an Afridi and a tribal Pashtuncould have done it ! They are the only ones with some spine left ! HA HA HA



However, Sher Ali Afridi was an exception, and most Indians were far more pragmatic and opportunistic than a Pathan convict in Andamans!

Sher Ali Afridi who was not a mercenary ,but an Afridi is an Afridi




Thus, nobody remembers Sher Ali today except the Pashtun Students Federation, where his photograph tops the gallery of heroes!
Like a blossom today then scattered, how can the fragrance last forever ,


Sher Ali was ,however, an exception, and sycophancy and appeasement remained the cardinal lifescripts of most Indians.
Sher Ali Afridi





Some motivated Pathans of the tribal area minus the more opportunistic people of Mardan Charsadda Swabi Kohat and D.I Khan carried at the struggle that had its origins in Sayyid Ahmad Brelvis guerrilla war. Then came the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05!

 The myth of European superiority was broken! Some audacious men, mostly Bengali Hindus, decided to strike back! A bold man called Rash Behari Bose actually attacked the British Viceroy Charles Hardinge with a bomb containing gramophone needles and nails while he was entering Delhi in 1813. Unfortunately, Bihari failed to kill the viceroy. However, terror struck at the heart of the British!

So what if he was not a Muslim , he is and will remain our hero , because he was one!



Their viceroy was attacked not in far flung Andaman Islands but in the newly created imperial capital Delhi and not by a Wahabi but by a highly educated Bengali Hindu. Rash Bihari escaped, but the Indian Army did not wake up from the slumber of their mercenary sleep. The First World War was yet another testing ground for the mercenary Indian Army. In the words of one British historian, the Punjabi Muslims stood staunch as a rock while there was a question mark over the Pathans.





He did not ,however, add that these disloyal Pathans were not from settled districts of Mardan or Charsadda Kohat or Peshawar but from the tribal areas and from D.I Khan. Some Indian military men were ashamed of their degrading mercenary status and did rebel against the British.


Notable among these were the Hindustani Muslim Ranghars of the 5th Light Infantry, who for some time captured Singapore;


The real patriots , men of 125th Light Infantry ,  Singapore 1915


the Afridis of various Frontier Force Units, notably the indomitable Mir Mast Afridi; and some Mahsuds from the Mahsud Companies of the 129 and 130 Baluchis. Lastly, there were the Pathan Squadrons of Curetons 15 Lancers (the Punjabi Muslim Squadrons remaining pragmatically loyal).

Mehsud warriors fighting against British






Waziristan being bombed 1919


All these men died, but all men are mortal. Is it death that our rulers are afraid of or is it a billion dollar package that will give them immortality? Is collaboration at the rate of few billion the golden lesson that they are leaving for posterity? A pragmatic lesson one must say. One important development took place during the First World War.


 The Sikh Ghadrites, a group of Punjabis, some Hindus, and mostly Sikhs, did manage to subvert the Indian Army from their mercenary calling. They did not succeed, but many soldiers of scribes unit 23 Cavalry were court martialled and executed for conspiracy against British Empire.





On the whole, the Indian Army remained staunch even when martial law was imposed in Punjab in 1919, Gujranwala was bombed, many civilians flogged or made to crawl in the public, and many hundreds of civilians were killed by the army. The only inspiring incident of the Indian Army not being a mercenary force occurred in the 1930s, when the Garhwali Hindus soldiers of a unit of the Royal Garhwal Rifles refused to fire on the Pathan Muslim Redshirts demonstrating against the British.

Chandar Singh Garhwali who despite being a Hindu refused to open fire as a soldier of Garhwal Regiment at Peshawar in 1930.He was dismissed from the army and later elected as a member of parliament on Indian National Congress ticket



The Indian Army remained largely loyal in WW II, minus the Indian National Army in Burma. By and large, Indian independence had no connection with the Indian Army, who remained loyal mercenaries to the end to their British masters.


 In India Nehru reduced the army to its correct place, i.e. a servile instrument of policy of the civilians. In Pakistan, because the Muslim League the political party that led Pakistan, there was an a party of soldiers with a mercenary past, and with nothing to do with the political struggle to free India, they were able to usurp power.


 Since they were leaders of a mercenary army rather than a national army, they made the USA their godfather, making professions of being the vanguard of the USA, whether it was the protection of Anglo-Iranian Oil Fields or supporting Anglo-French claims over the Suez Canal. In the process of this abject appeasement, they managed an aid package from the USA. This was sufficient to make the Pakistan Army a sophisticated army but insufficient to win a war against India, not because of material reasons, but because of poor higher leadership and strategic and operational ineptness.





All throughout this period, the common Pakistani was anti-US anti-West, pro-Arab, and pro-Muslim. However, the common man was only a servile tool , democracy having been destroyed by 1958. The army remained a mercenary army with little national participation. It fought the 1965 War well, albeit at a battalion level, since beyond the battalion level, the more senior ranks were ones who had been programmed by the pre-1947 British to be company commanders at best. The 1965 War proved to be a watershed in Pakistani history, since it made clear the fact that the army was not a national army , since it was without participation from the country's east wing!

 This fact was realized by General Yahya, the new C in C, but it was too late. The result was a civil war followed by defeat in a conventional war and the break up of Pakistan into two states. Few lessons were learnt, and soon, the country's first post-1946 democratically elected government was dismissed amidst allegations of superpower involvement.


The army came with a 90-day promise to hold elections, which were never held. The gap between the people and the army grew, and the situation was saved only by the fact that the Zia military junta found a new master, more correctly a new paymaster, in the USA once the USSR invaded Afghanistan. For next nine years, Pakistan fought the USA's war against communism, only to be conveniently discarded like an syringe with a decade long life. A syringe used to inject poison into the Red Army and then thrown into the incinerator of history! Within three years of the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan, the USA was all keen to declare Pakistan a terrorist state; the Americans have short memories.


Something like an impromptu encounter with a lass in a bar, followed by an expression of eternal love and everything forgotten the next day after the desired objective is achieved. Suddenly, in September 2001, precisely on the 11th of September, the USA suddenly woke up from a thirteen-year attack of insomnia and remembered that they had a very close friend called Pakistan: cheap friend led by a machine with a mercenary past. Thus, the latest US-Pakistan nexus.


What is the motivation of Pakistan's military elite to appease the USA? They are a bunch of men who came into power in an impromptu manner and suffer from a crisis of legitimacy. Since the end of the Cold War, mercenaries were no longer in demand and Pakistan's standing army was getting little aid from USA or any potential mercenary masters. The strikes September, 11th 2001 changed everything! Once again, Pakistan's elite got a chance that they had last received in 1979. Because they had missed one in the 1990-91 Gulf War, this time they are in no mood to miss another!


Their mercenary calling has been given a God-given opportunity! Without any deliberation, the military junta gave the US near divine status and offered their mercenary services against a neighbouring Muslim country.





Soon, this stand was rationalized by the military dictator in the name of Pakistan's best interest; that India would benefit if Pakistan did not go on its knees to appease the Americans; that the Israelis would attack Pakistan; that the USA was lesser of the two evils. Pakistan, the so-called bastion of Islam despite its 500,000 man army and an arsenal of nuclear weapons, is literally crawling in diplomatic language to appease the Americans. If this state created in the name of Islam is so vulnerable, then it should be declared the fifty-first state of the USA. It be a Puerto Rico or Panama with a US military presence.



 Why all the macho talk about being Momins and soldiers of Allah?

Macho soldier of Islam is at his knees on one phone call from Uncle Bush,HA HA HA

The macho soldier ! HA HA HA



Soldiers of Allah who will be doing sentry duty around prospective airfields from where US aircrafts would fly to subject Afghanistan to fire and destruction! If a few billion dollars are so important, then what is the difference between Sepoy Khudadad who fought for 18 Rupees a month in the 1920s for the King and against his enemies?





If this country cannot survive without oil imported for free or on a subsidized rate from a neighbouring country, why waste the tax payers' money on a foreign ministry that consumes some 28 crores per day!

God may have made us poor, but we became Be Ghairat (Shameless) by our own choice! There have been too many strange coincidences in the last month. The death of General G.A Khan, the descendant of the indomitable Alizais who defied British orders to fight against the Turks in Mesopotamia 1915 in Mesopotamia.


 The reader may note that the 15 Lancersso was an all-Muslim unit, but only its less pragmatic Pathan Squadrons refused to fight against the Turks, while the more pragmatic Punjabi Muslim Squadron obeyed orders like sheep. At the time of the blast, Pakistan's top intelligence official was in USA. The Chinese decided to make a port at Gwadar, which could also be a naval base. The Talibans were close to complete victory in Afghanistan!


The year 2001 is a watershed in Pakistani history. Either Pakistan will be condemned to be a country ruled by mercenaries, or it will became a true republic, an Islamic Republic or whatever one may call it. Are we so weak that one threat from a bully with an average IQ sends our leaders , so-called martial men who wear camouflage commando jackets, a clear and total violation of the army dress code, of the Pakistan army down to their knees?





What is the use of a Chinese policy if one ultimatum evaporates all the resolution that our military leaders are supposed to have? It makes one think whether or not the Holy Kaaba is in Mecca or a few thousand miles further West. To stab your neighbor in order to gain a few billion is being rationalised as pragmatic foreign policy. Even a courtesan called Hazrat Mahal did not collaborate with the British, fighting the war of Independence in Lucknow.


She did not surrender even once Lucknow was recaptured in March 1858 and died in exile in Nepal. Pragmatism would have meant accepting a pension that the British offered her and settling in India. However, this dancing girl was not a mercenary! What has happened? Our rulers have accepted the role of glorified coolies and camp followers of the USA! This country's rulers had sold their souls in 1954 once the first major treaty with USA was signed. After a great deal of kicking during the period of 1990-1999, they regained some pride.

The year 2001 has robbed this nation from being a nation of resolute man. We have been auctioned for a few billion dollars. Auctioned because a superpower wants access to the strategic underbelly of Russia and China. Auctioned because of valid strategic reasons. Our leaders have not learnt anything from Machiavelli, whom they do try or claim to read.

The men who collaborate with any superior power or play bargaining games with it are the first targets. Thus, the fate of Liaquat in 1951, the fate of Bhutto who defied USA but died a martyrs death  in 1979, and that of Zia in 1988 a collaborator mercenary. We have everything written on the wall. Its only the lack of perception that makes us blind. Even Russia and China will be the losers!

Is this helicopter for external enemies or killing your own people ! HA HA HA



 This so-called attack will stop on the Oxus River or at the Wakhan Strip. It will spread on into Chinese Turkestan (Sinkiang), Tajikistan, Kazakhastan, and to the Urals. If there is a minor Muslim separatist threat in China or Russia today, after a few years, these separatists will be getting Stingers to fight with until Siberia, Central Asia, Azerbaijan, and Sinkiang are sattellites of the Western powers. The Iranians are secretly rejoicing, but they must not forget that a Sunni Afghanistan is less of a threat than an Afghanistan administered under a US or UN mandate.

 The Talibans in all probability may be crushed, but Afghan nationalism will survive! Their will be new groups, new Ahmad Shah's, nd new Hikmatyars who will fight a new Holy war against US occupation with Chinese- and Russian-supplied weapons, such as those from the CIA during 1979-88.


The Russians must forget how the USA had behaved when they occupied Afghanistan in 1979. 14,000 Russians died, most because of of weapons supplied to the Afghan resistance by CIA. The USSR must redress the balance of 1979-88 during 2001-10. Let the invaders come and settle down in Kabul and Kandahar and then send gifts of 100 body bags each day to their home country!


Is this country a private security agency that can be hired for a few billion dollars? If that is the case, why not lease our forces to fight as mercenaries as they did before 1947? Never in Pakistani history was collaboration so openly defended and propagated. Even Finland, a country far smaller than Pakistan, fought without US or British aid honorably for a certain duration of time. Are the Indians such a threat that we have to compete with them in being timid and shameless? The mercenary calling of our state has once again triumphed! The "bastion of Islam" is too weak to withstand one verbal volley of a man who is angry about something that has happened many thousand miles away from this country.


To compound things further, we have journalists, thinkers, and so-called experts busy writing articles for Hazoor ka Iqbal Buland Karna! Opportunism, which was instilled in us by the British in 1757, has once again triumphed! Two countries were created in the name of religionto date,i.e., Israel and Pakistan. Israel has fought for its ideology. Ironically, Pakistan has retained its mercenary character. Wrong, forever on the throne and truth, forever on the Scaffold!


A.H.Amin Major Agha Humayun Amin (Retired) is an ex-tank corps officer and a military writer and correspondent. He is the author of two books on the Pakistan army. He has been the executive editor of Globe Karachi and a military writer.


Major (R) Agha H. Amin on Pakistani Dialogue with Taliban

The Barack Conspiracy by Masadi

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04 November, 2008

The Barack Conspiracy by Masadi

WE MAY NOT NECESSARILY AGREE WITH MASADI .BUT THIS IS A VIEW FROM A PROFESSOR WHO WAS EDUCATED IN USA .WE FURTHER HOPE THAT THE SINISTER SCENARIO THAT MASADI IS HYPOTHESIZING IS NOT TRUE.FOR WHAT HE WRITES BARRACK WILL BE DISCREDITED THROUGH A DELIBERATE PLAN ? 

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The Barack Conspiracy:--

The Barack Conspiracy: How to Salvage a Collapsing System

M. Asadi

Conspiracy is not the modus operandi of the U.S. elite, the institutional structure at their command operates 'sui generis' to reproduce a system it is designed to maintain, with minor glitches that social control agencies like law enforcement can take care of. Such is the state of affairs in "normal" times. The meetings in dark rooms where policies get constructed and exceptional people chosen, made or broken, becomes a necessity only in times of crisis. Nothing brings the power elite together as a 'status group' than when their class structure and its projected ideology are threatened with extinction.

We are currently going through such an abnormal period, a time of crisis both in economic terms for the global capitalist structure and in terms of legitimating ideology. Therefore there was a need for 'conspiracy', a need for the power elite to meet in dark rooms to plan a way out of this mess with the least "real" adjustment required. Recently, the IMF termed the U.S financial crisis as potentially the worst global downturn since the "Great Depression" (The Guardian, April 10, 2008). To add to the economic woes of an elite whose system is collapsing at its very foundations, we notice a collapse in the ideology, the system legitimacy mechanism that involves militarized capitalism, the military metaphysic of this elite (as described by C.W. Mills). The U.S. Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) has not pulled off well either at home or in the international arena. According to the 2008 Pew Global Attitudes Survey, even though the U.S received an overwhelmingly negative review in this 54 country survey, there was a slight bump in the positive direction in 10 countries (compared to 2007). Pew implicitly attributes this improvement to "… many people around the world paying close attention to the U.S. presidential election" (Ref.1), and anticipating a change in U.S. foreign and economic policy, they support Barack Obama over John McCain. A similar trend regarding 'change' is seen domestically (inside the U.S) as well (Ref.2).

The solution to this crisis unforeseen since the Great Depression would be another New Deal type unprecedented move, where the capitalist system threatened with extinction is salvaged by incorporating socialist ideals into its machinery in a watered-down form. It would require an unprecedented move, on the scale of a Civil Rights Act of 1964, where the racially segmented structure threatened with collapse due to rebellion was salvaged by a powerless though legal framework and encouraged towards 'benign failure' thereafter. With the global capitalist system threatened with collapse and together with it the globe's racially segmented class structure, the solution the power elite have come up with is a conspiracy of enormous proportions, a combination of the New Deal and the Civil Rights Act: Barack Obama. Obama in his rise as a candidate not only personifies change in his person, a change that is deeply desired by the majority world, an anti-neo colonial change, which in effect is an anti-'White domination' change, he also represents in his image economic and foreign policy change as well, a move away from the crony and militarized capitalism of the Bush era. He has been socially constructed by the U.S. elite as a conspiracy par excellence, in that he embodies the caricature of the desires of the U.S. as well as world public that have been brought to life so to speak, objectified in the form of a living breathing person. In many ways, the rise of McCain as the "expendable" Republican candidate and the 'bad advice' that led to the choice of Sarah Palin as running mate, and the media's destruction of her was preplanned as a "set up" for failure. In other words, the system would be threatened by "more of the same" under McCain, so a candidate of "change" had to be constructed, and victory for him ensured. On the other hand the choice of Biden as Obama's running mate is to ensure another Dick Cheney-like establishment politician to keep the president in check. If that is true, and let this be a falsifiable test of what is written above, Obama will win the elections, no questions asked, no surprises, October or otherwise expected.

What will be the end result of Barack Obama's election as President of the United States? For one thing, the global economic crisis will not vanish in his first term in office, causing great discontent among the people who had pinned high hopes on him. The result of this 'failure' as planned by the U.S. elite would be to play upon the well developed stereotypes of Blacks in the U.S as 'good for nothing', to discredit Black leadership well into the future. Barack Obama might well be the first and the last (one term only) Black U.S president ever. What it does do is maintain the racial boundaries by such "objective failure" both in the U.S and around the globe while at the same time buying time for a system that oppresses the many to stabilize itself. Second, the militarized capitalism of which the masses in the U.S and around the globe are wary will also be legitimized using Obama. The GWOT (global war on terrorism) will engulf Pakistan, and might require U.S troops occupying large areas of the country's western frontier, setting the stage for an Iran invasion. There will be little change if any in the foreign policy arena. As far as U.S reputation around the globe is concerned, it will improve, but not due to Obama's leadership, in fact due to his perceived failure because blame now will be placed on an "other", a well constructed "other" and not the visible face of the U.S that is always White. In the unforeseen (and unexpected) circumstance of the "Barack Conspiracy" backfiring or producing unintended consequences, he will not be allowed to last in office. 

References:

(1)http://pewglobal. org/reports/display.php?ReportID=260 (retrieved October 20, 2008)

(2)http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/custom/2006/02/02/CU200 60 20201345. html (retrieved October 20, 2008)

p.s. Chowk has been down for the last couple of days, did this article have anything to do with it? Your CIA sponsors bothered by it? Anyway:

In addition I would like to add that the falsifiable part (in my writing above) doesn't have much force when he is ahead in the polls (and I concur) but the election of a 'black' man is quite unprecedented and therefore unexpected, despite the polls. I guess the greater falsification lies in the results after his election and whether he lasts in office after any major change. 

I think the recent (part) nationalization of banks (if it goes through) was a big change viz-a-viz the U.S. political economy, but only because they were forced to, and it is that "force" which is calling for change (both domestic and international) that they are trying to manipulate their way out of using Obama as "symbol". In that context the Reverend Wright issue as well as the 'Obama is Muslim' issue was deliberately floated and pushed for foreign consumption (as a positive, especially in regard to the ME where a lot of damage has been done during the past two Bush terms), and not for domestic consumption, and as a result it did have a much bigger effect on the foreign audience, as positive than it did on the domestic one, as negative .


From:--

www.chowk.com

3 comments:

  1. It is indeed very odd that USA elects someone whose first name is after Prophet Muhammad's mythical horse of his ascent to Heaven, the middle name is the same as the Iraqi dictator, and the last name rhymes with the terrorist of Tora Bora.

    ReplyDelete
  2. is this humour or sarcasm mohtaram?

    ReplyDelete
  3. It's mostly sarcasm!

Dr Baland Iqbal (Toronto) on garrison state

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Dr Ishtiaq Ahmed - Pakistan The Garrison State - Password Ep31

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    Dear All,

    Dr Baland Iqbal is a leading compere at a major community television in Canada, Rawal. He interviewed me on my new book, Pakistan: The Garrison State, Origins, Evolution, Consequences (1947-2011) on 7 August. We talked on the phone.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1--WoYE9MA

    Best Regards,

    Dr Ishtiaq Ahmed

    Visiting Professor, LUMS, Pakistan; Professor Emeritus of Political Science, Stockholm University; and Honorary Senior Fellow, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore. Latest publications: Winner of the Best Non-Fiction Book award at the Karachi Literature Festival: The Punjab Bloodied, Partitioned and Cleansed), Oxford, 2012; and, Pakistan: The Garrison State, Origins, Evolution, Consequences (1947-2011), Oxford, 2013.  He can be reached at: billumian@gmail.com


    OBAMA POLICY CREATES A NEW EXTREMIST HEARTLAND IN SYRIA-ELECT A KENYAN MUSLIM AND FACE THE MUSIC

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    OBAMA POLICY CREATES A NEW EXTREMIST HEARTLAND IN SYRIA-ELECT A KENYAN MUSLIM AND FACE THE MUSIC

    ELECT A COMMUNITY MOBILISER AND ENJOY HOW HE PLAYS HELL WITH US FOREIGN POLICY.

    AGHA H AMIN





    As Foreign Fighters Flood Syria, Fears of a New Extremist Haven

    Hamid Khatib/Reuters

    Free Syrian Army fighters near the Menagh air base in Aleppo Province, which rebels captured this week after months of trying.

    BEIRUT, Lebanon — As foreign fighters pour into Syria at an increasing clip, extremist groups are carving out pockets of territory that are becoming havens for Islamist militants, posing what United States and Western intelligence officials say may be developing into one of the biggest terrorist threats in the world today.

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    Rebel fighters near the Menagh air base last month.

    Known as fierce fighters willing to employ suicide car bombs, the jihadist groups now include more than 6,000 foreigners, counterterrorism officials say, adding that such fighters are streaming into Syria in greater numbers than went into Iraq at the height of the insurgency there against the American occupation.

