A COLD START WAR TRIAL IN KASHMIR
Agha.H.Amin
2013-14 MAY SEE A REAL COLD START WAR TRIAL IN KASHMIR.
THE PARTY THAT DOES IT FIRST WILL HAVE HISTORY ON ITS SIDE ?
TIME TO CALL THIS NUCLEAR BLUFF OF INDO PAK EMPTY THREATS OF JACKALS ?
WHEN THE BLUFF IS CALLED THERE WILL BE NO GOING BACK ?
BLIND MEN OF HINDOSTAN ?
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30 November, 2008
THE FUTURE OF INDO PAK CONFLICT-A.H AMIN
THE FUTURE OF INDO PAK CONFLICT
A.H AMIN
Only fools think that peace can be established in between Pakistan and India.
The roots of this conflict are deep.Roots which go back 1300 years in history.
Broad stages of this process are as following:--
1-Initial Arab Muslim Attacks and the Carmathian Kingdom of Multan -711-1005
2-Turkish Muslim Attacks from what is now modern Afghanistan -1005-1206
3-Establishment of Muslim Dynasty in India and rules of various dynasties-1206-1526
4-Mughal Empire 1526-1707
5-Fragmentation of Mughal Empire and Hindu Sikh and Jat Revolts -1707-1748
6-Consolidation of Hindu and Sikh States in India -1748-1803
5-Sikhs and Hindu States Challenged and Muslims Rescued by English East India Company 1803-1849.
6-Complete British Control on India 1849-1947
7-Partition of India and Establishment of Pakistan and Bharat
8-Re start of the Hindu Muslim struggle and its continuation -1947-todate including three wars and a series of multiple undeclared wars.
The partition of India did not end the Hindu Muslim confrontation because of the genocide during transfer of population and the Kashmir Dispute.
Both states were suspicious of each other which led to three wars.Both states launched various undeclared proxy wars against each other.
The major trends were :--
1-Militarisation and an arms race between the two states from 1947 till todate.
2-Resort to military means to achieve ends in 1947,1965 and 1971.
3-Acquisition of nuclear power by India and in turn Pakistani nuclear acquisitions -1973-1998.
4-The 1971 war which created Bangladesh another Muslim state and the deep psychological trauma of defeat in Pakistan.
5-The Afghan war which militarised Pakistan and introduced a new militant Islam consisting of many non state actors-1978-2008 and the trend is intensifying.
6-The Afghan guerrilla war and its repitition in Kashmir
7-Another homegrown religious militancy in shape of Shia Sunni rivalry following Iranian revolution of 1979.
8-US occupation of Afghanistan in 2001 which further complicated the issue.
Centre of gravity/strength/weaknesses of Pakistan:--
1-Pakistani nuclear programme.
2-Pakistans Army
3-Pakistans ideology.Disturb this as against ethnicity and the country is balkanised.
4-With conventional forces Indians can defeat Pakistan but the nuclear deterrent of Pakistan is a major hurdle.
5-Its multi ethnic structure is a weakness.
Centre of gravity/strength/weaknesses of India:--
1-Militarily it has depth and difficult to defeat.
2-Its political system which has so far successfully stood the challenges of time.
3-Pakistan does not have the military potential to defeat India.
4-Its economy which so far is vibrant.
5-Its multi ethnic structure is a weakness.Particularly its huge Muslim minority.
The major features of the situation are:--
1-Continuous increase in conventional forces since 1947 on both sides.
2-Acquisition of nuclear weapons and missile technology by both sides.
3-An ever increasing intelligence operations waged by both sides right from 1947 , notably ficussing on ethnic wars,sectarian wars,terrorist acts with both sides using neighbouring states like Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Nepal,Sri Lanka,UAE,Tajikisatn,Iran,Burma,Azerbaijan,Uzbekistan and various other countries as launching pads.
4-Increase in population and rapid decrease in resources on both sides notably the water and power issues.
5-Both countries are multi ethnic while India has a large Muslim minority.Both countries have a nationalities problem.
6-Various third parties want to use both Pakistan and India against each other or against China , notably this includes both USA and China,so this further complicates the issue.
7-Non state actors have become a serious contender on both sides i the last ten years.These actors can be manipulated by third parties to create teror in India or Pakistan.
8-In Pakistan the military is a direct beneficiary of any armed conflict and is against any long term peace settlement.Further in Pakistan policy making is manipulated and dominated by the military whereas in India the civilian decision makers are in control.
Seen in this context the future trends would be :--
1-The intelligence wars will continue in Indian,Balochistan,Karachi,Pashtun areas and Afghanistan and both sides will try their best to undermine each other.
2-Conventional wars will not be fought because of the nuclear deterrent but wars will be fought by economic warfare,low intensity warfare etc.
3-Islamic extremism will remain a rising and expanding phenomenon and would have the potential of seriously destroying Pakistan.
4-A superpower intervention to denuclearise Pakistan is a distinct possibility in the next ten years if superpower efforts to bring change through covert means and through cultivated elements fails in Pakistan.This is a distinct possibility .
