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2012 The Year of War and Anarchy
Agha.H.Amin
We are moving towards a great global war and supreme strategic anarchy by remote pilot.
This happened because the pilots who were supposed to man policy and regulate the tide of history , did not have the talent to exercise their due role in history !
These pilots in reality wore the uniforms of pilots but had the caliber of air stewards and air pursers ! This includes Obama, Yusuf Raza Gillani , Man Mohan Singh and the Saudi king.
This brought us into a Sarajevo situation where events started moving decision makers rather than decision makers moving events.
Till 2008 the USA was led by an impetuous pilot with low IQ but a definite strategic decisiveness . A man with limited intellect , but one who could take strategic decisions.
After 2008 the USA got a social climber who looked outwardly smart and bright but lacked statesmanship and had a near zero strategic vision.
Thus Afghanistan after 2008 moved from relative calm into anarchy, as far as the south was concerned.
Pakistan was the worst case.It was led by an opportunist who attempted to please all parties including the Americans , Islamists, Pakistani liberals and the Indians.As a result Pakistan developed such a fatal " confusion of principle" that the whole Pakistani society was fractured down to its deepest foundations.
This military opportunist in turn made peace with the corrupt politicians to elongate his rule and Pakistans whole political fabric was shattered.
The Pakistani military was attacked by Islamists for allegedly being in league with the Christian powers.
The Pakistani military lost its entire credibility when it emerged as the main party in the controversial NRO deal which legitimised past corruption of Pakistans politicians which the army had prosecuted with zeal from 1999 to 2002.
Pakistan became engulfed in two major insurgencies , one with the Islamists and the other in Balochistan.Both have the potential to destabilise and even destroy Pakistan.
The US has no strategy in Afghanistan and is in a catch 22 unless it decides on a strategy of decisive action.
While the US policy makers saw Pakistan as centre of gravity of Islamists including Afghan Taliban the US failed to frame a decisive strategy to deal with Pakistan.
Pakistans nuclear assets , Chinese support and a growing Russian support are principal obstacles that the USA faces in formulating a strategy of decisive action against Pakistan.
Both Iran and Pakistan remain two strategic thorn lands that the USA faces and which are being constantly watered by China and Russia.
The Osama Raid and the Salala incident forced Pakistans military and political elite to close the NATO supply line to Afghanistan.
The memogate scandal also increased the civil military divide in Pakistan but this appears to be more of a US ploy to divide and weaken Pakistan.
The key strategic trends in this scenario are as following---
- Any US withdrawal in totality or partially would strengthen the Islamists in Afghanistan who will see full or partial defeat of the US as a great victory of Islam.This would destabilise Pakistan and increase chances of Indo Pak war.
- US missile shield has permanently alienated Russia and Russia will re-assert itself and take the lead in aiding all anti US forces.
- US failure to correctly deal with Iran and Pakistan will further destabilise the situation.Pakistans nuclear assets will deter the US from any grand adventure against Pakistan.
- USA chances of an internal pro US coup in Pakistan by the PPP have become weak after Osama incident and the Salala incident.
- Chances of a military coup in Pakistan will get stronger as the situation moves and if Pakistani ISIs plan to bring a national government in power with Imran Khan fails.
- India still views Pakistan as a grave strategic threat and remains apprehensive of Pakistans strategic nukes.This will ensure that the Indians will continue with aiding the low intensity war in Pakistan.
The US will try to follow a policy that reduces Pakistan to a smaller size and confines Pakistans nukes to Punjab.
In case of Balochistan it will not be difficult for the US to Balkanise Pakistan in case the US decides to support the Baloch secessionists.
Karachi remains a US strategic asset with the MQM and other elements who can paralyse Karachi at a few hours notice.
US policy will be difficult to formulate and execute.
No nuclear state was ever denuclearised by war.The policy that the US will follow will be to destabilise Pakistan and to present it as a danger to world peace like North Korea.
In the process even a small incident can initiate a grand strategic earthquake.
God help the USA,Pakistan,India and the world.
KISSINGER HEARS THE DRUMS OF WAR
"If You Can't Hear the Drums of War You Must Be Deaf", Henry
Kissinger, the most famous living practitioner of international
Statecraft NEW YORK - USA - In a remarkable admission by former Nixon era Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, reveals what is happening at the moment in the world and particularly the Middle East. Speaking from his luxurious Manhattan apartment, the elder statesman, who was 89 in May, is all too forward with his analysis of the current situation in the world forum of Geo-politics and economics. "The United States is bating China and Russia, and the final nail in the coffin will be
Iran, which is, of course, the main target of Israel.
We have allowed China to increase their military strength and Russia to recover from Sovietisation, to give them a false sense of bravado, this will create an altogether faster demise for them . We're like the sharp shooter daring the noob to pick up the gun, and when they try, it's bang. The coming war will be so severe that only one superpower can win, and that's us folks. This is why the EU is in such a hurry to form a complete superstate because they know what is coming, and to survive,Europe will have to be one whole cohesive state. Their urgency tells me that they know full well that the big showdown is upon us. O how I have dreamed of this delightful moment.
"Mr. Kissinger then added: "If you are an ordinary person, then you can prepare yourself for war by moving to the countryside and building a farm, but you must take guns with you, as the hordes of starving will be roaming. Also, even though the elite will have their safe havens and specialist shelters, they must be just as careful during the war as the ordinary civilians, because their shelters can still be compromised. "After pausing for a few minutes to collect his thoughts, Mr. Kissinger, carried on: "We told the military that we would have to take over seven Middle Eastern countries for their resources and they have nearly completed their job. We all know what I think of the military, but I have to say they have obeyed orders superfluously this time. It is just that last stepping stone, i.e. Iran which will really tip the balance..
How long can China and Russia stand by and watch America clean up? The great Russian bear and Chinese sickle will be roused from their slumber and this is when Israel will have to fight with all its might and weapons to kill as many Arabs as it can. Hopefully if all goes well, half the Middle East will be Israeli. Our young have been trained well for the last decade or so on combat console games, it was interesting to see the new Call of Duty Modern Warfare 3 game, which mirrors exactly what is to come in the near future with its predictive programming. Our young, in the US and West, are prepared because they have been programmed to be good soldiers, cannon fodder, and when they will be ordered to go out into the streets and fight those crazy Chins and Russkies, they will obey their orders. Out of the ashes we shall build a new society, there will only be one superpower left, and that one will be the global government that wins. Don't forget, the United States, has the best weapons, we have stuff that no other nation has, and we will introduce those weapons to the world when the time is right.
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