    Many of the militants are part of the Nusra Front, an extremist group whose fighters have gained a reputation over the past several months as some of the most effective in the opposition.

    But others are assembling under a new, even more extreme umbrella group, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, that is merging some Syrians with fighters from around the world — Chechnya, Pakistan, Egypt and the West, as well as Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Sunni insurgent group that rose to prominence in the fight against the American occupation in the years after the 2003 invasion. The concern is that a new affiliate of Al Qaeda could be emerging from those groups.

    It was the fear of militants coming to dominate the opposition that caused the United States and its Western allies to hold off providing lethal aid to the Syrian opposition, at least until now. But as a result, counterterrorism analysts say, they lost a chance to influence the battle in Syria. Even Congressional supporters of the C.I.A.'s covert program to arm moderate elements of the Syrian opposition fear the delivery of weapons, set to begin this month, will be too little, too late.

    The stakes are high. American intelligence officials said this week that Ayman al-Zawahri, the overall leader of Al Qaeda in Pakistan, has had regular communications with the Nusra Front in Syria, reflecting how favorably the Qaeda leadership views the long-term potential for Syria as a safe haven. Juan Zarate, a former senior counterterrorism official in the George W. Bush administration, said that Syria lay in the center of an arc of instability, stretching from Iran through North Africa, and "in that zone, you may have the regeneration and resurrection of a new brand of Al Qaeda."

    In Syria, the battle lines have hardened in recent months. The Syrian government, backed by Iran and Hezbollah, has seized new momentum and retaken territory in the south and east from the rebels. At the same time, power within the badly fractured opposition, numbering about 1,200 groups, has steadily slipped into the hands of the jihadists based in the northeast, where this week they seized a strategic airport in the area. They also hold sway in the provincial capital of Raqqa.

    The idea that Syria could supplant Pakistan as the primary haven for Al Qaeda someday, should the government fall, is a heavy blow to the Western-backed Syrian opposition and its military arm, the Free Syrian Army. It plays directly into the hands of Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, whose government has sought to portray itself as the only alternative to Islamic extremism and chaos and has made the prospect of full-on American support even more remote than it already was.

    Mr. Assad's argument "began as a fiction during the period of peaceful, unarmed protests but is now a reality" because of Mr. Assad's own efforts to divide the country as well as the success of the extremists, Hussein Ibish, a senior fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine, wrote in a recent essay that appeared in The National.

    In Raqqa recently, a commander of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria sipped coffee after breaking the Ramadan fast, wearing a Pakistani-style outfit. The commander, Abu Omar, was Syrian, a member of a tribe in the area, but he described his movement's goals as reaching far beyond the country's borders.

    He did not speak of attacking the United States. But he threatened Russia, and he spoke of a broad-based battle against Shiite-led Iran and its quest to dominate the region, and said Sunnis from across the world were justified in flocking to Syria to fight because of the government's reliance on Shiite fighters from Lebanon and Iraq.




    The volatility of Gas, Geo-Politics and the Greater Middle East. An Interview with Major Agha H. Amin

    The volatility of Gas, Geo-Politics and the Greater Middle East. An Interview with Major Agha H. Amin

    Posted on February 1, 2013 by 

    The volatility of Gas, Geo-Politics and the Greater Middle East. An Interview with Major Agha H. Amin

    Mijn fotoMajor Agha H. Amin is a retired Pakistani military officer and the author of various books, including "Development of Taliban Factions in Afghanistan", "Taliban War in Afghanistan" and "History of Pakistan Army". He studied at the Forman Christian College and at the Pakistan Military Academy in Kalkul. Agha H. Amin has been working as Assistant Editor of Defense Journal, Executive Editor at the Globe, and as Editor of the Journal of Afghanistan Studies. He is an active member of the Think Tank ORBAT and the Alexandrian Defense Group and he is working as security management consultant. Agha H. Amin has been working as consultant on various oil, gas and energy projects in Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan, including the TAPI pipeline, CASA 100, the Uzbekistan Afghanistan Pakistan line and the Turkmenistan Mazar Sharif line. He is an expert on national and regional security, energy security and geo-political issues. The following is the full text of an interview by Christof Lehmann with Major Agha H. Amin from 30 January 2013.

    CL. Not long ago we were discussing the situation in Syria, and the fact that the root cause for the attempted subversion of Syria is the 10 billion USD PARS gas pipeline project from Iran, via Iraq and Syria to the Easter Mediterranean Coast, the most important factors being the political leverage Iran would acquire if it, together with Russia provided more than 40 % of the gas consumed in the EU over the coming 100 – 120 years, a US and a US and UK attempt to sabotage the further integration of the continental European and Russian national economies and energy sectors. Both high ranking members of the Workers Party Turkey and retired Turkish military officers accuse the AKP government of Prime Minister R. Tayyip Erdogan of being involved in the implementation of the Greater Middle East Project, developed by the RAND Corporation for the US Defense Department in 1996. This plan includes the "balkanization" of Turkey into smaller states. We discussed a possible plan to establish a NATO Corridor from Turkey to India. In our discussion you said: "I would like to add to them that the establishment of the Kurdistan part of the corridor would significantly change the security dynamics of the Russian South Stream gas pipeline which is part of the causes for the war on Syria." Could you please brief us on the most important factors with regard to the security dynamics of the Russian South Stream gas pipeline ?

    AHA. The strategic idea of NATO, is aiming at securing the northern borders of Israel against Hezbollah and the southern borders against Hamas; to eliminate the Russian naval base in the eastern Mediterranean, Syrian city of Tartous. NATO is planning to create a western strategic corridor to maintain energy-security in the case that oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted because of a war with Iran or otherwise.

    Kurdish+Syrian+Strat+ScenarioOne of the first steps toward the implementation of the long-term strategic plan, is the partition of Turkey by creating separate Kurdish areas, thereby providing NATO a direct access to Russia´s soft underbelly in the Caucasus.

    This can ideally be used to dominate the Caucasian oil as well as support the Chechen against Russia in a low intensity conflict. Also, to create a viable independent Kurd state, it would need a windpipe access to the sea. This can be provided via the southern coast of Turkey and the Northern Coast of Syria. Whether a Syrian government soldier or a Syrian Islamist "Nut" dies in the process, "both are equally beneficial to the US/NATO".

    The cardinal strategic idea is to internalize the war within the Islamic world so that Europe and the USA become safer while the enemies of western civilization destroy each other.

    NATO is a club of wolves and Turkey is the odd wolf in NATO. Once the wolves have eaten Syria, they will eat the odd wolf Turkey. Yes, Turkey has been getting huge funds from Saudi Arabia, especially the clown Islamist Freedom and Justice Party. The clown Islamist Party is corrupting Turkey´s secularism. On the other side, Turkey is playing as NATO´s best chattel.

    To use a historic comparison. When Hitler started eating the lambs of Europe like the Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia and Austria, the world tolerated it. The limit was reached in 1939. It is comparable with the NATO, led by the USA, eating the lambs since 1991. First Serbia was destroyed, then came Kosovo, then came Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.

    I think and hope that Syria would be the turning point. With Libya a most negative practice of using Islamist mad dogs and proxies started. Al Qaeda and other most rabid Islamist groups were used in Libya and now again in Syria. The NATO is unleashing the same savages that it claims to fight in Afghanistan on secular states like Libya and Syria.

    If Russia had not asserted itself, the wolves would have attacked Syria by now. These wolves only fear Weapons of Mass Destruction, WMD´s, and any state not having WMD´s will be shred into bits and devoured by the wolves. Lets hope that Putin proves to be like a new Moses who challenges the wolves who have the souls of Pagans.

    CL. Considering the volatility of the situation in Syria and that a conflict of that nature easily can develop a dynamic on its own, even a dynamic that was neither planned nor wanted by any of the stakeholders, and considering that the aggravation of the crisis into a regional war with the involvement of Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, the Gulf Arab States, Turkey and NATO countries as well as Russia could have catastrophic consequences,- furthermore considering that the situation as it is seems so that non of the stakeholders can win, but all can loose, which diplomatic, political and economic initiatives would you consider necessary and feasible to solve the crisis ?

    AHA. "We are moving toward a great global war and supreme strategic anarchy by remote pilot".

    This happened, because the pilots who were supposed to man policy and regulate the tide of history did not have the talent to exercise their due role in history ! These pilots in reality wore the uniforms of pilots but had the caliber of air stewards and air pursers! This includes Obama, Yusuf Raza Gillani, Man Mohan Singh and the Saudi king. This brought us into a Sarajevo situation, where events started moving decision makers rather than decision makers moving events.

    Till 2008 the USA was led by an impetuous pilot with a low IQ but a definite strategic decisiveness. A man with limited intellect, but one who could take strategic decisions. After 2008 the USA got a social climber who looked outwardly smart and bright but lacked statesmanship and had near zero strategic vision. Thus Afghanistan, after 2008, moved from relative calm into anarchy, as far as the South was concerned.

    Pakistan was the worst case. It was led by an opportunist who attempted to please all parties, including the Americans, Islamists, Pakistani liberals and the Indians. As as result Pakistan developed such a fatal "confusion of principle" that the whole Pakistani society was fractured down into its deepest foundations. This military opportunist in turn, made peace with the corrupt politicians to prolong his rule. Subsequently, the whole political fabric of Pakistan was shattered.

    The Pakistani military was attacked by Islamists, for allegedly being in league with the Christian powers. The Pakistani military lost its entire credibility when it emerged as the main party in the controversial NRO deal, which legitimized past corruption of Pakistan´s politicians, which the army had prosecuted with zeal from 1999 to 2002. Pakistan became engulfed in two major insurgencies. One with the Islamists and the other in Baluchistan. Both have the potential to destabilize and even to destroy Pakistan.

    The USA has no strategy in Afghanistan and is in a catch 22, unless it decides on a strategy of decisive action. While the US policy makers saw Pakistan as a center of gravity of Islamists, including the Afghan Taliban, the US failed to frame a decisive strategy for dealing with Pakistan. Pakistan´s nuclear assets, Chinese support, and a growing Russian support are principal obstacles that the USA faces in formulating a strategy of decisive action against Pakistan. Both Iran and Pakistan remain two strategic thorn lands that the USA faces and which are being constantly watered by China and Russia.

    The Osama Raid and the Salala incident forced Pakistan´s military and political elite to close the NATO supply line to Afghanistan. The memogate scandal also increased the civil military divide in Pakistan but this appears to be more of a US ploy to divide and weaken Pakistan.

    The key strategic trends in this scenario are the following:

    Any US withdrawal, in totality or partially, would strengthen the Islamists in Afghanistan who will see full or partial defeat of the US as a great victory for Islam. This would destabilize Pakistan and increase the chances of a war between India and Pakistan.

    The US missile shield has permanently alienated Russia, and Russia will re-assert itself and take the lead in aiding all anti US forces. US failure to correctly deal with Iran and Pakistan will further destabilize the situation. Pakistan´s nuclear assets will deter the US from any grand adventure against Pakistan.

    The US´s chances of an internal pro US coup in Pakistan by the PPP have become week after the Osama bin Laden incident and the Salala incident. The chances of a military coup in Pakistan will get stronger as the situation moves and if the Pakistani´s ISI´s (Inters Services Intelligence-service) plan to bring a national government led by Imran Khan fails.

    India still perceives Pakistan as a grave strategic threat and remains apprehensive of Pakistan's strategic nukes. This will ensure that the Indians will continue with aiding the low intensity war in Pakistan. The US will try to follow a policy that reduces Pakistan to a smaller size and confines Pakistan´s nukes to Punjab.

    In the case of Baluchistan, it will not be difficult for the USA to Balkanize Pakistan if the USA decides to support Baloch secessionists. Karachi remains a strategic US asset with the MQM and other elements who can paralyze Karachi at few hours notice.

    US policy will be difficult to formulate and execute. No nuclear state was ever denuclearized by war. The policy that the US will follow will be to destabilize Pakistan and to present it as a danger to world peace, like the Democratic Peoples´ Republic North Korea. In the process, even a small incident can initiate a grand strategic earthquake. God help the USA, Pakistan, India and the world.

    CL. The US-led war on Afghanistan has now lasted for more than ten years. After NATO´s 25th Summit in Chicago in 2012 it transpired that NATO will maintain a presence in Afghanistan until at least 2014, and most likely until 2025 and beyond. NATO and western mainstream media continue marketing the argument that the NATO presence is necessary for fighting "the Taliban" and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Furthermore, the US Aggressions in Pakistan, predominantly in the form of drone attacks increase, and are also being marketed under the slogan of combating "the Taliban". Could you please help us deconstruct the tale of "the Taliban" and elicit who is meant with "the Taliban", which nuances should we should be aware of. It seems that the USA in many regards is fighting an enemy which it creates.

    AHA. To answer your questions, let me refer to my 2008 assessment. "Note that Obama is just a clever social climber, a mixed breed who was kicked upwards, a President with no control over anything."

    The objectives are not Al Qaeda, the Taliban or bin Laden. The objectives are to attack Iran, Russia´s soft Central Asian State and oil-rich belly, to destabilize China´s Sinkiang province with an Islamist insurrection, to denuclearize Pakistan and to consolidate the US – India base against China after Pakistan has been Balkanized.

    The objectives on the ground are neither Al Qaeda, the Taliban or Bin Laden. The droning of random targets continues to convince public opinion and gives the rich friends in the defense industry more ammunition and equipment contracts. US troops consolidate the oil transmission route on the herat Kandahar road.

    GRAND+LIES+1+jpgNo real offensive is launched against the Taliban. They are the good reason for why the USA is in Afghanistan, so why would the US/NATO want to eliminate "them". US policy is pressuring Pakistan by the means of drone attacks, forcing Pakistan to take military action in Fata is designed to destabilize Pakistan so that final grounds for the denuclearization of Pakistan are being set in place. The US tools in this exercise are US contractors in Pakistan and Afghanistan, US and British security companies in Pakistan, US or EX-US Bankers and Corporate Executives in Pakistan who are subverting civil and military brass. Through the 2008 elections the US has already achieved a political regime change in Pakistan, while the Pakistani military, who are safeguarding Pakistan´s nuclear assets are the next target.

    The objective to attack Iran and Russia´s soft Central Asian State oil-rich belly has so far been a miserable failure, with US proxies being checked bu Central Asia, Iran and China. However, secret training of proxies is going on in US bases in Afghanistan. With regard to the objective to destabilize the Chinese Sinkiang province with an Islamist insurrection, it is a logical objective, but there is the independent will of the enemy, backed with WMDs. China is "not" Iraq.

    The denuclearization of Pakistan is proceeding at a good pace, although no major success has been achieved. The Pakistani civilian government is fully on the US payroll while it may take 2 – 5 years for the Pakistani military to become a full-time US chattel. With regard to the objective of consolidating the US – India base after Pakistan is Balkanized, the program for Balkanization includes a Baloch State, a Pashtunistan, a City State of Karachi, Sindhu Desh. A denuclearized Pakistan will only be consisting of Punjab and northern areas controlled by China. This is to take five to ten years. With Pakistan Balkanized the US and India will have a complete, contiguous base against China and Russia.

    The Analysis.

    The present US strategic position is the silent registration of targets in Pakistan, Iran, Chinese Sinkiang and Russian dominated Central Asia. By trying to base logistics on Russian Ex Soviet Central Asian states, the USA is trying to bring economic benefits to Central Asia, so that the Russian hold can be weakened. However, Russia is convinced, that the US must fail in Afghanistan and it has made considerable efforts to aid anti US forces in Afghanistan through Iran and through Central Asian republics. US forces will not be able to control Afghanistan unless Pakistan is Balkanized and this would at least take 3 to 5 years.

    The first state to secede with US support would be Baluchistan. This is so, because the Base of anti US forces in Afghanistan is Pakistani Baluchistan, and Russia, Iran, and China have a combined interest in making the USA bleed in Afghanistan through Pakistani proxies known as Taliban. When Pakistan aids the Taliban in Afghanistan it is actually defending Pakistan. The maneuver to fix the situation for the USA would be an US manipulated India Pakistan war that would be leaving Pakistan severely damaged and India less damaged, followed by a denuclearization of Pakistan.

    China, Russia and Iran are the US opponents. They have the potential to throw a spanner in US plans. There is the unforeseen Factor X.

    There appears to be a strong evolving consensus in the USA as well as its NATO allies that Pakistan is the center of gravity of the Islamists in the ongoing, so-called war on terror. The idea gained currency in various high US policy making circles as well as think tanks around 1987 – 89 and then assumed a solid shape in the decade 1990 – 2000. After it was adopted as policy and concrete albeit top-secret planning was started to deal with Pakistan, which at the ulterior level was seen as part of the problem rather than a solution.

    Let me also refer a 2006 assessment that is still validA Brief Strategic Assessment of US Presence in Afghanistan Made in September 2005. By Agha Amin.

    The distinction between Islamist and non Islamist is being fast transformed into US versus Anti US Forces. Afghanistan may prove to be an area of strategic convergence for Islamists, China, Russia and even Pakistan and Iran which are logically phase two US targets. It is naive to think that the USA came to Afghanistan to deal with Talibs.

    The choices of the USA: The USA has several choices. It can deal with Afghanistan alone and consolidate. This would not be cost-effective for the USA. The investment it has made is too big. It could widen the front to Phase Two, Pakistan and Iran. Phase Three may be Chinese Sinkiang and Phase Four Central Asian Republics. The US can also chose to withdraw from Afghanistan while retaining a central position to strike at any target in the area. Possibly and independent Baloch State, carved out of Iran and Pakistan alone at first and Pakistani Baluchistan later.

    China´s and Russia´s Choices: China and Russia can allow the USA an uncontested stay and risk a Muslim rising in Sinkiang within the next ten years and US domination of Central Asian Republics. They can aid anti US forces, using non state actors in Pakistan and state actors in other areas, and they can strengthen alliances with Iranian and Pakistani states.

    Pakistan and Iran's choices: Pakistan and Iran can either accept US domination and scrap WMD programs, strengthen alliances with China and Russia, or aid anti US forces in Afghanistan with Chinese and Russian blessings.

    The Major Actors: The anti US forces are divided in two parts , state and non state actors. The main bases of non state actors are in Pakistan,Iran and Middle East. The Pakistani and Iranian states are the forward states having direct borders with Afghanistan and are involved in the Afghan game via state and non state actors.

    Key Strategic trends: A realization in Pakistan, that the Pakistani WMD apparatus is a future target of the USA which will have Afghanistan as its base. A realization in both China and Russia that the strategic salvation of both lies in aiding anti US groups , particularly those in Afghanistan. The development of Pakistan as the best base area of anti US groups operating in Afghanistan more because of non state actors. In order to deal with non state actors, the USA at some stage, will have to deal with both Pakistan and Iran. The USA seems strategically clueless and is playing a waiting game. Time is the key. Anti US forces can wait for ten years but every second, the USA is losing money. The USA has to achieve a tangible strategical objective. Both China and Russia will use the Islamic card, like the USA used it in Afghanistan from 1979 till 1989.

    Militarily, an anti US war in Afghanistan aided by China and Russia can prove to be USA's Spanish ulcer. Anti US forces in Afghanistan Pakistan and Iran are intact and can change the strategic balance. The USAs hold in Afghanistan is confined to key cities only.

    The drug mafia is a major US opponent and can sustain anti US forces in Afghanistan. Islamists have realized that they must have China and Russia as allies. The same realization is taking place in China and Russia. Thus, there arises the convergence of interest.

    The strategic options of the USA are: To create an alternate drug mafia which is non Pashtun and create new states, which are US allies like Baluchistan,Kurdistan. Possibly the USA could also work toward a non Pashtun state in North Afghanistan.

    CL. In one of our discussions you said that there was a significant discrepancy between the areas where the USA is deploying drones and where the so-called "Taliban" attacks US troops. You also stated that many of the drone attacks are carried out in areas where the Pakistani military controls and secures the Af-Pak border while very few, if any drone attacks are carried out in areas where it would actually make sense. Could you please describe this in some detail and elicit the most important strategic as well as political implications ?

    AHA. Drone attacks are being carried out in the two agencies North and South Waziristan and 90 % are carried out in the Datta Khel Sub District. These are aimed at Haqqani Group which is regarded as an ISI asset by the USA.

    PROXY+WAR+IN+AFGHANISTANA major aim with the drone attacks is also to benefit private contractors who are involved in these attacks at all levels from intelligence gathering down to munitions and drone suppliers. Another major idea is to demoralize the Pashtuns, so that any war against the USA would bring such a retribution that they will be unable to answer or match it with equal fire.

    CL. You stated that Iran has a significant interest in South West Afghanistan. WE hear very little about this in western media and I have not been able to find any detailed analysis in Iranian media either. Could you please give us your position on which role Iran is playing in Afghanistan ?

    AHA. Iran is active in West Afghanistan as well as Central Afghanistan. Iran is a most important supporter of the Northern Alliance after Russia and India . Iran views the Taliban as an existential threat. It regards non Pashtuns as well as moderate Pashtuns as its allies.

    CL. There is little doubt among analysts that the USA and some NATO member states are attempting to "balkanize" Pakistan into smaller nations. We observe increased activities of often Soros-funded UN agencies and NGOs, especially in Northern Pakistan, indicating an attempt to play on ethnicity. It is a standard strategy which has been used by the West in Yugoslavia, especially in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the strategy is currently being implemented in Nepal, and it is being implemented in Myanmar, in an attempt to create so-called inter-communal violence in Myanmar´s Rakhine State. Could you give us your perspective about attempts to destruct the nation-state Pakistan ?