The conflict will continue unless :--
1- A major armed conflict decides the issue- 50 %
2- Unless both India and Pakistan are Balkanised or one of them is Balkanised - 50 %
3-Both the states are denuclearised and settle their disputes- 10 %
4-The statlemate continues with the silent intelligence wars going on for the next 50 years --- 60 % chance
Having said that I must add one incident that my father narrated when he visited West Germany in 1988 .He asked the hosts " Can the Germanies unite? " .....not in our lifetime came the reply " ......and it happened in 1991.So prophecy in history is not easy.Sometimes all that we assess proves wrong.So lets hope for the best.
http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/
A.H AMIN
Only fools think that peace can be established in between Pakistan and India.
The roots of this conflict are deep.Roots which go back 1300 years in history.
Broad stages of this process are as following:--
1-Initial Arab Muslim Attacks and the Carmathian Kingdom of Multan -711-1005
2-Turkish Muslim Attacks from what is now modern Afghanistan -1005-1206
3-Establishment of Muslim Dynasty in India and rules of various dynasties-1206-1526
4-Mughal Empire 1526-1707
5-Fragmentation of Mughal Empire and Hindu Sikh and Jat Revolts -1707-1748
6-Consolidation of Hindu and Sikh States in India -1748-1803
5-Sikhs and Hindu States Challenged and Muslims Rescued by English East India Company 1803-1849.
6-Complete British Control on India 1849-1947
7-Partition of India and Establishment of Pakistan and Bharat
8-Re start of the Hindu Muslim struggle and its continuation -1947-todate including three wars and a series of multiple undeclared wars.
The partition of India did not end the Hindu Muslim confrontation because of the genocide during transfer of population and the Kashmir Dispute.
Both states were suspicious of each other which led to three wars.Both states launched various undeclared proxy wars against each other.
The major trends were :--
1-Militarisation and an arms race between the two states from 1947 till todate.
2-Resort to military means to achieve ends in 1947,1965 and 1971.
3-Acquisition of nuclear power by India and in turn Pakistani nuclear acquisitions -1973-1998.
4-The 1971 war which created Bangladesh another Muslim state and the deep psychological trauma of defeat in Pakistan.
5-The Afghan war which militarised Pakistan and introduced a new militant Islam consisting of many non state actors-1978-2008 and the trend is intensifying.
6-The Afghan guerrilla war and its repitition in Kashmir
7-Another homegrown religious militancy in shape of Shia Sunni rivalry following Iranian revolution of 1979.
8-US occupation of Afghanistan in 2001 which further complicated the issue.
Centre of gravity/strength/weaknesses of Pakistan:--
1-Pakistani nuclear programme.
2-Pakistans Army
3-Pakistans ideology.Disturb this as against ethnicity and the country is balkanised.
4-With conventional forces Indians can defeat Pakistan but the nuclear deterrent of Pakistan is a major hurdle.
5-Its multi ethnic structure is a weakness.
Centre of gravity/strength/weaknesses of India:--
1-Militarily it has depth and difficult to defeat.
2-Its political system which has so far successfully stood the challenges of time.
3-Pakistan does not have the military potential to defeat India.
4-Its economy which so far is vibrant.
5-Its multi ethnic structure is a weakness.Particularly its huge Muslim minority.
The major features of the situation are:--
1-Continuous increase in conventional forces since 1947 on both sides.
2-Acquisition of nuclear weapons and missile technology by both sides.
3-An ever increasing intelligence operations waged by both sides right from 1947 , notably ficussing on ethnic wars,sectarian wars,terrorist acts with both sides using neighbouring states like Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Nepal,Sri Lanka,UAE,Tajikisatn,Iran,Burma,Azerbaijan,Uzbekistan and various other countries as launching pads.
4-Increase in population and rapid decrease in resources on both sides notably the water and power issues.
5-Both countries are multi ethnic while India has a large Muslim minority.Both countries have a nationalities problem.
6-Various third parties want to use both Pakistan and India against each other or against China , notably this includes both USA and China,so this further complicates the issue.
7-Non state actors have become a serious contender on both sides i the last ten years.These actors can be manipulated by third parties to create teror in India or Pakistan.
8-In Pakistan the military is a direct beneficiary of any armed conflict and is against any long term peace settlement.Further in Pakistan policy making is manipulated and dominated by the military whereas in India the civilian decision makers are in control.
Seen in this context the future trends would be :--
1-The intelligence wars will continue in Indian,Balochistan,Karachi,Pashtun areas and Afghanistan and both sides will try their best to undermine each other.
2-Conventional wars will not be fought because of the nuclear deterrent but wars will be fought by economic warfare,low intensity warfare etc.
3-Islamic extremism will remain a rising and expanding phenomenon and would have the potential of seriously destroying Pakistan.
4-A superpower intervention to denuclearise Pakistan is a distinct possibility in the next ten years if superpower efforts to bring change through covert means and through cultivated elements fails in Pakistan.This is a distinct possibility .