    AHA. Let me also here refer to a previous assessment which I made in April 2009. Every movement in history has a direction, a quantum, a modus operandi. According to the father of the philosophy of war Carl Von Clausewitz everything in strategy moves slowly, imperceptibly, subtly, somewhat mysteriously and sometimes invisibly.

    The greatness of a military commander or statesman lies in assessing these strategic movements. The USA inherited a historical situation in the shape of 9/11.At this point in time it was not making history if we agree that 9/11 was the work of Al Qaeda for which so far the USA has failed to furnish any solid evidence.

    After 9/11 when the USA attacked Afghanistan ,US leaders and key military commanders were making history. They had a certain plan in mind. The stated objectives of these plan were the elimination of Al Qaeda. The unstated objective was the denuclearization of Pakistan. This scribe has continuously held this position, held consistently, in articles published in Nation from September 2001,all through 2002,2003,2004,2005 and till 2009.

    The US strategic plan followed the following distinct phases

    *An initial maneuver occupying Afghanistan in 2001.

    *Establishing and consolidating US military bases near the Afghan Pakistan border. Most prominent being the Khost, Jalalabad, Sharan and Kunar US bases. Some military bases like Dasht I Margo in Nimroz and three other bases in Kandahar, Badakhshan and Logar were so secret that their construction was not even advertised. Even in the case of sensitive areas the contracts were awarded to the US Government owned Shaw Inc and the CIA proxy operated Dyncorps Corporation.

    Patriotic Afghans trained in the USSR were removed from Afghan Intelligence because they would not agree to be a party to USA's dirty game in between 2001 and 2007. Similarly many patriotic Afghan officers trained in USSR were removed from the Afghan military establishment.

    * Cultivating various tribes in ethnic groups on the Pakistan Afghan border by awarding them lucrative construction and logistic sub contracts.

    * Forcing the Pakistani military to act against the FATA tribes thus destabilizing Pakistan's North West area close to the strategic heartland of Peshawar-Islamabad-Lahore where Pakistan's political and military nucleus is located.

    * Creating a situation where mysterious insurgencies erupted in various parts of Pakistan including FATA, Swat and Baluchistan.

    * Carrying forward urban terrorism into Punjab through various proxies. Now it appears that the strategic plan is entering its final stage of launching a strategic coup de grace to Pakistan.

    These may be assessed as following

    * A US military buildup in Afghanistan and the launching of an offensive against Taliban, with an aim of pushing them into Pakistan.

    * Simultaneously pressuring the Pakistan Army into launching an operation in Waziristan. Thus Pakistan´s Army gets severely bogged down and hundreds of thousands of refugees enter Pakistan's NWFP and Baluchistan provinces. Infiltrators and fifth columnists being a heavy promiscuous mixture of this movement.

    * Since 2001 the USA has spent a great fortune collecting information on Pakistan's strategic nuclear assets. It appears that in 2009 it has sufficient data to launch a covert operation. The covert nuclear operation could have a civilian and a military part. The civilian part may involve an attack on Pakistan's non-military nuclear reactors like Chashma and KANUPP. The military covert operation could involve an attack on any of Pakistan's strategic nuclear groups anywhere in Pakistan.

    Once this type of attack is done the USA with its NATO lackeys like Britain, France and Germany would go the UN and maneuver an international resolution, demanding the denuclearization of Pakistan. The international opinion may be so strong that Pakistan's government may capitulate.

    * Once Pakistan is denuclearized, the USA would encourage Pakistan's Balkanization into a Baloch US satellite, a city-state of MQM in Karachi, a Pashtunistan badly bombed and in tatters and a Punjab stripped of nuclear potential, kicked and bullied by India. A Northern Area republic which is an US lackey unless China decides to call the US bluff by occupying the Northern Area.

    CL. At closing, I remember that you stated, that international law was irrelevant because nothing had changed since the time of Alexander the Great. I agree that for instance the International Criminal Court has more to do with victor's justice than with international law. We see over the last decade a serious explosion of international law at its very root. The Geneva Conventions are circumvented by creating artificial constructs such as unlawful combatant, enhanced interrogation methods, the use of "contractors", as if they were workers to build public schools and hospitals, being deployed to maintain military tasks. Extraordinary rendition, just to mention a few of the most obvious problems. As a man of military education, which risks do you see in the deterioration of international law ?

    AHA. We are heading towards an international new order where the power of the state will be totally in hands of a corrupt mafia, who will usurp all human rights on pretext of controlling terrorism. This would result in grand strategic anarchy and even the US will Balkanize. The boomerang will come back and as they say the wheel turns !

    Interview with Maj. Agha H. Amin by Christof Lehmann

    OBAMA POLICY CREATES A NEW EXTREMIST HEARTLAND IN SYRIA-ELECT A KENYAN MUSLIM AND FACE THE MUSIC

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    OBAMA POLICY CREATES A NEW EXTREMIST HEARTLAND IN SYRIA-ELECT A KENYAN MUSLIM AND FACE THE MUSIC

    ELECT A COMMUNITY MOBILISER AND ENJOY HOW HE PLAYS HELL WITH US FOREIGN POLICY.

    AGHA H AMIN





    As Foreign Fighters Flood Syria, Fears of a New Extremist Haven

    Hamid Khatib/Reuters

    Free Syrian Army fighters near the Menagh air base in Aleppo Province, which rebels captured this week after months of trying.

    BEIRUT, Lebanon — As foreign fighters pour into Syria at an increasing clip, extremist groups are carving out pockets of territory that are becoming havens for Islamist militants, posing what United States and Western intelligence officials say may be developing into one of the biggest terrorist threats in the world today.

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    Rebel fighters near the Menagh air base last month.

    Known as fierce fighters willing to employ suicide car bombs, the jihadist groups now include more than 6,000 foreigners, counterterrorism officials say, adding that such fighters are streaming into Syria in greater numbers than went into Iraq at the height of the insurgency there against the American occupation.

    Many of the militants are part of the Nusra Front, an extremist group whose fighters have gained a reputation over the past several months as some of the most effective in the opposition.

    But others are assembling under a new, even more extreme umbrella group, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, that is merging some Syrians with fighters from around the world — Chechnya, Pakistan, Egypt and the West, as well as Al Qaeda in Iraq, the Sunni insurgent group that rose to prominence in the fight against the American occupation in the years after the 2003 invasion. The concern is that a new affiliate of Al Qaeda could be emerging from those groups.

    It was the fear of militants coming to dominate the opposition that caused the United States and its Western allies to hold off providing lethal aid to the Syrian opposition, at least until now. But as a result, counterterrorism analysts say, they lost a chance to influence the battle in Syria. Even Congressional supporters of the C.I.A.'s covert program to arm moderate elements of the Syrian opposition fear the delivery of weapons, set to begin this month, will be too little, too late.

    The stakes are high. American intelligence officials said this week that Ayman al-Zawahri, the overall leader of Al Qaeda in Pakistan, has had regular communications with the Nusra Front in Syria, reflecting how favorably the Qaeda leadership views the long-term potential for Syria as a safe haven. Juan Zarate, a former senior counterterrorism official in the George W. Bush administration, said that Syria lay in the center of an arc of instability, stretching from Iran through North Africa, and "in that zone, you may have the regeneration and resurrection of a new brand of Al Qaeda."

    In Syria, the battle lines have hardened in recent months. The Syrian government, backed by Iran and Hezbollah, has seized new momentum and retaken territory in the south and east from the rebels. At the same time, power within the badly fractured opposition, numbering about 1,200 groups, has steadily slipped into the hands of the jihadists based in the northeast, where this week they seized a strategic airport in the area. They also hold sway in the provincial capital of Raqqa.

    The idea that Syria could supplant Pakistan as the primary haven for Al Qaeda someday, should the government fall, is a heavy blow to the Western-backed Syrian opposition and its military arm, the Free Syrian Army. It plays directly into the hands of Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, whose government has sought to portray itself as the only alternative to Islamic extremism and chaos and has made the prospect of full-on American support even more remote than it already was.

    Mr. Assad's argument "began as a fiction during the period of peaceful, unarmed protests but is now a reality" because of Mr. Assad's own efforts to divide the country as well as the success of the extremists, Hussein Ibish, a senior fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine, wrote in a recent essay that appeared in The National.

    In Raqqa recently, a commander of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria sipped coffee after breaking the Ramadan fast, wearing a Pakistani-style outfit. The commander, Abu Omar, was Syrian, a member of a tribe in the area, but he described his movement's goals as reaching far beyond the country's borders.

    He did not speak of attacking the United States. But he threatened Russia, and he spoke of a broad-based battle against Shiite-led Iran and its quest to dominate the region, and said Sunnis from across the world were justified in flocking to Syria to fight because of the government's reliance on Shiite fighters from Lebanon and Iraq.




    The volatility of Gas, Geo-Politics and the Greater Middle East. An Interview with Major Agha H. Amin

    The volatility of Gas, Geo-Politics and the Greater Middle East. An Interview with Major Agha H. Amin

    Posted on February 1, 2013 by 

    The volatility of Gas, Geo-Politics and the Greater Middle East. An Interview with Major Agha H. Amin

    Mijn fotoMajor Agha H. Amin is a retired Pakistani military officer and the author of various books, including "Development of Taliban Factions in Afghanistan", "Taliban War in Afghanistan" and "History of Pakistan Army". He studied at the Forman Christian College and at the Pakistan Military Academy in Kalkul. Agha H. Amin has been working as Assistant Editor of Defense Journal, Executive Editor at the Globe, and as Editor of the Journal of Afghanistan Studies. He is an active member of the Think Tank ORBAT and the Alexandrian Defense Group and he is working as security management consultant. Agha H. Amin has been working as consultant on various oil, gas and energy projects in Central Asia, Afghanistan and Pakistan, including the TAPI pipeline, CASA 100, the Uzbekistan Afghanistan Pakistan line and the Turkmenistan Mazar Sharif line. He is an expert on national and regional security, energy security and geo-political issues. The following is the full text of an interview by Christof Lehmann with Major Agha H. Amin from 30 January 2013.

    CL. Not long ago we were discussing the situation in Syria, and the fact that the root cause for the attempted subversion of Syria is the 10 billion USD PARS gas pipeline project from Iran, via Iraq and Syria to the Easter Mediterranean Coast, the most important factors being the political leverage Iran would acquire if it, together with Russia provided more than 40 % of the gas consumed in the EU over the coming 100 – 120 years, a US and a US and UK attempt to sabotage the further integration of the continental European and Russian national economies and energy sectors. Both high ranking members of the Workers Party Turkey and retired Turkish military officers accuse the AKP government of Prime Minister R. Tayyip Erdogan of being involved in the implementation of the Greater Middle East Project, developed by the RAND Corporation for the US Defense Department in 1996. This plan includes the "balkanization" of Turkey into smaller states. We discussed a possible plan to establish a NATO Corridor from Turkey to India. In our discussion you said: "I would like to add to them that the establishment of the Kurdistan part of the corridor would significantly change the security dynamics of the Russian South Stream gas pipeline which is part of the causes for the war on Syria." Could you please brief us on the most important factors with regard to the security dynamics of the Russian South Stream gas pipeline ?

    AHA. The strategic idea of NATO, is aiming at securing the northern borders of Israel against Hezbollah and the southern borders against Hamas; to eliminate the Russian naval base in the eastern Mediterranean, Syrian city of Tartous. NATO is planning to create a western strategic corridor to maintain energy-security in the case that oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted because of a war with Iran or otherwise.

    Kurdish+Syrian+Strat+ScenarioOne of the first steps toward the implementation of the long-term strategic plan, is the partition of Turkey by creating separate Kurdish areas, thereby providing NATO a direct access to Russia´s soft underbelly in the Caucasus.

    This can ideally be used to dominate the Caucasian oil as well as support the Chechen against Russia in a low intensity conflict. Also, to create a viable independent Kurd state, it would need a windpipe access to the sea. This can be provided via the southern coast of Turkey and the Northern Coast of Syria. Whether a Syrian government soldier or a Syrian Islamist "Nut" dies in the process, "both are equally beneficial to the US/NATO".

    The cardinal strategic idea is to internalize the war within the Islamic world so that Europe and the USA become safer while the enemies of western civilization destroy each other.

    NATO is a club of wolves and Turkey is the odd wolf in NATO. Once the wolves have eaten Syria, they will eat the odd wolf Turkey. Yes, Turkey has been getting huge funds from Saudi Arabia, especially the clown Islamist Freedom and Justice Party. The clown Islamist Party is corrupting Turkey´s secularism. On the other side, Turkey is playing as NATO´s best chattel.

    To use a historic comparison. When Hitler started eating the lambs of Europe like the Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia and Austria, the world tolerated it. The limit was reached in 1939. It is comparable with the NATO, led by the USA, eating the lambs since 1991. First Serbia was destroyed, then came Kosovo, then came Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.

    I think and hope that Syria would be the turning point. With Libya a most negative practice of using Islamist mad dogs and proxies started. Al Qaeda and other most rabid Islamist groups were used in Libya and now again in Syria. The NATO is unleashing the same savages that it claims to fight in Afghanistan on secular states like Libya and Syria.

    If Russia had not asserted itself, the wolves would have attacked Syria by now. These wolves only fear Weapons of Mass Destruction, WMD´s, and any state not having WMD´s will be shred into bits and devoured by the wolves. Lets hope that Putin proves to be like a new Moses who challenges the wolves who have the souls of Pagans.

    CL. Considering the volatility of the situation in Syria and that a conflict of that nature easily can develop a dynamic on its own, even a dynamic that was neither planned nor wanted by any of the stakeholders, and considering that the aggravation of the crisis into a regional war with the involvement of Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, the Gulf Arab States, Turkey and NATO countries as well as Russia could have catastrophic consequences,- furthermore considering that the situation as it is seems so that non of the stakeholders can win, but all can loose, which diplomatic, political and economic initiatives would you consider necessary and feasible to solve the crisis ?

    AHA. "We are moving toward a great global war and supreme strategic anarchy by remote pilot".

    This happened, because the pilots who were supposed to man policy and regulate the tide of history did not have the talent to exercise their due role in history ! These pilots in reality wore the uniforms of pilots but had the caliber of air stewards and air pursers! This includes Obama, Yusuf Raza Gillani, Man Mohan Singh and the Saudi king. This brought us into a Sarajevo situation, where events started moving decision makers rather than decision makers moving events.

    Till 2008 the USA was led by an impetuous pilot with a low IQ but a definite strategic decisiveness. A man with limited intellect, but one who could take strategic decisions. After 2008 the USA got a social climber who looked outwardly smart and bright but lacked statesmanship and had near zero strategic vision. Thus Afghanistan, after 2008, moved from relative calm into anarchy, as far as the South was concerned.

    Pakistan was the worst case. It was led by an opportunist who attempted to please all parties, including the Americans, Islamists, Pakistani liberals and the Indians. As as result Pakistan developed such a fatal "confusion of principle" that the whole Pakistani society was fractured down into its deepest foundations. This military opportunist in turn, made peace with the corrupt politicians to prolong his rule. Subsequently, the whole political fabric of Pakistan was shattered.

    The Pakistani military was attacked by Islamists, for allegedly being in league with the Christian powers. The Pakistani military lost its entire credibility when it emerged as the main party in the controversial NRO deal, which legitimized past corruption of Pakistan´s politicians, which the army had prosecuted with zeal from 1999 to 2002. Pakistan became engulfed in two major insurgencies. One with the Islamists and the other in Baluchistan. Both have the potential to destabilize and even to destroy Pakistan.

    The USA has no strategy in Afghanistan and is in a catch 22, unless it decides on a strategy of decisive action. While the US policy makers saw Pakistan as a center of gravity of Islamists, including the Afghan Taliban, the US failed to frame a decisive strategy for dealing with Pakistan. Pakistan´s nuclear assets, Chinese support, and a growing Russian support are principal obstacles that the USA faces in formulating a strategy of decisive action against Pakistan. Both Iran and Pakistan remain two strategic thorn lands that the USA faces and which are being constantly watered by China and Russia.

    The Osama Raid and the Salala incident forced Pakistan´s military and political elite to close the NATO supply line to Afghanistan. The memogate scandal also increased the civil military divide in Pakistan but this appears to be more of a US ploy to divide and weaken Pakistan.

    The key strategic trends in this scenario are the following:

    Any US withdrawal, in totality or partially, would strengthen the Islamists in Afghanistan who will see full or partial defeat of the US as a great victory for Islam. This would destabilize Pakistan and increase the chances of a war between India and Pakistan.

    The US missile shield has permanently alienated Russia, and Russia will re-assert itself and take the lead in aiding all anti US forces. US failure to correctly deal with Iran and Pakistan will further destabilize the situation. Pakistan´s nuclear assets will deter the US from any grand adventure against Pakistan.

    The US´s chances of an internal pro US coup in Pakistan by the PPP have become week after the Osama bin Laden incident and the Salala incident. The chances of a military coup in Pakistan will get stronger as the situation moves and if the Pakistani´s ISI´s (Inters Services Intelligence-service) plan to bring a national government led by Imran Khan fails.

    India still perceives Pakistan as a grave strategic threat and remains apprehensive of Pakistan's strategic nukes. This will ensure that the Indians will continue with aiding the low intensity war in Pakistan. The US will try to follow a policy that reduces Pakistan to a smaller size and confines Pakistan´s nukes to Punjab.

    In the case of Baluchistan, it will not be difficult for the USA to Balkanize Pakistan if the USA decides to support Baloch secessionists. Karachi remains a strategic US asset with the MQM and other elements who can paralyze Karachi at few hours notice.

    US policy will be difficult to formulate and execute. No nuclear state was ever denuclearized by war. The policy that the US will follow will be to destabilize Pakistan and to present it as a danger to world peace, like the Democratic Peoples´ Republic North Korea. In the process, even a small incident can initiate a grand strategic earthquake. God help the USA, Pakistan, India and the world.

    CL. The US-led war on Afghanistan has now lasted for more than ten years. After NATO´s 25th Summit in Chicago in 2012 it transpired that NATO will maintain a presence in Afghanistan until at least 2014, and most likely until 2025 and beyond. NATO and western mainstream media continue marketing the argument that the NATO presence is necessary for fighting "the Taliban" and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. Furthermore, the US Aggressions in Pakistan, predominantly in the form of drone attacks increase, and are also being marketed under the slogan of combating "the Taliban". Could you please help us deconstruct the tale of "the Taliban" and elicit who is meant with "the Taliban", which nuances should we should be aware of. It seems that the USA in many regards is fighting an enemy which it creates.

    AHA. To answer your questions, let me refer to my 2008 assessment. "Note that Obama is just a clever social climber, a mixed breed who was kicked upwards, a President with no control over anything."

    The objectives are not Al Qaeda, the Taliban or bin Laden. The objectives are to attack Iran, Russia´s soft Central Asian State and oil-rich belly, to destabilize China´s Sinkiang province with an Islamist insurrection, to denuclearize Pakistan and to consolidate the US – India base against China after Pakistan has been Balkanized.

    The objectives on the ground are neither Al Qaeda, the Taliban or Bin Laden. The droning of random targets continues to convince public opinion and gives the rich friends in the defense industry more ammunition and equipment contracts. US troops consolidate the oil transmission route on the herat Kandahar road.

    GRAND+LIES+1+jpgNo real offensive is launched against the Taliban. They are the good reason for why the USA is in Afghanistan, so why would the US/NATO want to eliminate "them". US policy is pressuring Pakistan by the means of drone attacks, forcing Pakistan to take military action in Fata is designed to destabilize Pakistan so that final grounds for the denuclearization of Pakistan are being set in place. The US tools in this exercise are US contractors in Pakistan and Afghanistan, US and British security companies in Pakistan, US or EX-US Bankers and Corporate Executives in Pakistan who are subverting civil and military brass. Through the 2008 elections the US has already achieved a political regime change in Pakistan, while the Pakistani military, who are safeguarding Pakistan´s nuclear assets are the next target.

    The objective to attack Iran and Russia´s soft Central Asian State oil-rich belly has so far been a miserable failure, with US proxies being checked bu Central Asia, Iran and China. However, secret training of proxies is going on in US bases in Afghanistan. With regard to the objective to destabilize the Chinese Sinkiang province with an Islamist insurrection, it is a logical objective, but there is the independent will of the enemy, backed with WMDs. China is "not" Iraq.

    The denuclearization of Pakistan is proceeding at a good pace, although no major success has been achieved. The Pakistani civilian government is fully on the US payroll while it may take 2 – 5 years for the Pakistani military to become a full-time US chattel. With regard to the objective of consolidating the US – India base after Pakistan is Balkanized, the program for Balkanization includes a Baloch State, a Pashtunistan, a City State of Karachi, Sindhu Desh. A denuclearized Pakistan will only be consisting of Punjab and northern areas controlled by China. This is to take five to ten years. With Pakistan Balkanized the US and India will have a complete, contiguous base against China and Russia.

    The Analysis.

    The present US strategic position is the silent registration of targets in Pakistan, Iran, Chinese Sinkiang and Russian dominated Central Asia. By trying to base logistics on Russian Ex Soviet Central Asian states, the USA is trying to bring economic benefits to Central Asia, so that the Russian hold can be weakened. However, Russia is convinced, that the US must fail in Afghanistan and it has made considerable efforts to aid anti US forces in Afghanistan through Iran and through Central Asian republics. US forces will not be able to control Afghanistan unless Pakistan is Balkanized and this would at least take 3 to 5 years.

    The first state to secede with US support would be Baluchistan. This is so, because the Base of anti US forces in Afghanistan is Pakistani Baluchistan, and Russia, Iran, and China have a combined interest in making the USA bleed in Afghanistan through Pakistani proxies known as Taliban. When Pakistan aids the Taliban in Afghanistan it is actually defending Pakistan. The maneuver to fix the situation for the USA would be an US manipulated India Pakistan war that would be leaving Pakistan severely damaged and India less damaged, followed by a denuclearization of Pakistan.

    China, Russia and Iran are the US opponents. They have the potential to throw a spanner in US plans. There is the unforeseen Factor X.

    There appears to be a strong evolving consensus in the USA as well as its NATO allies that Pakistan is the center of gravity of the Islamists in the ongoing, so-called war on terror. The idea gained currency in various high US policy making circles as well as think tanks around 1987 – 89 and then assumed a solid shape in the decade 1990 – 2000. After it was adopted as policy and concrete albeit top-secret planning was started to deal with Pakistan, which at the ulterior level was seen as part of the problem rather than a solution.

    Let me also refer a 2006 assessment that is still validA Brief Strategic Assessment of US Presence in Afghanistan Made in September 2005. By Agha Amin.

    The distinction between Islamist and non Islamist is being fast transformed into US versus Anti US Forces. Afghanistan may prove to be an area of strategic convergence for Islamists, China, Russia and even Pakistan and Iran which are logically phase two US targets. It is naive to think that the USA came to Afghanistan to deal with Talibs.

    The choices of the USA: The USA has several choices. It can deal with Afghanistan alone and consolidate. This would not be cost-effective for the USA. The investment it has made is too big. It could widen the front to Phase Two, Pakistan and Iran. Phase Three may be Chinese Sinkiang and Phase Four Central Asian Republics. The US can also chose to withdraw from Afghanistan while retaining a central position to strike at any target in the area. Possibly and independent Baloch State, carved out of Iran and Pakistan alone at first and Pakistani Baluchistan later.

    China´s and Russia´s Choices: China and Russia can allow the USA an uncontested stay and risk a Muslim rising in Sinkiang within the next ten years and US domination of Central Asian Republics. They can aid anti US forces, using non state actors in Pakistan and state actors in other areas, and they can strengthen alliances with Iranian and Pakistani states.

    Pakistan and Iran's choices: Pakistan and Iran can either accept US domination and scrap WMD programs, strengthen alliances with China and Russia, or aid anti US forces in Afghanistan with Chinese and Russian blessings.

    The Major Actors: The anti US forces are divided in two parts , state and non state actors. The main bases of non state actors are in Pakistan,Iran and Middle East. The Pakistani and Iranian states are the forward states having direct borders with Afghanistan and are involved in the Afghan game via state and non state actors.

    Key Strategic trends: A realization in Pakistan, that the Pakistani WMD apparatus is a future target of the USA which will have Afghanistan as its base. A realization in both China and Russia that the strategic salvation of both lies in aiding anti US groups , particularly those in Afghanistan. The development of Pakistan as the best base area of anti US groups operating in Afghanistan more because of non state actors. In order to deal with non state actors, the USA at some stage, will have to deal with both Pakistan and Iran. The USA seems strategically clueless and is playing a waiting game. Time is the key. Anti US forces can wait for ten years but every second, the USA is losing money. The USA has to achieve a tangible strategical objective. Both China and Russia will use the Islamic card, like the USA used it in Afghanistan from 1979 till 1989.

    Militarily, an anti US war in Afghanistan aided by China and Russia can prove to be USA's Spanish ulcer. Anti US forces in Afghanistan Pakistan and Iran are intact and can change the strategic balance. The USAs hold in Afghanistan is confined to key cities only.

    The drug mafia is a major US opponent and can sustain anti US forces in Afghanistan. Islamists have realized that they must have China and Russia as allies. The same realization is taking place in China and Russia. Thus, there arises the convergence of interest.

    The strategic options of the USA are: To create an alternate drug mafia which is non Pashtun and create new states, which are US allies like Baluchistan,Kurdistan. Possibly the USA could also work toward a non Pashtun state in North Afghanistan.

    CL. In one of our discussions you said that there was a significant discrepancy between the areas where the USA is deploying drones and where the so-called "Taliban" attacks US troops. You also stated that many of the drone attacks are carried out in areas where the Pakistani military controls and secures the Af-Pak border while very few, if any drone attacks are carried out in areas where it would actually make sense. Could you please describe this in some detail and elicit the most important strategic as well as political implications ?

    AHA. Drone attacks are being carried out in the two agencies North and South Waziristan and 90 % are carried out in the Datta Khel Sub District. These are aimed at Haqqani Group which is regarded as an ISI asset by the USA.

    PROXY+WAR+IN+AFGHANISTANA major aim with the drone attacks is also to benefit private contractors who are involved in these attacks at all levels from intelligence gathering down to munitions and drone suppliers. Another major idea is to demoralize the Pashtuns, so that any war against the USA would bring such a retribution that they will be unable to answer or match it with equal fire.

    CL. You stated that Iran has a significant interest in South West Afghanistan. WE hear very little about this in western media and I have not been able to find any detailed analysis in Iranian media either. Could you please give us your position on which role Iran is playing in Afghanistan ?

    AHA. Iran is active in West Afghanistan as well as Central Afghanistan. Iran is a most important supporter of the Northern Alliance after Russia and India . Iran views the Taliban as an existential threat. It regards non Pashtuns as well as moderate Pashtuns as its allies.

    CL. There is little doubt among analysts that the USA and some NATO member states are attempting to "balkanize" Pakistan into smaller nations. We observe increased activities of often Soros-funded UN agencies and NGOs, especially in Northern Pakistan, indicating an attempt to play on ethnicity. It is a standard strategy which has been used by the West in Yugoslavia, especially in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the strategy is currently being implemented in Nepal, and it is being implemented in Myanmar, in an attempt to create so-called inter-communal violence in Myanmar´s Rakhine State. Could you give us your perspective about attempts to destruct the nation-state Pakistan ?

    AHA. Let me also here refer to a previous assessment which I made in April 2009. Every movement in history has a direction, a quantum, a modus operandi. According to the father of the philosophy of war Carl Von Clausewitz everything in strategy moves slowly, imperceptibly, subtly, somewhat mysteriously and sometimes invisibly.

    The greatness of a military commander or statesman lies in assessing these strategic movements. The USA inherited a historical situation in the shape of 9/11.At this point in time it was not making history if we agree that 9/11 was the work of Al Qaeda for which so far the USA has failed to furnish any solid evidence.

    After 9/11 when the USA attacked Afghanistan ,US leaders and key military commanders were making history. They had a certain plan in mind. The stated objectives of these plan were the elimination of Al Qaeda. The unstated objective was the denuclearization of Pakistan. This scribe has continuously held this position, held consistently, in articles published in Nation from September 2001,all through 2002,2003,2004,2005 and till 2009.

    The US strategic plan followed the following distinct phases

    *An initial maneuver occupying Afghanistan in 2001.

    *Establishing and consolidating US military bases near the Afghan Pakistan border. Most prominent being the Khost, Jalalabad, Sharan and Kunar US bases. Some military bases like Dasht I Margo in Nimroz and three other bases in Kandahar, Badakhshan and Logar were so secret that their construction was not even advertised. Even in the case of sensitive areas the contracts were awarded to the US Government owned Shaw Inc and the CIA proxy operated Dyncorps Corporation.

    Patriotic Afghans trained in the USSR were removed from Afghan Intelligence because they would not agree to be a party to USA's dirty game in between 2001 and 2007. Similarly many patriotic Afghan officers trained in USSR were removed from the Afghan military establishment.

    * Cultivating various tribes in ethnic groups on the Pakistan Afghan border by awarding them lucrative construction and logistic sub contracts.

    * Forcing the Pakistani military to act against the FATA tribes thus destabilizing Pakistan's North West area close to the strategic heartland of Peshawar-Islamabad-Lahore where Pakistan's political and military nucleus is located.

    * Creating a situation where mysterious insurgencies erupted in various parts of Pakistan including FATA, Swat and Baluchistan.

    * Carrying forward urban terrorism into Punjab through various proxies. Now it appears that the strategic plan is entering its final stage of launching a strategic coup de grace to Pakistan.

    These may be assessed as following

    * A US military buildup in Afghanistan and the launching of an offensive against Taliban, with an aim of pushing them into Pakistan.

    * Simultaneously pressuring the Pakistan Army into launching an operation in Waziristan. Thus Pakistan´s Army gets severely bogged down and hundreds of thousands of refugees enter Pakistan's NWFP and Baluchistan provinces. Infiltrators and fifth columnists being a heavy promiscuous mixture of this movement.

    * Since 2001 the USA has spent a great fortune collecting information on Pakistan's strategic nuclear assets. It appears that in 2009 it has sufficient data to launch a covert operation. The covert nuclear operation could have a civilian and a military part. The civilian part may involve an attack on Pakistan's non-military nuclear reactors like Chashma and KANUPP. The military covert operation could involve an attack on any of Pakistan's strategic nuclear groups anywhere in Pakistan.

    Once this type of attack is done the USA with its NATO lackeys like Britain, France and Germany would go the UN and maneuver an international resolution, demanding the denuclearization of Pakistan. The international opinion may be so strong that Pakistan's government may capitulate.

    * Once Pakistan is denuclearized, the USA would encourage Pakistan's Balkanization into a Baloch US satellite, a city-state of MQM in Karachi, a Pashtunistan badly bombed and in tatters and a Punjab stripped of nuclear potential, kicked and bullied by India. A Northern Area republic which is an US lackey unless China decides to call the US bluff by occupying the Northern Area.

    CL. At closing, I remember that you stated, that international law was irrelevant because nothing had changed since the time of Alexander the Great. I agree that for instance the International Criminal Court has more to do with victor's justice than with international law. We see over the last decade a serious explosion of international law at its very root. The Geneva Conventions are circumvented by creating artificial constructs such as unlawful combatant, enhanced interrogation methods, the use of "contractors", as if they were workers to build public schools and hospitals, being deployed to maintain military tasks. Extraordinary rendition, just to mention a few of the most obvious problems. As a man of military education, which risks do you see in the deterioration of international law ?

    AHA. We are heading towards an international new order where the power of the state will be totally in hands of a corrupt mafia, who will usurp all human rights on pretext of controlling terrorism. This would result in grand strategic anarchy and even the US will Balkanize. The boomerang will come back and as they say the wheel turns !

    Interview with Maj. Agha H. Amin by Christof Lehmann

    Sitting Ducks-Major Kamran Shafi , 4 Baluch, Khan Bahadur Latif Qureshi of Baghbanpura,LTG K.M Sheikh,Sardar Asif Ahmed Ali , Major Izhar and late Omar Shafi

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    Sitting Ducks-Major Kamran Shafi , 4 Baluch, Khan Bahadur Latif Qureshi of Baghbanpura,LTG K.M Sheikh,Sardar Asif Ahmed Ali , Major Izhar and late Omar Shafi

    Agha H Amin



    The family association that I have with Major Kamran Shafi,4 Baluch , Retired goes back to more than 100 years.

    My grandfathers grandfather a Risaldar in Light Cavalry came to know the Wah family when his regiment was stationed in Pindi after Second Sikh War.

    The association included and was central with the Rajas of Mator notably Raja Khudadad Ali Khans father and grandfather.

    Kamran Shafis father Mian Iqbal Shafi son of Sir Mohammad Shafi was later married to Gaiti Apa a daughter of my grandmothers very close friend Mrs Lateef Qureshi of Baghbanpura.

    The Arains and Mians of Lahore and surrounding country were most eminent in terms of knowledge , education and land holdings.

    Another eminent Arain gentleman who I met in 1988 was Sardar Saqib from Sahiwal who was a DMG officer attached with my fourth regiment 15 Lancers back in Multan. Later Sardar Sqib was AC Kabirwala when I managed part of 1988 Elections at Kukarhatta , area , Fakhar Imam versus Iqbal Hiraj.

    Mrs Latif Qureshis other son in laws included Major Izhar ,EME, Sardar Asif Ahmad Ali,Lieutenant General K.M Sheikh who Aunty Fehmida got rid off , to allow K.M Sheikh to marry Shehla Leghari and then break her arm , I think in Japan. 

    Kamran Shafis step brother Omar Shafi was my close friend in Lahore from the days that he lived on the main boulevard behind Kabana which they had sold.

    Omars sister I believe was close to Benazir in her bad days of 1978-86.

    Omars aunt Ms Sarwat was in the Civil Services Academy.

    Omar Shafi frequently wrote in Friday Times and was a very well read and enlightened man.

    Kamran Shafi is also close relative of my fathers friend Brigadier Tony Mahmud.

    Kamran Shafi is a national asset and what he states has immense weight.










    Sitting ducks

    Published: August 8, 2013

    The writer is a columnist, a former major of the Pakistan Army and served as press secretary to Benazir Bhutto.kamran.shafi@tribune.com.pk

    For, we too are floating about merrily, unaware that we are plumb in the sights of a dangerous, most fearful, and cruel enemy who would not think twice about cutting men, women and children's heads off with a blunt knife (to cause the most pain) in his quest for complete control of the Citadel of Islam. And thence onwards to the Caliphate through Global Jihad.

    And here we are, bringing out Eid fashion lines; putting up billboards with pretty young models showing off the latest in shoes, and handsome men sporting the latest waistcoats with gilded buttons; and advertising flights to some delightful Eden or other on one of the seven airlines that condescend to fly into one of our airports.

    Despite the fact that we are regaled daily with the latest figures of our brave young soldiers and policemen and levies and khasadars, and plain innocent civilians being put to the knife by the savages; shot dead; blown up and kidnapped for ransom. Of the latest jailbreaks with not one casualty suffered by the terrorists; of the newest attempt at attacking the airport of the capital itself by up to 20 of the murderers and that too on the very night that the US secretary of state is in town.

    Not even the wanton killing of 13 poor Punjabi labourers, brutally killed in Balochistan by terrorists while on their way home for Eid; not even the bombing of a football game in Lyari in which 11, mostly teenagers and even younger, are blown up, moves a hair on our heads. We go for sehri and iftar at Lahore's fancy restaurants, and tooling about in our fancy SUVs and BMWs.

    Let's face it friends: the Taliban and their cohorts have us over a barrel, helped along by those who say all will be well after the Americans leave Afghanistan. I can just hear the Taliban laughing up their sleeves as they advance their project of taking over the whole blessed country. All IS lost already: what is left is for us to beseech the terrorists to go easy on us. Unless, that is, we wake up and do something about it, and stand behind our army solidly to give it the support it needs to root out this evil.

    Which reminds me: while I thought there was just the Corps of Military Police Centre (CMP) and School stationed in DI Khan Cantonment, we are now informed by fellow tweeter and good man Major Agha Amin, formerly of the 11th(PAVO) Cavalry, that there is a whole Artillery Division and two Brigades stationed just 10 minutes' drive from DIK: near enough to hear the massive explosions caused by the rampaging Taliban.

    And what indeed of the CMP Centre stationed in DIK city itself? Was no alarm raised; no probe sent to see what all the racket was about? Could this not have developed into an attack on the CMP itself? Will someone in authority, such as the ISPR, clarify this please? WE have to act soon, or else we are really, really done for.

    Lethargically and very, very slowly, the PTI government has started to blame (let us not be afraid to name it) the army for not coming out to help when asked, not only by the local officials concerned, but by the Chief Minister of K-P himself: Dunya August 5, 2013.

    The paper says that whilst the army was in the loop and took part in making the arrangements to face the onslaught as foretold in the intelligence reports, it was not there when the assault did happen. The K-P CM has gone to the extent of saying that he himself called the Corps Commander, etcetera.

    These are most serious charges and while the 'security establishment' has said that it will share the inquiry report with the provincial government, you and I, reader, taxpaying citizens whose money pays for both the provincial government and the military, don't know what the blazes is going on.

    However, the K-P government, specially the Chief Minister, must answer some most critical questions: 1) What time did he first find out about the assault on that critically important jail which held so many violent criminals, one of them with a half-million dollars bounty on his head? 2) Who informed him in the chain of command: the Chief Secretary, the Commissioner, the IG Prisons,or the IG police? 3) What time did he call the Corps Commander for help and what was his exact response?

    This is no laughing matter: this is that critical and perilous and dire time that comes upon nations facing extreme threats to their very existence; this is not to be fobbed off by either the government of K-P under whose watch this extremely dreadful event happened, or by the army which has been directly accused by an elected chief minister of the most strategically important province of the country of not doing its bounden duty: which is coming to the aid of the Civil Power when specifically requisitioned, not only by local civilian officials authorised according to law, but by the chief executive of the province himself.

    The military too needs to look inwards and see where it failed. As if the earlier raids and attacks and killings and destruction of our assets (yes, such as AWACS; PC-3 Orions; and Naval helicopters) was not enough.

    As the great poet said, this is that "tide in the affairs of men. Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune; Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries". For us it simply means that if we do not stop confusing the people about who their real enemy is; if we do not start telling the truth about the terrorists' 'takeover' project which started in 1994, a full seven years before the Americans ever entered the 'War on Terror'; if we do not make the people fighting mad, we are dead in the water: like those sitting ducks we spoke about earlier.

    Published in The Express Tribune, August 9th, 2013.

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    Baloch National Struggle in Pakistan,Past Present and Future-Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur

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    SHORT NOTE ON MR MIR MOHAMMAD ALI TALPUR

    AGHA H AMIN

    MIR MOHAMMAD ALI TALPUR DESCENDS FROM TALPUR BALOCH RULERS OF SINDH WHO RULED SINDH FROM 1780S TO 1843 WHEN ENGLISH EAST INDIA COMPANY CAPTURED SINDH.

    A BORN ARISTOCRAT WHOSE FATHER WAS A MINISTER , MR TALPUR JOINED THE BALOCH GUERRILLAS IN 1972 AND FOUGHT WITH THEM AGAINST THE PAKISTANI MILITARY TILL 1976.

    HE THEN WENT INTO EXILE WITH THE MARRI BALOCH IN HELMAND IN 1977 AND STAYED THERE TILL 1992.

    MR TALPYR POPULARLY KNOWN AS USTAAD ARSHOO NOW FIGHTS HIS WAR WITH HIS PEN AND WRITES WEEKLY ARTICLES IN PAKISTANS DAILY TIMES.





    Respected and Dear Friends,
                                                       My recorded speech for the Baloch Students and Youth Association (BSYA) conference titled, 'The Baloch National Struggle: Past, Present and Future' in Birkbeck, University of London on 28th July 2013.
      With Very Best Regards
      Mir Mohammad Ali Talpur
     
    "I know that I am prejudiced on this matter, but I would be ashamed of myself if I were not."
    Mark Twain
     

    "A cynical, mercenary, demagogic press will produce in time a people as base as itself." - Joseph Pulitzer

        "Organized religion is like organized crime, it preys on people's weaknesses, generates huge profits for its operators and is almost impossible to eradicate" Mike Hermann

     



    Iran 2013 Reality Check for ISRAEL

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    Iran 2013 Reality Check for ISRAEL



    Iran 2013 Reality Check for ISRAEL





    http://natural-beauty-pavocavalry.blogspot.com/2012/07/a-us-attack-on-iran-agha-h-amin-january.html


    A US Attack on Iran-Agha H Amin-January 2012

    A US Attack on Iran
    Agha H Amin
    January 2012

     
    1. The Americans relying on Herat , Shindand and Farah bases launch main attack from North Eastern approach.
    2. These are preceeded by diversionary attacks on Chah Bahar,Bandar Abbas , Bandar Khomeini,Jask and a major land attack in Tabriz by Kurd forces from Iraq with US air power and artillery support.
    3. Simultaneously Baloch forces in Iran launch attacks on Chah Bahar and on Zahidan and on Zahidan Chah Bahar highway.
    4. Baloch forces from Iran enter Pakistani Balochistan and capture Panjgur and Turbat.
    5. The US requests Pakistan for use of Gwadar port and unilaterally lands its forces and captures Gwadar.
    6. Main attack proceeds from northeast and Tehran and Qum are surrounded.
    7. Kurd forces link up with US forces advancing from Tabriz.
    8. Iran capitulates.
    9. Independent Kurd and Baloch states are created within Iran and a transition government is set up from Iranianan exiles.
    10. The new Baloch state stretching from Sarakh in the north to Jask in the south completely separates Iran from Pakistan and Afghanistan.
    11. Foundation of an independent Baloch state in Pakistan is also laid in Panjgur and Makran regions.
    12. The US thus neutralises Iran and also creates a cordon sanitaire for the Turkmenistan pipeline down to Chah Bahar.In one stroke the need to negotiate with Taliban and Pakistan or Iran for a pipeline from CARs to the Arabian sea is disposed off.

    THE STRATEGY OF DUAL CENTRAL POSITION AS ASSESSED IN 2003
    US Strategy of Dual Central Position




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    by A. H. Amin
    While it is impossible to gauge exactly how USA intends pursuing its " War for Total World Domination" geography provides some clues about future US intentions. Geography is as valid in warfare and strategy as it was 1500 years ago. Jomini one of the great thinkers in modern strategy narrates an incident, which is as relevant today as it was in 1806. At the end of a conference in 1806 before Jena Campaign in which Napoleon humbled Prussia (Germany) Jomini asked Napoleon if he might join Napoleon later at a place called Bamberg ! Napoleon who thought that his destination was secret was annoyed asked Jomini " who told you that I am going to Bamberg ?" "The map of Germany, Sire and your campaigns of Marengo (1800) and Ulm (1805)" Jomini replied. While USA has not produced any Napoleon and in all probability would not produce any geography gives us many clues about future US designs . These clues are of interest for all concerned whether they are military analysts, Al Qaeda members, Third World military leaders, contractors, bankers, armaments dealers, real estate brokers etc.
    It appears that USA has adopted a Strategy which may be termed as one of "Dual central positions" ! One central region of operations in Afghanistan and now a second base of operations in Iraq. To supplement this base the USA has minor vassals like Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Jordan etc ! Afghanistan was gained by leapfrogging using Pakistan as a temporary base of operations during the period 2001-2002 . Afghanistan provides US with a choice of multiple strategic objectives ! It can threaten both Russia and China's strategic underbelly as earlier discussed in an article published in PRAVDA by this scribe in 2001 ! It can threaten both Pakistan and Iran from Afghanistan in addition to dominating entire Central Asian Region . USA can also support actively a future Islamic Insurgency in Chinese Singkiang from Afghanistan with Central Asian Republics as conduits as well as an independent Kashmir which it has been championing since long !
    Afghanistan can also be used as a base to support wars of insurgency or liberation in Pakistani and Iranian Baluchistan and as a convenient base to support aerial strikes against Pakistan , in Baghdad style ! If Pakistan counters it with a WMD attack it would only be attacking brother Muslim Afghans ! Afghanistan combined with an independent Baluchistan at some stage would also ensure a secure US line of communication all the way from Chah Bahar and Gwadar to Central Asia . A new base to launch deep strategic forays in the heart of Russia and China isolating and cutting off both from the vast natural oil and gas reserves of Central Asia and severing the Russian line of communication with Oil and Gas rich Siberia ! All fits well as long as Afghanistan remains quiet .A convincing argument that the sooner China and Russia start taking interest in aiding the Afghan insurgents the better it would be for their future strategic survival ! It's a question of survival for Russia an! d China !
    Iraq is USA 's second central position in the region . Iraq can again be used to threaten multiple objectives in the region . The Muslim states harbouring anti US terrorist groups like Syria, Lebanon , Iran. Oil rich Arab states like Saudi Arabia in case a radical anti monarchist coup threatens the status quo in Saudi Arabia and Turkey in case the Islamists gain greater strength in Turkey in the next ten years ! Iraq can be ideally used to fix iran by inspiring and aiding a Kurdish insurgency in Iran . Discipline Turkey by encouraging Kurd separatism in case the Turkish Islamists gain greater resolution ! Dominate Middle East Oil in general firmly ensuring USA' s overwhelming strategic control on worlds economy ! All is well as long as USA meets minimum resistance but all may not be at USA's feet in case Syria remains defiant , Iran actively assists Iraqi Shiites and the Arab masses finally decide to remove the shackles that have enslaved them for the last fifty years !
    While USA's strategy of Dual Central Positions is outwardly sound and subtle , it has germs of defeat . It appears that initially Afghanistan may pose serious problems for USA unless it arrives at a neat strategic solution with regard to attainment of its strategic objectives for which it has occupied Afghanistan namely " Final Solution of Pakistan's WMD capability" and " Domination of Central Asia and Western Iran". While Iraq was thought to be the centre of gravity of anti US/Israeli low intensity war Pakistan despite a docile military regime is regarded as centre of gravity of Islamic military resurgence. Afghanistan is merely the region where Islamist forces based in Pakistan practice and train ! Afghanistan therefore is not a US objective itself but a staging area to deal with a strategic objective (s) i.e. Pakistan ,Iran ,Central Asia , China , Russia etc . Pakistan has to be neutralised despite the fact that Musharraf is USA's blue eyed because it posseses WMD capability and stands in between Chinese Singkiang Central Asia and USA ! Iran has to be neutralised because it is ideologically against USA and is a base of anti US/Israeli low intensity warrior groups ! In this case Afghanistan the base area itself can prove dangerous for the USA ! Here mother nature seriously challenges US technology! There are no deserts like Iraq where US airpower can strike at will ! There are no big urban targets like Baghdad capture of which can lead to the collapse of the whole house ! There are no docile vassal states here like Kuwait and Jordan from where operations can be mounted .One side contains Pakistan's tribal area which the Britishers failed to pacify in 100 years .One side contains Iran which cannot be overawed like Pakistan by one phone call . The area in the north is cordoned by the Russian Army which has no love lost with USA and which remembers with grief its 14,000 men lost thanks to US Stingers and US aid in 1979 . Therefore Afghanistan the! Western Dual strategic base of USA would be more of a liability than a blessing. Any serious US move which threatens the strategic balance in the region may bring China and Russia actively into the arena and continued sniping on part of anti US Afghan forces keeps the Americans on the hop ! Iraq as it stands today may prove initially easier to hold than Afghanistan but all in this case depends on Arab masses ! If they resign to their fate they will be reduced to sub humans and be ruled by foreigners as they were ruled in the Roman and Ottoman Turk times . If they resist and not overawed they may survive with honour and dignity !
    So much for geography and US designs ! War is the province of the unknown as Clausewitz states and Low Intensity War i.e. War in the Shadows is far more complex than winning the Second World War with overwhelming industrial might ! There are no Hiroshima's or Nagasakis in this region ! The area where the USA is fighting its new war is vast ! More vast than USA's air power capability! More rugged than Vietnam ! More diverse than any other continent ! It may not be well equipped but races which inhabit it cannot be wiped out like the Americans wiped out the Apaches,Sioux and many other Indian tribes ! It is a war of civilisations but one in which one civilisation will be pitched against at least three different civilisations ! This war for Mackinder's Heartland would not be fought in Iraq or Afghanistan alone but in all parts of the world including all major US and European cities ! This war does not have a front or rear or centre and no single centre of gravity ! We hope tha! t the Americans would brush up their strategic thought and knowledge of grand strategy and fight a short war and go with respect and grace rather than a decade long war which may prove to be  USA' s culminating point in the classic Clausewitzian sense !
    A. H Amin is a writer , journalist , ex editor of Defence Journal (Pakistan), ex Editor of Globe (Pakistan); author of Indo Pak Wars from 1947 to 1971, Man's Role in History and Land of the Pure (short stories). He contributed above article toMedia Monitors Network (MMN) from Sindh, Pakistan.




    Source:
    by courtesy & © 2003 A. H. Amin
    by the same author:





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    MATERIAL SUPPORTING THE ASSESSMENT RECEIVED FROM MY FRIEND MR AAMIR MUGHAL- A RETIRED INTELLIGENCE BUREAU OFFICER

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    Tuesday, May 24, 2011

    Wiki Leaks Memo on Iran & Pakistan & US Imperialism.

    TEHRAN, March 11 (UPI) -- Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari says a proposed gas pipeline from Iran to India would generate much-needed new jobs and economic development. Speaking Wednesday at the 10th Summit of the Economic Cooperation Organization in Tehran, Zardari called for the speedy implementation of the so-called Peace Pipeline, the state-run Iranian news agency IRNA reported. The proposed $7.5 billion, 1,500-mile pipeline would transport natural gas from Iran's Pars field through Pakistan to India. It is opposed by the United States, which says it would bind its key South Asian allies too closely to Iran, analysts say. In the speech, Zardari cited "deeply-rooted ties between Iran and Pakistan" and said the two nations "shared many historical common points," IRNA paraphrased. Zardari also urged ECO member states use the global economic crisis as an opportunity, saying Asia has the ability to rev up its economic engines to overcome the situation, the news agency said. REFERENCE: Zardari, in Iran, backs 'Peace Pipeline' Published: March. 11, 2009 at 9:41 AM http://www.upi.com/Top_News/2009/03/11/Zardari-in-Iran-backs-Peace-Pipeline/UPI-79371236778880/

    TEHRAN Iran finalised a $7 billion "peace pipeline" deal on Sunday to export natural gas to Pakistan by 2015, Irans state television reported. "The deal was signed. Export of Irans gas to Pakistan will be launched by the end of 2015," state TV reported. "For 25 years Iran will export one million cubic metres of natural gas to Pakistan per day," it said. The project is crucial for Pakistan to avert a growing energy crisis already causing severe electricity shortages in the country of about 170 million, at the same time as it confronts Islamist militancy. Iran has the worlds second largest gas reserves after Russia but has struggled for years to develop its oil and gas resources. Iranian officials say the country needs $25 billion to develop its crucial energy industry. Sanctions by the West, political turmoil and construction delays have slowed Irans development as an exporter. The pipeline will connect Irans giant South Fars gas field with Pakistans southern Baluchistan and Sindh provinces. State television said the pipeline was 1,000 km (620 miles) long, with about 907 km of it already built. Dubbed the "peace pipeline," the project has been planned since the 1990s and originally would have extended from Pakistan to its old rival, India. New Delhi has been reluctant to join the project because of its long-running distrust of Pakistan. Under a deal signed in March, Pakistan will be allowed to charge a transit fee if the proposed pipeline is eventually extended to India. The United States has tried to discourage India and Pakistan from any deal with Iran because of Tehrans disputed nuclear programme, which the West fears is a cover to build bombs. Iran, hit by a fourth round of UN sanctions on Wednesday over its refusal to suspend its uranium enrichment activities, denies any such ambitions. REFERENCE: Iran approves "peace pipeline" deal with Pakistan June 13, 2010 http://archives.dawn.com/archives/103343

    Seymour Hersh- US is funding Al-Qaeda to counter Iran - 1


    RICHARD Holbrook, US Special Envoy for Pakistan mandated to secure and promote US agenda in the region, is now a familiar figure with frequent visits to Islamabad. He has gradually become more intrusive in Pakistan politics and governance and consequently more unwelcome. Holbrook carries an unsavoury record and reputation for his diplomatic exploits in Latin America. During his recent call on Islamabad, Holbrook evinced deep interest in the energy requirements of Pakistan and offered $1billion to boost the energy sector, stating that "US is determined to support Pakistan for peace and stability, for fight against terrorism and for alleviation of poverty".

    The offer however is not an altruistic as Holbrook made it out. The severe energy crisis that  Pakistan is facing today has had enormous negative impact on its economic development and political stability. The long power outages across the country has made it an issue of extreme volatility causing suffering in the daily life of Pakistani and putting Pakistan`s economic future in serious jeopardy . Pakistan`s energy requirements are increasing in geometrical ratio, and not only economic growth but political stability is directly linked with the availability of adequate energy resources. Pakistan initiated discussions with Iran in 1985 for construction of a natural gas pipeline linking Karachi with the South Pars natural gas field. The agreement called "peace pipeline" was signed by the president of Iran and Pakistan in Turkey on June 4,  2009, after considerable delay and lengthy negotiations, on price formula, security guarantee and transit royalties.

    Iran has some 15.7 per cent of the world`s natural gas reserves, second only to Russia. Although its share in the global market does not reflect it, primarily due to US sanctions against Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1980. However, now Iran is following an aggressive export policy and it is expected that given the ever increasing demand for energy by China, India and Europe, Iran`s total gas export will reach $18 billion in 2025. The pipeline would run about 1,115 km in Iran, 705 km in Pakistan and 850 km in India, had it joined IPI. Total investment is estimated at $7.04 billion and may take 4-5 years for completion. The US has continued its opposition to the proposed pipeline and urged India and Pakistan to abandon the project and instead explore alternative sources, such as coal, wind or solar energy. Samuel Bodman, Energy Secretary under Bush administration conveyed US concerns "If IPI is allowed to be formed in our judgment, this will contribute to the development of nuclear weapons by Iran. We need to stop this". The US has periodically conveyed its concerns at the highest level. This policy remains constant and now even more strident in the context of Iran nuclear standoff with US.

    Despite the fact that energy needs of Pakistan are desperate and immediate, the US ignoring this consideration has mounted strong pressure on Pakistan to abandon Iran pipeline accord. Ambassador Holbrook in his discussion with Pakistani authorities assured them that the US was well aware of the energy crisis confronting Pakistan. He told them that if Pakistan foregoes the agreement providing gas import from Iran the US would help import electricity from Tajikistan through Afghanistan via Wakhan corridor. It would construct high voltage power transmission lines from Tajikistan to Pakistan. Holbrook assured that within the next four years US will assist another mega project in Pakistan costing 1 billion dollars. India was involved in the IPI project in the beginning but succumbed to the US pressure and opted out. Pakistan under the circumstances is not likely to resist any longer. The World Bank has also joined the US effort and warned Pakistan that major multilateral donors will stay away from the projects due to US opposition and hence the safe course for Pakistan would be to give up the project of Iran. It has instead proposed gas line project with Tajikistan known as TAPI.

    TAPI is a 1680-km, 56-inch diameter gas pipeline starting from Dauletabad field in Turkmenistan to Fazilka at the Pakistan-India border, passing through Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan and Multan in Pakistan. It is estimated that the pipeline will carry $3 to 5 trillion oil and natural gas from the Caspian Sea basin via Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Two oil refineries and four thermal power houses, with a 1,000 MW capacity will  also be built for shipment of gas to other Asian markets. Pakistan government has already awarded the contract for laying the TAPI gas pipeline project to US-based International Oil Company  (IOC). The four nation — Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India (TAPI) pipeline — project is part of the grand US design to set up a regional power grid stretching from Almaty to New Delhi. Central Asia with abundance of existing and potential oil gas and electricity sources can meet the growing demands of South Asia and also advance regional economic development and integration.

    Given the US strategic interest in TAPI investment problems associated with IPI are not likely to prove a hurdle. ADB has shown interest in funding the project and agreed to a comprehensive review of the feasibility study to invite foreign investment. The four partners have agreed to formulate a long term pricing mechanism and a draft of the gas sales and purchase agreement would be ready soon. The issues of payment of transit fees to Afghanistan and Pakistan taxation structure and consortium procedures will be finalised by the end year. The supply is to begin in 2015. While the prospects for TAPI appear bright, the challenges of security situation in Afghanistan and the state of relations between India and Pakistan put a question mark on the completion of the project within stipulated time frame. The open and determined US opposition to IP project makes it highly improbable that the project signed between Pakistan and Iran on June 4, 2009 could be implemented. The project is not likely to get any investors and hence the project appears to be still born. Pakistan and Iran have already signed the Gas Sales Purchase Agreement and the deadline for the submission of conditions precedents (CP) by Pakistan was September 5, 2009 which in view of the constraint explained above has been extended until this month. The prevailing  circumstances leave little space for Pakistan and it may have to opt out of the agreement. The stakes for Pakistan are very high. Pakistan`s diplomacy is facing its severest test. The negative impact on our bilateral relations with Iran could be well imagined in the event of Pakistan`s withdrawal. Pakistan should continue meeting its obligations under IPI to protect its national interests and avoid friction with the United States. There are reports of China`s interest in IPI. Pakistan should simultaneously intensify its diplomatic efforts to bring China on board, which given the rising cost of fuel and galloping needs of Chinese burgeoning economy may not be difficult to achieve. This is no small consideration for the sort of influence Pakistan would gain in resisting US pressure vis-Ã -vis IPI should TAPI run into serious schedule delays due to volatile security situation in Afghanistan. The writher is a former ambassador. REFERENCE: Energy crisis & Pakistan`s dilemma By Tayyab Siddiqui February 7, 2010 http://archives.dawn.com/archives/152745
    Seymour Hersh- US is funding Al-Qaeda to counter Iran - 2

    WITH energy crisis feared to worsen next year because of the doubling of natural gas shortfalls, the only apparent hope to keep the economic  engine running is the swift completion of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project and import of liquefied natural gas. Over the next 20 years or so, the country is likely to depend primarily on timely realisation of these two projects. The country has already lost decades in development of cheap hydro and coal resources for power generation, resulting in the rising power rates and long hours of loadshedding. But the opposition to Iran-Pakistan pipeline has not died down. During the recent bilateral strategic  dialogue concluded in Islamabad, the US officials clearly told Islamabad that Obama administration did not appreciate the gas import plan. They have tried to raise doubts over Iran`s reliability as a gas supplier and Tehran`s credibility not to seek tariff revisions after completion of the project. However they were surprised over the rates on which the two neighbourly countries have struck the deal.

    At current oil prices, the Iranian gas is estimated to cost Pakistan around $9 per MMBTU (million British thermal unit) and the price is capped at a maximum of $100 a barrel. This could be used only for power production because of its comparatively higher rates when compared with domestic gas price of about $4.5 per MMBTU. While opposing the Iranian gas project, the US has not shown any interest in going deep into Sui field in Balochistan and  in exploitation of over a trillion cubic feet of tight gas in small pockets across the country at economical rates. America is known to have made technological advancement for tapping such difficult resources. Pakistan had sought the US assistance for technical studies, surveys and latest production techniques to maximise domestic production of gas including from deep, shallow and tight horizons. This makes easier for Islamabad to resist the US pressure against Iranian gas project. It would be in the best interest of Iran and Pakistan to stick to the `peace pipeline` agreement, honour their mutual commitments and move swiftly to complete the multi-billion dollar project as early as possible.

    The agreements entail first gas flows by end 2014 which could be advanced by one year if domestic gas companies – SNGPL and SSGCL – are engaged to construct about 750-kilometer of pipeline. More so, because they are well versed with the terrain, routes and other technical details inside their country`s borders, given their vast existing pipeline network – one of the world`s largest integrated transmission system. The two companies have indicated to complete the pipeline in 36 months compared with estimates of minimum 48 months, presented by a consultant who had been engaged without a transparent process as required under the public procurement rules. Simultaneously, the LNG import is the key to resolution of short-term energy needs. The prime minister has decided to go ahead with the contract finalised with 4Gas and GDF Suez for import of 3.5 million tons per annum (500 million cubic feet per day), on which a lot of time has been lost due to unnecessary litigations. At the same time, the prime minister has agreed to allow other firms to bring in additional quantities of LNG. The benchmark prices agreed for contracted project would, however, need to be kept in mind to ensure that energy costs remain within affordable limits.

    Officials estimate that the gas shortfall is likely to almost double to more than two billion cubic feet a day (BCFD) even if the liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports planned over the next few months materialise. The most important thing is to put all resources and efforts together to expedite and enhance domestic oil and gas production. The OGDCL, the PPL and others have been sitting on vast hydrocarbon resources for decades because of bureaucratic wrangling and security reasons, which should end, given the increasing energy shortages. As of now, the gap between gas demand and supply stand at around one BCFD this year and the plan to import gas from Iran through a proposed pipeline would, at best, materialise in four to five years. The shortage of one BCFD this winter, would go up to 2.1 BCFD by next year. The demand and supply estimates suggest that the gas shortfalls would increase by more than 300 per cent to 6.5 BCFD by 2020.

    The projections imply that while gas demand would maintain a steady increase over the next 10 years — from 4.8 BCFD now to 8.6 BCFD in 2020 — the supplies would register a further decline, from four BCFD this year to 2.11 BCFD by 2020. Over the next two years, however, the supplies would slightly increase by 0.5 BCFD because of LNG imports. The estimates suggest the shortfalls would increase despite a projected gas import through the IPI pipeline in 2014 and LNG imports next year because of the decrease in domestic production. These estimates indicate that shortfalls would be even higher if taken at the historic 6.5 per cent growth rate rather than 4.5 per cent assumed earlier. Many believe that the demand, supply and shortfall estimates were still conservative given the fact that these had been prepared keeping in mind the current downturn in economic activities. That would mean even higher reliance on imported fuels like diesel and furnace oil to meet electricity demand. The oil import bill last year stood at about $9.5 billion and is forecast to be around $11.6 billion this year. If the gas import pipeline is not completed, oil import bill could reach $15 billion in only two years. In the recent past, the previous government had planned five major initiatives to meet energy requirements, including three gas import pipelines, Gwadar port as an energy hub and LNG import. There has been no progress on these three pipeline projects, while building  energy facilities at Gwadar has remained a pipe dream chiefly because of security situation. REFERENCE: Energy security options By Khaleeq Kiani June 21, 2010 http://archives.dawn.com/archives/15865
    Seymour Hersh- US is funding Al-Qaeda to counter Iran - 3


    KARACHI: A US State Department official in a meeting urged President Asif Ali Zardari against accepting Iran's offer of concessional oil for Pakistan and providing Iran with a foothold in Pakistan, a 'Secret' American diplomatic cable made available to Dawn reveals. The meeting between Richard Boucher, US  Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia during the Bush administration, and President Zardari took place on October 18, 2008 at the Aiwan-e-Sadr, during which Mr Zardari apprised the visiting official of the Iranian offer that the President "did not believe he could refuse." "How could he go to the National Assembly and tell them Iran had offered the assistance and Pakistan had turned it down, he asked rhetorically," the then US Ambassador to Pakistan Anne W. Patterson wrote in the cable dated October 22, 2008, referring to President Zardari. She added that, "Boucher reminded him of Ambassador Haqqani's recent conversation with Deputy Secretary Negroponte in which the Deputy cautioned against providing Iran with a toehold in Pakistan." The cable illustrates how US officials tried influencing Pakistan's policy not only with regard to Iran but also indicates how and with whom Pakistan had been dealing with at the time in order to meet its energy requirements. The American caution about Irani oil is consistent with the US government's efforts to isolate Iran both militarily and economically. The oil offer was discussed months after Pakistan's Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) had approved the revised gas purchase agreement between Islamabad and Tehran for the import of gas through the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline (formerly the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline). The US has continually expressed its reservations over the project from which India withdrew in 2008. REFERENCE: Don't provide Iran with a foothold, US told Pak By Qurat ul ain Siddiqui | From the Newspaper (6 hours ago) Today http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/24/dont-provide-iran-with-a-foothold-us-told-pak.html
    Seymour Hersh- US is funding Al-Qaeda to counter Iran - 4


    Months after the talks with Mr Boucher, President Zardari, in a discussion with a Congressional delegation headed by US Senator Patrick Leahy, again referred to Iran's offer to provide "oil, gas and electricity to Pakistan", another cable dated May 26, 2009 by Ms Patterson detailing the meeting states. Mr Zardari told the delegation during the May 25, 2009 meeting that "Pakistan desperately needed energy resources" and that "no on else – especially the Saudis" was ready to help. However, in a possible attempt to please the delegation, he went on to say: "I need you more than anyone else, so I will take my cue from you. Perhaps now it will be possible to work with Iran on energy issues." Interestingly, however, Ms Patterson noted in the cable that President Zardari asked for the "cue" a day after he and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had signed an inter-governmental framework declaration to support the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline agreement between the oil ministries of Pakistan and Iran. Moreover, around the time of the Boucher-Zardari meeting, along with pursuing the Iran gas pipeline project, Pakistan was in talks with the Chinese government over a deal to build two additional nuclear power plants for the country, once construction of the Chashma II reactor was completed. A contract to cooperate in building the two new nuclear reactors, commonly referred to as Chashma III and IV, at the Chashma atomic complex was eventually signed on June 8, 2010. The development occurred despite misgivings on part of the US and other governments which have every now and then stated that China should seek approval of  the reactors from the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a group of nuclear supplier countries that seeks to reduce nuclear proliferation and of which China is a member. On the other hand, the US government was almost simultaneously in touch with Saudi officials regarding Saudi-Pak  negotiations to assist Pakistan "by deferring crude oil payments", a previously published cable dated July 30, 2008 states. It further states that if the US government assessed that a "rapid implementation" of the Saudi offer was "critically important to the Pakistan government's stability, it will likely take USG intervention at the highest levels with senior Saudi officials…to secure its rapid implementation." REFERENCE: Cables referenced: WikiLeaks #174700, http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/24/2008-do-not-to-allow-iran-toehold-in-pakistan-us.html 208526, 164170 Don't provide Iran with a foothold, US told Pak By Qurat ul ain Siddiqui | From the Newspaper (6 hours ago) Today http://www.dawn.com/2011/05/24/dont-provide-iran-with-a-foothold-us-told-pak.html
    Seymour hersh and Scott Ritter on Iran 1-3


    Abdolhamid Rigi, brother of Abdolmalek Rigi who is the leader of Sunni rebel group Jundollah, attends a news conference in Zahedan. &md
    The arrest of Jundallah leader Abdolmalek Rigi on Tuesday should have a positive impact on Iran-Pakistan relations. The terrorist leader and his deputy were arrested by Iranian security forces when a Bishkek-bound flight was diverted to Iran to catch a man whose organisation was responsible for a deadly terrorist attack last October that killed 35 civilians, besides seven revolutionary guards. While Tehran never really joined the `do more` chorus to pressure Islamabad for action against the plethora of banned — and not banned — militant outfits in this country, the Iranian government had serious reservations about the efficacy of Pakistan`s policy, especially with regard to the anti-Iran terrorists operating close to its border in Pakistani Balochistan. On a visit to this country following last October`s crime, Iranian Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar reportedly provided Islamabad with proof of Jundallah`s activities here and its use of Pakistani soil for acts of terrorism against his country. For its part, Islamabad was vocal in denying that Rigi was ever based in Pakistan. But the ease with which militants of various nationalities have operated in this country for years has given a hollow ring to official protestations. Look at the most recent example Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, one of the Afghan Taliban`s top commanders, was arrested earlier this month in Karachi. He reportedly lived in Pakistan for several years and seemingly enjoyed the freedom to direct Taliban operations inside Afghanistan. Many people have aired suspicions that the so-called Quetta Shura leadership has started moving to the port city now. Against this backdrop, Jundallah`s claim that Pakistani intelligence helped in Rigi`s arrest should serve to remove some misunderstandings between Tehran and Islamabad.  Additionally, along with Mullah Baradar`s arrest it may also mark a dramatically different, and welcome, approach by the Pakistani security set-up. REFERENCE: Jundallah chief`s arrest February 25, 2010 http://archives.dawn.com/archives/32473 Iran's Arrest of an Extremist Foe: Did Pakistan Help? By Ishaan Tharoor Thursday, Feb. 25, 2010 http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1968126,00.html
    Seymour hersh and Scott Ritter on Iran 2-3



    Annals of National Security - The Iran Plans Would President Bush go to war to stop Tehran from getting the bomb? by Seymour M. Hersh April 17, 2006 The Bush Administration, while publicly advocating diplomacy in order to stop Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon, has increased clandestine activities inside Iran and intensified planning for a possible major air attack. Current and former American military and intelligence officials said that Air Force planning groups are drawing up lists of targets, and teams of American combat troops have been ordered into Iran, under cover, to collect targeting data and to establish contact with anti-government ethnic-minority groups. The officials say that President Bush is determined to deny the Iranian regime the opportunity to begin a pilot program, planned for this spring, to enrich uranium. American and European intelligence agencies, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (I.A.E.A.), agree that Iran is intent on developing the capability to produce nuclear weapons. But there are widely differing estimates of how long that will take, and whether diplomacy, sanctions,  or military action is the best way to prevent it. Iran insists that its research is for peaceful use only, in keeping with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and that it will not be delayed or deterred. There is a growing conviction among members of the United States military, and in the international community, that President Bush's ultimate goal in the nuclear confrontation with Iran is regime change. Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has challenged the reality of the Holocaust and said that Israel must be "wiped off the map." Bush and others in the White House view him as a potential Adolf Hitler, a former senior intelligence official said. "That's the name they're using. They say, 'Will Iran get a strategic weapon and threaten another world war?' " REFERENCE: Annals of National Security - The Iran Plans Would President Bush go to war to stop Tehran from getting the bomb? by Seymour M. Hersh April 17, 2006 http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2006/04/17/060417fa_fact Target Iran: Former UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter and Investigative Journalist Seymour Hersh on White House Plans for Regime Change December 21, 2006 http://www.democracynow.org/2006/12/21/target_iran_former_un_weapons_inspector
    Seymour hersh and Scott Ritter on Iran 3-3

    Annals of National Security - The Coming Wars What the Pentagon can now do in secret. by Seymour M. Hersh January 24, 2005 George W. Bush's reëlection was not his only victory last fall. The President and his  national-security advisers have consolidated control over the military  and intelligence communities' strategic analyses and covert operations to a degree unmatched since the rise of the post-Second World War national-security state. Bush has an aggressive and ambitious agenda for using that control—against the mullahs in Iran and against targets in the ongoing war on terrorism—during his second term. The C.I.A. will continue to be downgraded, and the agency will increasingly serve, as one government consultant with close ties to the Pentagon put it, as "facilitators" of policy emanating from President Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney. This process is well under way. Despite the deteriorating security situation in Iraq, the Bush Administration has not reconsidered its basic long-range policy goal in the Middle East: the establishment of democracy throughout the region. Bush's reëlection is regarded within the Administration as evidence of America's support for his decision to go to war. It has reaffirmed the position of the neoconservatives in the Pentagon's civilian leadership who advocated the invasion, including Paul Wolfowitz, the Deputy Secretary of Defense, and Douglas Feith, the Under-secretary for Policy. According to a former high-level intelligence official, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld met with the Joint Chiefs of Staff shortly after the election and told them, in essence, that the naysayers had been heard and the American people did not accept their message. Rumsfeld added that America was committed to staying in Iraq and that there would be no second-guessing. "This is a war against terrorism, and Iraq is just one campaign. The Bush Administration is looking at this as a huge war zone," the former high-level intelligence official told me. "Next, we're going to have the Iranian campaign. We've declared war and the bad guys, wherever they are, are the enemy. This is the last hurrah—we've got four years, and want to come out of this saying we won the war on terrorism." Bush and Cheney may have set the policy, but it is Rumsfeld who has directed its implementation and has absorbed much of the public criticism when things went wrong—whether it was prisoner abuse in Abu Ghraib or lack of sufficient armor plating for G.I.s' vehicles in Iraq. Both Democratic and Republican lawmakers have called for Rumsfeld's dismissal, and he is not widely admired inside the military. Nonetheless, his reappointment as Defense Secretary was never in doubt. REFERENCE: Annals of National Security - The Coming Wars What the Pentagon can now do in secret. by Seymour M. Hersh January 24, 2005 http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/01/24/050124fa_fact Target Iran: Former UN Weapons Inspector Scott Ritter and Investigative Journalist Seymour Hersh on White House Plans for Regime Change December 21, 2006 http://www.democracynow.org/2006/12/21/target_iran_former_un_weapons_inspector

    "QUOTE"


    2008: DO NOT TO ALLOW IRAN TOEHOLD IN PAKISTAN: US


    174700 10/22/2008 8:58 


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    E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2018

    TAGS: PGOV, PK, PREL, PTER

    SUBJECT: ZARDARI EXPRESSES DELIGHT WITH CHINA VISIT, LOOKS

    TO FRIENDS FOR HELP ON CHALLENGES


    Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b), (d)



    1. (S/NF) Summary: In a wide-ranging discussion with visiting SCA Assistant Secretary Boucher, President Zardari expressed complete satisfaction with his just concluded visit to China, reviewed planning  for the Friends of Pakistan, and reiterated his determination to press the fight against extremism  and the militancy in the tribal areas. He linked his ability to sustain the counter-insurgency fight to progress on addressing Pakistan,s economic woes, however, and chastised the IMF for only wanting to &take away8 in its negotiations. Zardari alerted Boucher to Iran's offer of concessional oil for Pakistan, an offer he did not believe he could refuse. Boucher reminded him of the Deputy Secretary's recent caution not to allow Iran to gain a toehold in Pakistan. End Summary.

    2. (SBU) Visiting Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs Richard Boucher called on President Zardari at the Aiwan-e-Sadr, October 18. He was accompanied by the Ambassador, DCM (notetaker), and SCA Senior Advisor Hayden. Minister of Information Sherry Rehman joined Zardari.

    China Visit

    ————-

    3. (S/NF) Zardari told Boucher his visit to China was

    &great.8 He confirmed that the Chinese had committed to building two additional nuclear power plants for Pakistan ) Chashma 3 and 4. He noted, however, that construction would not start until the completion of the Chashma 2 reactor, which he anticipated would require an additional five years. Commenting that the Chinese were providing only old technology, Zardari said that Pakistan had no choice but to accept &junk.8 Boucher told Zardari we would examine the implications of the new nuclear deal vis–vis the International Atomic Energy Agency and let the Pakistanis know if we anticipated any problems with the deal.

    4. (S/NF) Zardari also told Boucher that the Chinese had committed to providing assistance to Pakistan,s security forces. Arguing that China was Pakistan,s only affordable option for needed security items, Zardari  said the government plans to acquire armored vehicles, body armor, and small arms from China.  The Chinese also plan to provide large scanners to Pakistan to help check the contents of trucks. Boucher and the Ambassador reminded Zardari that the U.S. is working with the Frontier Corps on a comprehensive train and equip program. (Comment: Embassy is preparing a letter to Zardari reviewing the details of the U.S. government's extensive support to the Frontier Corps. End Comment)

    5. (C) Although silent on the question of possible Chinese balance of payments support to Pakistan, Zardari lauded Chinese &out-of-box8 thinking about business investment in Pakistan. As an example, he described a project to build a dam that would irrigate land that Zardari would then grant to women, who would grow flowers on the land for export to the Emirates. The Chinese will manage the marketing for the
    project.

    Friends of Pakistan

    ———————–

    6. (C) Zardari confirmed that he wants to formally change the name of the group to Friends of Democratic Pakistan. In response to Boucher's question about the Saudi position, he provided Boucher with a convoluted description of his discussions with Prince Turki bin Abdullah, who requested Zardari,s participation in the Interfaith Dialogue that the King is organizing in New York. In exchange, Zardari expects that the Saudis will be full participants in the Friends group (see septel).

    7. (C) As for other possible additions to the Friends group, Boucher suggested that Spain and the Scandinavians might be ISLAMABAD 00003339 002 OF 003 good additions. Zardari assented, and asked Boucher if the U.S. would support Libya's inclusion, to which Boucher agreed. Zardari suggested to Boucher that he would like China added to the steering group. Boucher was open to the idea but noted that the steering committee needed to remain small.

    8. (C) Boucher reminded Zardari that the Friends group is not a &checkbook8 organization. He noted that we need to sit with the steering group and consider issues like membership and the role of the UN. We are hoping that the UN will help drive the process by providing a secretariat function. After the next meeting in Abu Dhabi, the U.S. vision would be to launch a series of experts meeting that would consider Pakistani policies and initiatives in a sector-by-sector review.

    9. (S/NF) In an aside, Zardari mentioned that Iran has offered to provide Pakistan with concessional oil. How could he go to the National Assembly and tell them Iran had offered the assistance and Pakistan had turned it down, he asked rhetorically. Boucher reminded him of Ambassador Haqqani,s recent conversation on this issue with Deputy Secretary Negroponte in which the Deputy cautioned against providing Iran with a toehold in Pakistan.

    Counter-Insurgency

    ———————–

    10. (S) Zardari stressed repeatedly his determination to carry through with the fight against extremism and militancy. &I don't believe in talking to the Taliban,8 he said. &We won't do it on our side of the border.8 He noted that he has built a good relationship with the military and praised the leadership of Chief of Army Staff Kayani, ISI Director General Pasha, and Frontier Corps General Tariq Khan. To challenge the fundamentalists, however, Zardari needs to gain the confidence of the Army, the National Assembly, and the people. To do that, he believes he must address the economic situation and demonstrate that he can deliver on his economic promises. Zardari chastised the IMF for just wanting to &take away8 from Pakistan in the negotiations over a bailout package.

    11. (C) In response to Boucher,s question about the National Assembly debate on Pakistan,s counter-insurgency strategy, Zardari expressed confidence that he would succeed in winning from the Assembly a consensus resolution on the government,s policy. (N.B.: A day earlier, both National Security Advisor Durrani and Information Minister Rehman expressed skepticism that an acceptable consensus resolution was achievable.) Nawaz Sharif,s Pakistan Muslim League is offering no help on Pakistan,s counter-terrorism policy, Zardari opined. Rehman added that Nawaz and Chaudhry Nisar have a &good cop/bad cop8 routine. Nawaz says good things about his party's commitment to cooperation, but Nisar does the opposite in the Assembly.

    12. (C) Describing his legislative strategy going forward, Zardari said that proposed revisions to the Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR) are nearly ready to bring to the Assembly. He anticipates that the extension of the Political Parties Act to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (permitting political parties to organize and campaign in the tribal areas under the same regulations as apply to the rest of the country) would be introduced within three months. Zardari also described a de-radicalization program he plans on introducing in the Assembly. Zardari will propose a criminal regime for &small fries8 that would sentence them to seven years in a &special prison8 to be constructed for handling reforming militants. While in the prison, the militants would receive job training and would receive lenient treatment, including conjugal rights. &I won't stop pressing,8 Zardari declared, &either he (the militant) dies or he takes the option.8 Anyone caught a second time after going through the reform program will be sent to prison for ISLAMABAD 00003339 003 OF 003 life, Zardari declared.

    13. (S) Turning to the fighting in Bajaur, Zardari asserted that the government needs a mechanism to get compensation into the hands of the victims of the fighting, suggesting that he thought one billion U.S. dollars might be sufficient. Responding that we anticipate the financial requirement would be less than that, Boucher and the Ambassador assured Zardari we are looking for ways that we can help. Zardari asked if the Friends of Democratic Pakistan might be of help, but Boucher reiterated that such assistance would likely fall outside the mandate of the group. Zardari then suggested that the Saudis could provide the necessary funds, noting that &the problem leads back to them.8 Rehman interjected that the National Assembly members were asking how the militants were getting their funds and raised the flow of funds from  the Gulf to extremists in Pakistan. (DCM observed that efforts to stop funding terrorist groups were not helped by Pakistan,s obstruction of work in the UN 1267 Committee, mentioning specifically the hold on Katrina. Zardari expressed surprise that Pakistan was playing such a role, and Rehman made note of the issue.)

    14. (S) As for the Pakistan-Afghanistan mini-jirga scheduled for Islamabad in a week's time, Zardari expressed the hope that it will re-occupy political space in the tribal areas. He expressed the hope that the jirga could re-consolidate the government,s position among the majority of the tribes, noting that the government,s greatest challenge in rooting out the extremists is when they are able to shelter among the population in the area. As for leadership of the Pakistani delegation to the jirga, Sherry Rehman noted that Asfandyar Wali Khan, who had been proposed as the senior Pakistani, will not be back in Pakistan in time for the meeting. She suggested that Asfandyar is in &bad shape8 following the terrorist attack on his home near Charsadda. Zardari indicated separately that he is helping Asfandyar relocate his family to Dubai and would provide him with an armored vehicle when he returns to Pakistan.

    Friends: the U.S. and the UK

    ———————————–

    15. (C) Zardari mused about the need to reach out to the new U.S. Administration after the elections and suggested that he would like to organize a &road show8 to visit the U.S. and explain Pakistan,s situation.  Boucher suggested that such an effort could emphasize U.S.-Pakistani cooperation on the border coordination centers, the Joint Military Operations Coordination Center, and the Frontier Corps train and equip program.

    16. (S/NF) As for the UK, Zardari expressed some concern  that their support was getting wobbly. He believes that their views reflect their conviction that Zardari would fail and would be replaced by Nawaz Sharif. Boucher thought that the concerns are more a reflection of attitude than policy. If Zardari achieves results, he asserted, then the British will come around.

    Comment

    - – - -

    17. (S/NF) Zardari was clearly buoyed by his visit to China and in good spirits as he looks ahead to the serious challenges that confront him and the country. He ran through numerous ideas for new initiatives to deal with the political, economic, and security problems, nearly all of which come with high price tags. In that regard, Zardari continues to express considerable optimism that, ultimately, his friends will ride to his rescue despite little evidence to support that view.

    PATTERSON

    2008: DO NOT TO ALLOW IRAN TOEHOLD IN PAKISTAN: US






    "UNQUOTE"





     
     


    No comments:

    A VERY STRANGE AL QAEDA THREAT FATHERED BY BROOKINGS AND US ESTABLISHMENT

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    A VERY STRANGE AL QAEDA THREAT FATHERED BY BROOKINGS AND US ESTABLISHMENT

    AGHA H AMIN

    THE INTERESTING PART OF SO CALLED WAR ON TERROR IS THAT WE ARE AT MERCY OF US STATE FOR ALL NEWS ABOUT AL QAEDA.

    SO THE REPORTS GO............

    AL QAEDA IS ON THE RUN,

    AL QAEDA HAS 30 MEMBERS LEFT IN AF PAK........

    AIMAN AL ZAWAHRI DISAPPEARS......

    NOW AFTER MANY YEARS ZAWAHRI COMES BACK ?

    SAYS WHO ?

    US NASA INTERCEPT ?

    AL QAEDA NEVER ATTACKS ANY USAID CONTRACTOR IN PAKISTAN ?

    AL QAEDA ALLOWS US CONTRACTORS TO HAVE A CUSHY TIME IN AFGHANISTAN.

    AL QAEDA OMLY LIKES TO KILL UNARMED PAKISTANI , AFGHAN AND IRAQI CIVILIANS.

    MYSTERIOUSLY AL QAEDAS 98 % TARGETS ARE MUSLIMS AND MOSTLY CIVILIANS?

    AL QAEDA AND TERRORISTS ARE ONLY ACTIVE IN AF PAK ?

    AL QAEDA AND TERRORISTS DONT LIKE TO ATTACK SAUDI ARABIA, BAHRAIN,QATAR,KUWAIT OR TURKEY ?

    EUROPE IS NOT AFFECTED BY AL QAEDA ?

    AL QAEDA BECOMES ACTIVE SUDDENLY FROM MID 2013 AND PARTICULARLY IN AF PAK AS US HAS TO WITHDRAW FROM AFGHANISTAN.

    HILARIOUS AT BEST ?

    IT IS THE SAME BROOKINGS WHO HAS PRODUCED STEPHEN COHEN WHO STATED IN HIS BOOK THAT THERE WERE NO ALL MUSLIM UNITS IN INDIAN ARMY ?


    IT IS THE SAME AL QAEDA WITH SHUJA NAWAZ WHOSE PAKISTAN ARMY BOOK WAS FULL OF SHEER FACTUAL DISTORTIONS AND FALLACIES.



    AND NOW IT IS MR RIEDEL BUSY IN THIS GENETIC FARMING OF AL QAEDA THREE ?

    NO CONSPIRACY THEORIES , JUST HARD FACTS ?

    BRUCE RIEDEL CRITIQUED ON FAULTY AND MYOPIC THREAT PERCEPTION

    EXCERPT FROM A BOOK THAT I JUST FINISHED READING





     Bruce Riedel and various American analysts have depicted Pakistan as the most dangerous place in the world .They feel that Pakistans nuclear arsenal is the fastest growing and Pakistan is also the centre of Islamic terrorism.

    It is worthwhile plotting the major insurgent groups on the map and discussing this American charge sheet.For one this scribe is not sympathetic about Pakistani chauvinism it is important to treat the situation dispassionately.

    The map below depicts major insurgent groups in Af Pak:---








     The most significant group in this scenario are the Afghan Taliban.The Afghan Taliban are pro Pakistani state or lets say pro Pakistani military .They owe their survival if not existence to the Pakistani military.

    The Afghan Taliban constitute some 80 % of all Taliban militant groups in the Af Pak region in number and some 65 to 70 % of all insurgent groups.

    The Afghan Taliban have no international terrorist agenda and are no threat to Pakistans nuclear program.This removes more than 70 % of the threats that analysts like Riedel may see as dangerous to world peace.
    The TTP are the second largest group in the Af Pak region.They have an Islamic extremist agenda , have ambitions of attacking Pakistani nuclear installations and possibly want to capture a nuclear weapon.However their effectiveness has been severely reduced after military operations against them in 2008-10.They have no known capability to mount anything other than suicide attacks and IED attacks.
    Much of the Al Qaeda and Punjabi extremist groups are attached with them.Al Qaeda as per US officials own statements has been reduced to 30 in this area.
    The third largest group are the Baloch extremists in Pakistan and large parts of Iran , which is beyond the scope of this work.The Baloch insurgents occupy a large area but are weak in hitting power.They do not have an Islamic extremist character , are by and large secular and not capable of threatening Pakistans nuclear program.More than this it is most important to note that the Baloch extremists have no ambition or desire to capture Pakistani nuclear weapons.These Baloch insurgents view US as their best possible international ally and savior.This removes 10 to 15 % more of the possible threats in the region.
    The threat where it exists is in four scenarios:---

    1. Pakistani states resolve to use Afghan Taliban to capture whole Afghanistan and to enforce their extremist and narrow ethnic agenda on non Pashtuns and moderate Pashtuns.This would lead to a new civil war where extremists in Afghanistan will go more powerful and regional rivalry and threat of nuclear war may............................


    2. .............................................

    3..............................................

    4................................................................

    EMINENT US REVIEWERS CAN BE PROVIDED A COMPLIMENTARY COPY BY THE AUTHOR MAJOR AGHA H AMIN - 

    strategicus.c@gmail.com




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    USA,ISI,AL QAEDA AND TALIBAN-SETTING STRAIGHT BRUCE RIEDELS STRATEGIC NARRATIVE [Paperback]

    Agha Humayun Amin  
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    Book Description

    14 Nov 2012
    Those terrorists are planning to attack the US from Pakistan and Afghanistan is a captivating headline but not based on facts. FBI and various US agency statistics prove that Muslims are the lowest percentage groups in any violence in the US. The highest group involved in violence in the US being Hispanics and various other gangs. There is also another interesting figure that Americans are more likely to be killed by an accident involving their furniture or by an accident rather than a terrorist act. 9/11 although tragic and massive has not been repeated. US decision makers and analysts have long held the mistaken view that Pakistan holds the key to destroying the Taliban and Al Qaeda. The Pakistani military thinks that this very idea would weaken and destroy Pakistan. A weaker Taliban would mean a greater US threat for Pakistan! The Pakistani military feels that US prime target is to denuclearize Pakistan. It further feels that US sees India as policeman of the region and future US policy sees Pakistan as a fragmented, weakened, denuclearized Indian vassal. When analysts like Bruce Riedel state like Pakistan has the fastest growing nuclear arsenal in the world , their strategic narrative assumes a most hostile and sinister outlook for Pakistani military.

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    Exploding Terrorism in Pakistan & Future Gwadar-Kashgar Industrial Corridor

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    FROM MY DEAR FRIEND AMBASSADOR GAJENDRA SINGH FROM INDIA



     
    Exploding Terrorism in Pakistan & Future Gwadar-Kashgar Industrial Corridor
    Why not a Corridor from an Indian port via Kashmir
     
     
    Below is a very well researched article by William Engdahl on the upsurge of terrorism in Pakistan and its further explosions , and Islamabad's massive project with Beijing for an industrial corridor from the Baluchistan port of Gwadar to Kashgar in Xinjiang .Obviously Washington will try to sabotage it , by promoting separatism and if possible by detaching Baluchistan from Pakistan, since the former province has been brutally treated by all ruling regimes in Islamabad ( somewhat like detaching Montenegro from Serbia to divide and destroy Russian influence in the Balkans)
     
    I have also been of the view that no peace is likely to come in Pak Afghan region, with terror spillovers into the countries of the region including India .
     
    May that as it may be, I am proposing that since Gwadar –Kashgar corridor will be opposed by US, perhaps, even Russia and others and unlikely to fructify with growing terrorism, India could at least consider possibilities of a project to offer China another option, from a Saurashtra port in India via Rajasthan, etc and J and K's Ladakh region. It will give a stake to China in India's stability and economic growth .This will be a win-win situation for both India and China .Beijing is flush with funds in trillions and is even planning a canal in Nicaragua parallel to Panama canal for $ 40 billion .Look at China, Russia and other Central Asian states collaborating on energy and other projects.
    China is already building corridors linking it to Bay of Bengal via Myanmar and Bangladesh.
     
    Do not rely on US led bankrupt West for investment in projects in India .They will oppose such a project via India tooth and nail .US will be supported in India by its proxies led by media ignorantis and pimps and Indian diplomats , especially those who were once posted in USA and have been brainwashed on eternal US hegemony . Like Indian PM MM Singh they loved deeply George Bush and now Osama.
     
    With almost the same population, hard working Chinese GDP based on industrial production is almost 3 times India's and the gap is increasing. (When the European traders arrived in the subcontinent, Hindustan's (i.e. India, Pakistan and Bangladesh) share in world manufacturing was 24.5 percent (in 1750) and after the British had done with India, the sub-continent's share had fallen to 1.7 percent (It was 32.8% and 6.1% respectively for China) and that of Britain had increased from 1.9 percent (in 1750) to 22.9 percent (in 1880) - [Rise and fall of Big Powers by Professor Paul Kennedy].
     
    China has many internal and external aggravating problems and should be amenable to a border settlement or its freeze .I do not see India succeeding by force. Let the uninformed and ill informed Western pimps and ultranationalists in India shout at the top of their voice .China, Russia and other powers in Asia want stability and peace for economic growth to consolidate the incoming Asian century.
     
    At least give it a thought.
     
    Look at US ally Pakistan which while serving US interests in the region and Middle East , has been reduced to terror hub and narcotic paradise oozing into Indian Punjab and other states .In this do not forget the destructive role of Saudi petrodollars and Wahabi ideology in Pakistan and similar role in bringing Islamist PM autocrat Erdogans AKP govt ruled Turkey towards the precipice , as a result of which Ankara is now embroiled in a disastrous entanglement in Syria which is burning Turkey's border provinces with Syria and might even lead to separation of its Kurdish majority provinces if the region explodes like Iraq and Libya.
     
    One of the greatest strategic thinkers and executors of all times ,Ataturk had followed the motto of 'Peace at home and peace abroad '. Before his death on the eve of WWII , he had advised his successors not to join any side , which they did not ,so as not to be occupied by the Nazis and then be 'liberated' by the Soviets . In Iraq-Iran war and the 1991 US led war on Saddam Hussein Turkey did not join nor in 2003 .In this the Turkish armed forces played a key role and in 1990 , the military chief even resigned when President Ozal was itching to join in .In 2003 , military would have joined only if Ankara was asked to put its troops in north Kurdish Iraq , over which it has residual claims .
     
    Alas , the Turkish  armed forces have been humiliated and demoralized .How well can they fight if hundreds of its officers, retired and active , including top generals have been imprisoned and convicted .The backlash will come from the middle level officers .
     
    Kautilya, a strategic Indian thinker in ancient times had rightly said that
     
    "One shall make an alliance with a king who is stronger than one's neighboring enemy; in the absence of such a king, one should ingratiate oneself with one's neighboring enemy, either by supplying money or army or by ceding a part of one's territory and keeping oneself aloof; for there can be no greater evil to kings than alliance with a king of considerable power, unless one is actually attacked by one's enemy."
     
     "When the advantages derivable from peace and war are of equal character, one should prefer peace; for disadvantages such as loss of power and wealth, sojourning and sin are ever attending upon war."
     
    K.Gajendra Singh , 10 August , 2013.
     
     
    Pakistan to become the new 'major terror ground' in just six months
     
    William Engdahl is an award-winning geopolitical analyst and strategic risk consultant whose internationally best-selling books have been translated into thirteen foreign languages.
     
     
    Developing Pakistan-China ties which can drastically change the economic map of the region are threatened by Pakistani separatism, which might suddenly transform into another 'terror ground.'
    As Washington continues sending its development assistance aid in the form of drones to bomb civilians illegally inside Pakistan's borders, allegedly to go after Taliban fighters, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif recently completed a trip to Beijing where he met Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, his first foreign visit after the May elections. The Pakistani Federal Cabinet subsequently approved the start of negotiations and signing of a Memorandum of Understanding on developing a "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor" long-term plan, and an action plan between the development ministries of the two countries.
     
    The core of the new agreements between China and neighboring Pakistan calls for accelerated development of a 2,000-km trade infrastructure corridor linking Gwadar Port on Pakistan's Indian Ocean coast to Kashgar, the westernmost city in China's Xingjiang province. Pakistan has offered China a 'trade and energy corridor' via Gwadar, linked to inland roads. The plan would import oil from the Middle East, to refineries at Gwadar and sent on to China via roads, pipelines or railway
     
    Xinjiang is also the heart of China's known oil resources and a transit area for major oil and gas pipelines. The development will cost billions of euros, which China reportedly has now pledged in the form of 'soft loans'. The railway infrastructure will provide crucial links for transporting oil and gas from the Persian Gulf and minerals and food from Africa will be the heart of the new project.
     
     
    However, in six months this area will "suddenly" become a major "terror ground" that conveniently will disrupt the rail infrastructure link. It reminds me of the German Berlin-Baghdad Rail link to the Ottoman Empire before WWI that was the major cause for Britain to ally with Czarist Russia and France in the Triple Entente that became WWI in 1914.
     
    Asian-gulf economic powerhouse?
    China's needs for energy resources, food and minerals from the Gulf and Africa have boosted trade between the regions in the recent years. China's trade with the UAE alone has grown 15-fold since 2000 to reach $37 billion. It is expected to reach $100 billion by 2015. Some 2,500 Chinese firms have offices in Dubai. China's largest bank ICBC and the Bank of China also have branches in the Gulf sheikhdom where they are beginning to transact bilateral trade in Chinese renminbi rather than dollars.
     
    The Chinese are currently upgrading some 600 kilometers of the China-Pakistan highway. The KKH was built in 1986 from Kashgar through Pakistan and the upgrade will make it suitable for heavy container traffic and linking it to Gwadar Port. China and Pakistan are also working to link Gwadar port and Xinjiang through a new Chinese-financed railway network. This will turn Gwadar Port and the KKH into a trade corridor for China and other Central Asians countries and create in Gwadar an energy, transport, and industrial hub providing direct and economical access to the Arabian Sea for both China and resource rich Central Asian states. 
     
    It will generate billions of dollars in revenue for Pakistan and likely create about two million jobs.
    Pakistan and China have signed agreements to help energy starved Pakistan to utilize the hydro-electric potential offered by the area by constructing the Diamer-Bhasha and Bunji dams.
    China also wants to import gas from Iran by joining the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline that will pass through Gilgit Baltistan on the Pakistan border to Xinjiang in China.
     
    Also Pakistan and China have signed agreements to develop entirely new industrial cities in various parts of Pakistan along the route of the rail link, including at Gwadar.
     
    Close to the Straits of Hormuz, Gwadar has the potential to become the gateway to Central Asia and China. It's at the junction of the world's three most important strategic and economic regions–Middle East, South Asia and Central Asian states—giving it the potential, barring new wars, to generate billions in annual transit trade. As part of a shift in policy, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have recently been eagerly pursuing trade and economic links with China. 
     
    The availability of a major alterative trade route that cuts distance and time from the present long and slow 8000 km route by ship from the Persian Gulf through the Malacca Strait to the eastern seaboard of China will give both the Gulf states, as well as parts of Africa where China is very active, and Asia, huge economic benefits.  
     
    Enter Baluchistan 'Separatism'
    Conveniently for Washington, which has no interest in fostering greater Chinese independence of energy supply, in recent months a growing militant separatist movement has erupted on the scene in Baluchistan, the Pakistan province where Gwadar is located. 
     
    On June 15 this year, terror attacks including a suicide bombing of a bus filled with students and a gunfight in the city that left two dozen dead, hit the Baluchistan provincial capital of Quetta. 
    The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), a militant separatist group, claimed responsibility. The BLA wasn't acting alone. As the injured students were being rushed to hospital, they ran into an ambush by the 'Pakistani Taliban', Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LJ).
     
    The BLA has been involved in attacks on government oil fields and gas pipelines. The Pakistan government accuses India of being behind the BLA. India recently has been moving closer to the US and to Japan in a military alliance that has a distinct anti-China bent.
     
    Further, on July 29, jihadist militants armed with rockets and heavy weapons launched a concerted assault on a major prison in Dera Ismail Khan, close to the South Waziristan tribal agency in northwestern Pakistan, along the route of the rail-highway-pipelines from Gwadar to Xinjiang, freeing an estimated 250 militants affiliated with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.
     
    Terror attacks in Xinjiang too
    Xinjiang has recently suffered from new rioting by separatist Muslim Uyghurs. In late June in Xinjiang, home to some 10 million Uyghurs, two terror attacks killed 35 people days ahead of the fourth anniversary of the July 5, 2009 riot in the capital Urumqi that left 197 people dead.
    The Jihadist Uyghur terrorists apparently are being recruited in Turkey by an Uyghur independence organization, sent to Syria for combat experience and, if they survive, sent back to Xinjiang to carry out terror deeds there.
     
    China's official daily, Global Times, reported in early July that a Muslim Uyghur from Xinjiang, Memeti Alili was arrested in Xinjiang during the new wave of terrorist acts and riots. The Chinese daily reported that the 23-year-old Alili confessed to police that he had been recruited as a student in Istanbul by something called the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM). Aili was arrested when returning to Xinjiang to complete his mission to "carry out violent attack and improve fighting skills." He confessed that he had been assigned to return by the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM). ETIM is a terrorist group that aims to create an Islamist state in Xinjiang, which works alongside the East Turkistan Education and Solidarity Association (ETESA), an Istanbul-based exile group. 
     
    Muslim Uyghur youth are being recruited to go to Istanbul to "study", then recruited by ETIM and ETESA to fight as Jihadists in Syria with Al Qaeda and other jihad groups, according to China's anti-terrorism authority. If they survive the Syrian battlefield training, the Uyghur jihadists are recycled back to Xinjiang in China, the end-point of the new Gwadar to China rail and road infrastructure"land bridge."
     
    The headquarters of ETESA, located in Istanbul include research, media, social affairs, education and women's affairs departments. It aims to "educate and train Muslims" in Xinjiang and "set them free"by forming a Muslim state, according to a Chinese official.  In 2004, in Washington Anwar Yusuf Turani established the East Turkistan Government in Exile. Washington seemed not to object, though many other countries did, including China.
     
    The Istanbul link of ETIM and ETESA is no accident. Istanbul's Islamist Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan openly backed the Uyghur separatists in 2009 during the riots, calling them fellow Turkic peoples.
     
    Meanwhile, as if to further underscore how vulnerable any China-Pakistani energy and trade corridor from Gwadar to Xinjiang would be, on the eve of US Secretary of State Kerry's visit to Islamabad to meet Pakistan's Prime Minister just after the China deal of Pakistan, the US made several drone attacks inside Pakistan in the North Waziristan tribal region. They killed at least six people. It was the fourth US drone strike since Sharif was re-elected as Prime Minister in June, all in the crucial North Waziristan en route to Xinjiang. Despite Pakistan's strong protests Washington refuses to halt the CIA-run drone attacks.
     
    With the CIA drone attacks, the Baluchistan attacks of Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Baloch Liberation Army, as well as Jihadists being sent into Xinjiang from Turkey and Syria, we can expect unrest to increase in Baluchistan province and upwards to Xinjiang as the huge China-Pakistan infrastructure plans materialize in coming months.
     
    The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.
     
    NOTES;
     
    Gwadar is the world's largest deep sea port. It lies in the southwestern Pakistani province of Baluchistan in the warm water Arabian Sea. The design and construction of the final stages of the port, which began in 2002, is being carried out in collaboration with China. It has an immense geostrategic importance at the entrance to the Persian Gulf and is a likely substitute for the Port of Dubai. In 2011 Pakistan invited China to build a Naval base at Gwadar, something the Pentagon is eyeing very closely. China has yet to respond on that.  
     
      On January 30 this year, Pakistan turned over the management and operation of the Gwadar Port Authority to a Chinese company at the same time the Pakistan government signed  up to the Iran–Pakistan gas pipeline, tying Pakistan, Iran and China more closely, something that caused pain in Washington.
     
    In 2006 the US Armed Forces Journal published an article by Colonel Ralph Peters titled Blood Borders: How a better Middle East would look. In the piece, which appears to bear uncanny relevance to subsequent Pentagon and US State Department policy in the region, Peters calls for the  creation of a Free Baluchistan
     
    His call was echoed by US Pakistan "expert" Selig Harrison, who reportedly enjoys strong ties to the CIA. In 2006 after Peters published his sensational article Harrison wrote in Le Monde Diplomatique and the New York Times that a Free Baluchistan movement was "simmering."  The call by Peters and Harrison for a Free Baluchistan began four years after China began building the first phase of the Gwadar Port. 
     
     
     






    U.S. in Rwanda - helping to put Kagame in power and kick the French out of the DRC putting Kabila in power, as well as in Somalia

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    FROM A WHITE AMERICAN FRIEND WHO IS OUTSTANDING INTELLECTUAL AND IMPECCABLY HONEST

    Major Amin - this is the report that got be blackballed by USAID - written with the head of planning Ministry of Tourism, Uganda.  Just the facts - USAID didn't like it, the preservationist NGOs didn't like it and the Head of National Parks apparently went ballistic!
     
    The praise in the report for Museveni is no longer the case - he has turned into another African Big Man and his army has been used as a proxy for the U.S. in Rwanda - helping to put Kagame in power and kick the French out of the DRC putting Kabila in power, as well as in Somalia.  Our Special Ops are all over the region - oil/minerals in the Semiliki Basin along Uganda/DRC border among other reasons http://www.globalresearch.ca/are-usaid-gorilla-conservation-funds-being-used-to-support-covert-operations-in-central-africa/6828 .
     
    Regards 

    xyz


    Are USAID Gorilla Conservation Funds Being Used To support Covert Operations in Central Africa

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    On Wednesday September 19, 2007 the U.S. State Department and United States Agency for International Development (USAID) announced the provision of $496,000 of new funds for wildlife conservation in the Virunga National Park in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. According to a State Department press release, poaching, armed conflict and "demographic pressures" are justification for the grant.

    But investigations in Eastern Congo reported by these authors over the past six months indicate that USAID "conservation" funds—millions of taxpayer's dollars—have been misappropriated, misdirected and disappeared. Evidence suggests that ongoing guerrilla warfare in Central Africa is receiving clandestine financial support in AID-for-ARMS type financial transfers.

    "Our efforts are focused on conserving and protecting the habitat of these magnificent animals," said Claudia A. McMurray, U.S. Assistant Secretary for State Oceans, Environment, and Science. "The survival of the mountain gorillas of Virunga is severely threatened by the tragic events in the region, and we will continue to devote whatever resources we can to protect the gorillas and other threatened species there."

    However, as reported by these authors, millions of dollars in USAID funds given to Virunga Park through the Central African Regional Program for the Environment (CARPE) over the past ten years have virtually disappeared. Wildlife conservation in eastern Congo is a shambles, and "rebel" armies fighting in the region are receiving massive military support from unknown sources.

    The realities on the ground in Central Africa are disturbingly different from those painted in the fundraising drives and brochures produced by the big conservation organizations, and their partners and sponsors. Are these conservation programs merely providing a smokescreen for other activities?

    The Virungas region is located in North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo, also the base for long-time Rwandan-backed warlord General Laurent Nkunda.

    There is evidence that the United States backs General Laurent Nkunda through both clandestine and open military program and missions in Congo, Rwanda and Uganda.

    Fighting in Congo's North Kivu province has displaced hundreds of thousands of people in the past year alone. The death toll for the region is unknown but cataclysmic—in the millions of people dead since warfare began in the area in 1996.

    Playwright Eve Ensler, producer of the Vagina Monologues, recently launched a campaign to stop sexual violence in Eastern Congo that is unprecedented. Sexual violence is used as a weapon of war to sow terror and break down resistance to facilitate military occupation and conquest by invading forces. Hundreds of thousands of women and girls have suffered attacks of sexual violence in the area.

    THE MISSING USAID MONEY

    In 2005, after years of activity with zero oversight or program verification, the activities of Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund-International (DFGFI) and Conservation International expenditures of USAID funds ostensibly for gorilla conservation in Central Africa came under scrutiny.

    A Freedom of Information Act request was submitted regarding DFGFI's failure to file required A-133 audit forms on its USAID funding. These A-133 forms are federally mandated from every non-governmental organization (NGO) receiving USAID monies, which come from U.S. taxpayers.

    A Freedom of Information Act request determined that DFGFI has not filed audits for more than two years, while they received a total of at least $4,693,384 from USAID between September 24, 2001 and September 29, 2004.

    In September of 2005, US Congressman James Oberstar was contacted by a constituent who claimed that the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund International had failed to file federally mandated audits (Form A-133) after receiving millions of dollars in grants from USAID.

    Congressman Oberstar's informal inquiry found that, indeed, the DFGFI had failed to file required forms accounting for millions of dollars in USAID money.

    "USAID is covering up for the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund International," said a source close to this investigation, in January 2006. "The US government has backed off their investigation of where the million's of dollars in grants went."

    The source claims that DFGFI officials working in Congo and Rwanda are using the gorilla conservation as a front for other activities. The source also provided information revealing the interesting backgrounds of top-level DFGFI directors.

    "The little old lady in Iowa who sends in her five bucks to save the gorillas would freak out if she knew where her money was really going," the source said. "The gorillas are getting zip in the wild."

    In 2006 Congressman Oberstar demanded that USAID produce a report on the activities of the DFGFI in Central Africa, but as of this writing there had been no substantive action by the DFGFI or USAID. Oberstar noted that the DFGFI has violated U.S. law by not filing required audit reports.

    "I'm personally pursuing the matter" Oberstar told a reporter for the Rwanda-owned state newspaper, the New Times, in November 2005, "and have to make sure that USAID explains to the government why DFGFI has not been presenting their audit reports."

    The Rwandan state-run newspaper New Times reported that DFGFI President and CEO Clare Richardson told their reporter that DFGFI had presented audits to USAID in March 2005. The New Times also reported that the Director General of the Office of Rwanda Tourism and National Parks (ORTPN), Rosette Rugamba, told the New Times that she didn't understand the activities of the DFGFI.

    "I don't know what they are doing in Rwanda," Rugamba told the New Times. "They have been here for over three decades claiming they are doing research work but they haven't given us any results. The living conditions of the DFGFI trackers are miserable and yet the DFGFI has lots of money."

    According to Congressman Oberstar's office, on March 31, 2006, Congressional Affairs at USAID told a House International Relations Committee staff-member "that an audit is being conducted by a third party auditor, but it has not yet been completed."

    Also, the U.S. government Office of Acquisition and Assistance was reportedly forcing DFGFI to respond to all allegations leveled against them about finance and budget issues.

    The "third-party" auditor performing a "private" audit is the Defense Contract Audit Agency, a U.S. government agency responsible for auditing U.S. Department of Defense contracts.

    Why is the U.S. Defense Contracts Audit Agency auditing programs and funds designated for "gorilla conservation" in Central Africa?

    "The Defense Contract Audit Agency," reads their web site, "is under the authority, direction, and control of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), is responsible for performing all contract audits for the Department of Defense (DoD), and providing accounting and financial advisory services regarding contracts and subcontracts to all DoD Components responsible for procurement and contract administration."

    The Defense Contract Audit Agency completed the DFGFI/USAID audit in March 2007, but the audit has not been released due to the claimed "proprietary nature" of the audit.

    We repeat the question: Why is the U.S. Department of Defense Contract Audit Agency auditing the finances and programs of a conservation organization like the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund?

    While oversight and accountability for past USAID 'investment" in the region has not been achieved, even under the pressure of a U.S. Congressman, some $496 million dollars is being directed to the ongoing black hole in Central Africa.

    DIAN FOSSEY GUERILLA FUND

    Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund International also receives funds from private donors, foundations and corporate sponsors, and they have regular fundraising drives where callers solicit donations from members and the general public.

    Sponsors and friends listed in DFGFI documents for January to December of 2003, in the $25,000 and above category included, Dr. and Mrs. Nick Faust and CNN, and certain mining and intelligence connected interests.

    Dr Nicholas Faust has deep connection to the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and the Department of Defense.

    CNN's Ted Turner is an owner-shareholder in a high-tech company called Earth Search Sciences Inc. (ESSI) based out of McCall, Idaho. In 1999 ESSI loaned a state-of-the-art "hyperspectral" probe—a remote sensing instrument carried on an aircraft or satellite platform—to a DFGFI and Georgia Institute of Technology team who performed some interesting "studies" in Rwanda.

    The project was directed by Dr. Nicholas Faust who is one of the key scientists with the Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI), Redlands, California, USA, which is directly linked to ESSI.

    ESRI Corporation (www.esri.com) is self-described as "the world leader in GIS (geographic information system) modeling and mapping software and technology."

    ESRI is a key contractor for the U.S. Department of Defense and Intelligence sector, providing battle theatre GIS mapping and support technologies used, for example, for "a defense-wide infrastructure, supporting fighting missions, command and control, installation management, and strategic intelligence."

    http://www.esri.com/industries/defense/business/military_ops.html

    Remote sensing of gorilla habitat reportedly provides essential information about food sources, like the availability of species of bamboos, or encroaching threats from slash-and-burn agriculture, or other changes to gorilla habitat. But the remote sensing arena has proliferated due to the efficacy of these technologies in identifying deposits of minerals or hydrocarbons (oil & gas)—prospecting from aerospace platforms—and the data was therefore far more significant than a few species of bamboos.

    According to two independent inside sources, the 21 data CD's from the ESSI/ESRI remote sensing over-flights ostensibly for Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund International were delivered directly by the DFGFI's CEO Clare Richardson into the hands of Rwandan President Paul Kagame and the Rwandan Minister of Defense.

    "These guys aren't looking for habitat," comments one remote sensing expert (who has visited the facilities of ESSI), "they are looking for oil, which is what they do, and they probably got funding for habitat assessment from USAID and are using the data to provide their owners with oil, minerals and uranium info.  I'm not aware of any natural resource vegetative project that they have done in the past. It strictly sounds like taking the taxpayer dollar to fatten some oil guys pockets."

    The Albertine Rift area and so-called World Heritage Sites of the border zone between Uganda, Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo are at present enmeshed in massive petroleum and natural gas exploration and exploitation projects.

    Some 1000 people a day die in war-torn Eastern Congo due to guerrilla warfare and covert operations. The extent of western petroleum, mining or military involvement in Eastern Congo is never reported by the international press.

    Former CNN journalist Gary Strieker became a member of the DFGFI Board of Trustees. Strieker was the CNN journalist embedded with the Rwandan Patriotic Army during the Pentagon's covert operation that overthrew the government of Juvenal Habyarimana in Rwanda in 1994.

    CNN is deeply embedded with the Pentagon in reporting the U.S. government slant on military operations in U.S. military hotspots, including Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan and Sudan.

    CNN reportage never establishes any connections to, or stories about, the deeper, hidden realities of western involvement in war, mining, extortion, pillage, dictatorship, arms-running, genocide, disease, or population control programs in Central Africa. Like virtually all of the western media, there is never any attention to the perpetuation of structural violence or the institutions of control and domination.

    WEIDEMANN CHALLENGES CONSERVATION

    In a telling memo written in December 2004, Robert Hellyer—USAID Mission Director for DRC—wrote to the USAID Africa Bureau in Washington regarding the Central Africa Regional Program for the Environment (CARPE), the "principal vehicle for United States participation in the Congo Basin Forest Project."

    Buried in the February 2006 Annex of the supporting documents for the report of the Weidemann Consortium—an evaluation of the CARPE program in Central Africa—is the admission that the rational of "overpopulation" was bogus.

    "Of the more than 60 million people that live in the region," Hellyer wrote, "about 22 million are located in urban areas. At present rates of population growth, the region is expected to contain 150 million people by the year 2025. Population density is on the whole quite low, with a regional average of 14 persons per square kilometer."

    Wildlife conservation and state department interests have repeatedly trumpeted population pressures as the reason for gorilla and habitat decline in Central Africa, yet the above report makes it clear that "population density is on the whole quite low."

    Robert Hellyer elaborates on the global demand for petroleum and timber, and on the adverse impacts of human populations in a landscape—Congo—where "it is in the self-interest of the United States government" to support "sustainable development" in the region. Hellyer confirmed that CARPE and USAID are not interested in the Congolese people, or even biodiversity protection, but only in the interests of the United States.

    The Virungas National Park has become the focus of international investigations around white western mercenary operations. Top former U.S. state department officials involved in mining companies now plundering eastern Congo have turned up on the boards of some of the "conservation" organizations involved in the Virungas and other protected areas in Central Africa.

    One of these conservation mercenary organizations is Richard Leakey's Wildlife Direct, a newcomer in Congo that operates under the mantle of the Africa Conservation Fund, a tax-exempt (501-c-3) registered with the Internal Revenue Service.

    Gorilla killings in the Virungas increased when Wildlife Direct appeared in the Virungas in January 2007.

    One former sate department official involved in the region is Walter H. Kansteiner III, an Africa Conservation Fund board member since the founding of ACF in 2004. Kansteiner was a top-level National Security Agency official in both the William J. Clinton and G.W. Bush administrations.

    In 2003 Kansteiner appeared as an expert witness in the U.S. Congressional Hearing before the Subcommittee on Africa of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on International Relations titled "Saving the Congo Basin, the Stakes, the Plan." At the time, Kansteiner was Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs. He formerly served with the National Security Council as director of African Affairs and as an African specialist on the staff of the Secretary of State.

    Kansteiner has been a constant presence behind the scenes in Congo's war since 1996. Kansteiner worked on a strategic minerals task force at the Department of Defense and was Executive Vice President of a commodity trading and manufacturing company specializing in tropical commodities in the developing world: one of these was coltan, one of the mineral byproducts of warfare in DRC's Kivu provinces today.

    The Democratic Republic of Congo has the world's purest and largest deposits of strategic minerals, such as gold, coltan, niobium, cobalt and columbite (columbium-tantalite or coltan). Niobium, coltan, tantalum and cassiterite are found in the Virungas region.

    Walter H. Kansteiner III is on the Board of Directors of Moto Gold, now operating in the killing fields of the bloody Ituri district near Lake Albert.

    RESOURCE WARS IN CENTRAL AFRICA

    One petroleum firm involved in the great lakes region of Central Africa is Heritage Oil and Gas, a Canadian company involved in Kazakhstan, Russia, Iraq, Oman, Kurdistan, Gabon and on Lake Albert—on both sides of the war-torn DRC-Uganda border—where fighting between the Congolese FARDC army and Ugandan soldiers and Heritage Oil guards killed a British Heritage Oil subcontractor on August 3, 2007.

    Heritage Oil (Canada) and Tullow Oil (London) are operating around Lake Albert in areas that recently saw major fighting. In mid-August the Uganda government commenced a build-up of troops on the DRC border. Congolese survivors in frontier towns along Lake Albert saw Ugandan military and their "rebel" allies—believed to be troops allied with Congolese warlord Jean-Pierre Bemba—marching into Congo with heavy weapons in late August.

    By September 5, 2007, UPDF troops—and rebels reportedly aligned with Jean-Pierre Bemba—had occupied the DRC's oil- and gold-rich Semliki Basin on the western shores of Lake Albert. Heavily armed foreign forces occupied the villages of Aru, Mahagi, Fataki, Irengeti and the Ruwenzori mountains. The international press and the United Nations Observers Mission in DRC (MONUC) remained completely silent about the Ugandan incursions.

    By September 8, 2007, Ugandan troops were heavily massed on the DRC border while Kabila and Museveni were signing oil and gold sharing agreements in Tanzania. UPDF forces and "rebel" troops alleged to be Bemba's remained in DRC as of September 15.

    Heritage Oil and Gas is tied to mercenary companies and a long list of shady operators and offshore subsidiaries and partner companies.

    Bechtel Corporation subsidiary Nexant is involved in the oil pipeline being constructed across Uganda to the U.S. military port at Mombasa Kenya.

    The Ugandan People's Defense Forces and Museveni government genocide against the Acholi people of northern Uganda is driven by transboundary petroleum and gold concessions linked to foreign corporations like Heritage, Tullow, and Bechtel.

    Uganda and Rwanda are two of the Pentagon's premier military partners in Africa: some 150 U.S. Special Forces were added to the Pentagon's Uganda arsenal in March 2007 and U.S. and U.K. military have been training UPDF troops.

    Heritage has already reported pumping some 13,000 barrels per day from its "Kingfisher" 1-A site on Lake Albert.

    In March 2007, the government of Rwanda awarded massive oil concessions to Vangold Resources. The 2700 square kilometer Vangold concession—named White Elephant"—is believed to be part of the underground basin connected to the Heritage and Tullow Oil fields in the Semliki basin of DRC/Uganda.

    Vangold Resources is a Canadian Company with Canadian and US principals.

    The "White Elephant" concession is located in northern Rwanda in areas where the Rwandan Patriotic Army has led massive military operations, driving forced displacements premised on depopulating the area of Hutu villagers, since their initial invasions in 1990.

    COVERT ALLIANCES WITH LAURENT NKUNDA

    Congolese warlord Jean-Pierre Bemba met with Rwandan-backed General Laurent Nkunda during his Vice-Presidency (2003-2006) and he is now one of General Nkunda's secret backers in the ongoing bloodletting in eastern Congo.

    Jean-Pierre Bemba's brother-in-law Anthony "Tony" Teixeira deals in blood diamonds, criminal networks and mercenary operations. Tony Teixeira is one of three pivotal businessmen who, along with Jacques Lemaire and Victor Bout, were cited in 2000 for sanctions busting by supporting the UNITA rebels in Angola's war. Bout and other businessmen with U.S. connections have been involved in weapons transfers to Congo.

    According to insider MONUC sources, Jean-Pierre Bemba has been buying off high-level MONUC officials. This would partially explain MONUC's unwillingness to challenge or dislodge General Nkunda.

    Congolese people in the Kivu province have been throwing stones at MONUC vehicles because they believe MONUC is not serious about "peacekeeping" in eastern Congo but is pursuing a political agenda.

    On September 17, 2007 a "resource hungry" China signed an agreement to invest five billion dollars in Congo's infrastructure. Anglo-European interests are now using the military occupation of General Laurent Nkunda—backed by client regimes in Uganda and Rwanda, by Jean-Pierre Bemba and MONUC—to leverage their position with Kabila.

    General Laurent Nkunda earns at least $100,000 a month in extortion and minerals theft, and he is buying officials. Most important, General Laurent Nkunda is the "insurance policy" for the U.S. and German companies preventing Congo's access to the Lueshe niobium mines and other mineral bonanzas, including coltan, cassiterite and, allegedly, uranium, under Nkunda's control.

    Over the past decade, USAID has become closer and closer to Pentagon interests. While originally a "soft" instrument of U.S. foreign policy around the world, the Pentagon has openly sided with USAID in recent military programs. One of these is AFRICOM, the Pentagon's new Africa Command, which count USAID as a major partner.

    [Note from Wildlife Direct] Editor.

    "Wildlife Direct, doing business in the U.S. as the non-profit Africa Conservation Fund, is not in any way associated with African Conservation Fund (http://www.africanconservationfund.org), a non-profit established in 2003 to support longtime conservation projects in Kenya, including the African Conservation Centre."

    Why Do the “Karachiite-type” Men Fall For Punjabi Women?

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    AS RECEIVED FROM BRIG YASUB DOGAR WHO I REGARD AS A MAN OF THOUGHT AS WELL AS ACTION AND A GREAT HUMAN BEING.

    I WOULD ADD THAT I HAVE MANY FRIENDS IN SINDHS INTERIOR.

    A VERY LARGE NUMBER  OF THEM HAD PUNJABI OR PASHTUN WIVES ? SOME HAD URDU SPEAKING WIVES ALSO.

    THIS IS AN INTERESTING ARTICLE ALTHOUGH ONE MAY NOT AGREE WITH IT.

    AGHA H AMIN


    Why Do the "Karachiite-type" Men Fall For Punjabi Women?


     
       
    41 Votes


    Ballay ballay baii tor Punjaban dee....

    I begin with the disclaimer that this blog is not for 3 kinds of people:

    1. Those who have an issue with the sweeping generalizations I am about to make in the spirit of fun, though parts will be definitely based on truth and years of research-based observation.

    2. Ladies who are non-Punjabi and take the title as a jibe against themselves, and say to themselves "what does she mean? Don't men like non-Punjabi women? She doesn't know what she's talking about! I know my husband would never be able to do with a Punjabi woman…..they're so loud!"

    3. Punjabi women who, well, have ended up with the "non-Karachiite-type" thaith, purely Punjoo men.

    Ok so it just me or do you see it all around you? Out of the inter-provincial, inter-cultural marriages, engagements and other stuff, as a Karachiite I have always seen non-Punjabi men falling for Punjabi women. I on purpose used the term "karachiite-type" men, but to be more specific, we can use the term "Urdu-Speaking" men. So WHY do urdu-speaking men keep falling for Punjabi women? Specially considering the fact that many stereo-typical terms are associated with Punjabi women: Loud. Tacky. Dominating. Laraaki. Big in size. And again, loud.

    We seem to forget, generally, the beautiful, slender, groomed and talented Punjabi girls who are quite the norm. It seems like the image that comes to our mind when we say "Punjabi girl" is a big-sized female in a colourful Laacha, helping irrigate Pakistan's agricultural lands by jumping in the fields trying to entertain a disinterested man, or eating a HUGE paratha dripping with ghee, and yelling so loudly that her lungs are about to fall off on G T Road, screaming "mere naal bakwaas na keeta kar naeen te tera bootha tor diyaan gee". And yes, she IS pretty, even though she is all of the above.

    Yet, day after day, the civil, tameezdaar and wonderfully peace-loving Karachiite (or Urdu-speaking) men fall in love with Punjabi women. And not just them. The other provinces have joined in too……Sindhis, Balochs, Pathans. The question remains "why"?

    A few probable answers I discovered, after careful observation and asking around, are these:

    1. Need a Change:

    "All my life," said a friend when he was choosing a girl to marry at the ripe old age of 23, "I have seen my mom, sisters, cousins, aunts – so proper. They don't laugh too loud. They talk in aap janaab. They wear light blues and pastel pinks and beige. And I am like that too….the subtle aap janaab type. So somehow, the idea of a colourful lady in red appeals to me. Who laughs to her hearts desire and speaks her mind. You know, Phuljharee-type." "Phuljharee-type?" I asked him to confirm I had heard correctly. "Yes yes. the Phuljhuree, Titlee type. For a change you know," he affirmed. That's when I somehow understood it. The firecracker butterfly fun brand  actually works for a lot of men. That DOES NOT mean other provinces and ethnicities are bereft of phuljharees. But maybe it is inbuilt genetic selection that men seem to like the "made in Punjab" variety increasingly.

    2. The "Khulla Dulla Ishtyle"

    "At least with a Punjabi girl, you don't spend your life wondering what's under the cool demeanour," said another anon friend. (And yes, it's better my informants stay unnamed, lest they face consequences at the hands of the non-Punjoo women in their lives!). "She is who she is. Ghussay mein ho ya khush, kam az kam pata to chal jaata hai. You know how we men are, yaar. We are bad mind-readers, and women expect us to be just that. At least this way, you know that it is what it is. In your face. Jo hay wo hay. At least she'll say it and not keep it in her heart for the next decade," he said. And that's one general impression about Punjabis that yes, under the umbrella term "Punjabi" come people who are not afraid to be. Plus, they are less formal and more casual. Less takallufaat and formalities, and more of Lath Maar stuff.

    3. They Are Lookers:

    "For guys, it's all about looks. And Punjabi girls are mostly good looking. For me that is the single most important factor. As it is, I like her to be not stick thin," said another informant. Need I say more?

    4. They Have A Lot Of Fire:

    With the package of the whole loud, khulla dulla ishtyle, comes a genuine spirited fieriness. Being passionate. Being fiesty. Humourous. Hulla gulla and fun. "I'm telling you, the 'wujood e zann se hai tasweer e kainaat mein rang' wala shair was written for Punjoo girls," said one know-it-all, in his second year of a happy engagement with a Punjabi girl, while he himself has ancestors from Lucknow. My two cents to my friend were: Make sure you know how to handle the fire, before you get scalded.

    5. They Are Such Foodies:

    And men like food. So in a Punjabi girl, they dream of someone who will be able to share his excitement over puri bhaaji, nihari, gola kabab, kharay masalay ka qeema and biryani. But she will also bring into his life the joys of aloo kay parathay, murgh cholay, sarson ka saag and makkai ki roti, and Punjabi pulao. She will understand the cliche that the way to his heart is through his tummy, simply because hey, the way to HER heart is also through her tummy.

    To each his own. Whatever ethnicity works for you, go for it. And rather than the ethnicity, whatever "package deal" works for you, go for it. Meanwhile, let me sit and think over a sequel – Why Do Punjabi Women Fall For Karachiite-type Guys!




    --
    Amigo Gringo


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