The conflict will continue unless :--
1- A major armed conflict decides the issue- 50 %
2- Unless both India and Pakistan are Balkanised or one of them is Balkanised - 50 %
3-Both the states are denuclearised and settle their disputes- 10 %
4-The statlemate continues with the silent intelligence wars going on for the next 50 years --- 60 % chance
Having said that I must add one incident that my father narrated when he visited West Germany in 1988 .He asked the hosts " Can the Germanies unite? " .....not in our lifetime came the reply " ......and it happened in 1991.So prophecy in history is not easy.Sometimes all that we assess proves wrong.So lets hope for the best.
http://low-intensity-conflict-review.blogspot.com/
can India and Pakistan make Peace – Agha.H.Amin , Major (r)
THE ONLY REASON WHY THIRD RATE PAKISTAN IS SURVIVING IS BECAUSE IT HAS AN EQUALLY THIRD RATE ENEMY LIKE INDIA !
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MEDIOCRES ON BOTH SIDES , BOTH ARMY AND CIVIL ?
AGHA H AMIN
CAN INDIA AND PAKISTAN MAKE PEACE – AGHA.H.AMIN , MAJOR (R)
Utopians in India are jubilant that Pakistan has made peace with India.
Nothing in reality can be farther from the truth.
The recent sudden angelic desire on part of the Pakistani establishment to make peace with India has nothing to do with any major shift in Pakistans foreign policy written in the Pakistani military headquarters popularly known as the GHQ.
The Pakistani apparent shift is merely a tactical response to extreme confrontation with the US over perceived US view that Pakistan is playing a double game in Afghanistan.
This is similar to Musharrafs flirtation with India from 2000 to 2007 which in reality was a gambit to prevent a two front war with Afghanistan occupied by the USA and a hostile India in the east.
The real picture of true intentions of the Pakistani military will emerge when the US withdraws from Afghanistan.
This will be the time when the Russians ,Iranians and Indians will have no choice but to support the Northern Alliance against Pakistan sponsored Taliban who regard all Shias, Ismailis,Non Pashtuns,moderate Pashtuns as infidels who deserve to be massacred.
The Pakistani politicians are a compromised manipulated lot who are under firm control of the Pakistani military thanks to the politicians own massive financial corruption.They will do what the Pakistani generals tell them whether it is the PPP, PML or any new party like Imran Khans Tehrik i Insaaf.
Pakistan will remain the same state run by an army rather than a state with an army.The Pakistani generals will control Pakistans politics and foreign policy and Pakistan India relations will remain a mix of an uneasy and an unpredictable peace.
Pakistan will remain embroiled in an ever continuous civil unrest.Baloch will be gunned down by the Pakistani military while Pakistans politicians will remain the puppets of the military that they have been since 1977.
Terrorism will remain a tool of foreign policy while the Pakistani military runs the Pakistani state under a facade of PPP or PML or Tehrik i Insaaf.
By that time Pakistani military will be hoping to achieve all its objectives–
1. An extremist dominated Afghanistan.
2. A Balochistan fully fragmented and crushed.
3. A Pakistani political party leading Pakistan fully subservient to the Pakistani military.
4. A renewed infiltration in Kashmir.
5. A brinkmans nuclear policy with India .
6. A greater Chinese vassal with far greater Chinese interests in Pakistan.
There is no doubt that Pakistan will be a semi autonomous Chinese province by 2030 or so.Its relations with India will be run on two basis , Pakistani military retaining its nuisance value based on the much trumped and misused Indian threat and secondly Pakistan as a Chinese pawn acting as Chinas western bastion in West Asia.Pakistani Balochistan by 2030 would be a completely Chinese run show while Pakistans military and corrupt politicians will control Pakistans corrupt par excellence economy.
Manmohan Singh will remain dupes that they always were.The region will remain unstable because instability is custom made to suit the Pakistani elite both military and civilian.
Indias budding middle class wants to make peace with the Pakistani establishment because they want to have a good time.
Manmohan Singh is a cheap social climber with no strategic vision.This means that the common man in both India and Pakistan will both come to grief.
Pashtuns and Baloch will remain pawns of Pakistani establishment with Baloch regarded as Red Indians and Pashtuns regarded as good cannon fodder to be launched like fools in the name of Islam.Pakistans economy will remain centred to serve the good of Pakistan elite and prosperity will remain confined to the triangle Pindi Multan Lahore and Karachi-Hyderabad.
The Pakistani supreme court will remain an arm of the Pakistani elite who turns a blind eye when any one challenges Pakistani military in the courts.
Pakistan shall remain a mirage which serves a 5 % elite and the region will remain unstable and a hostage to nuclear brinkmanship.
Pakistans pensioners will die like stray dogs ! Pakistans youth will be gunned down by the corrupt Pakistani police for money ! Pakistani intelligence will continue the kill and dump policy all over Pakistan and specially in Balochistan !
This is not about Islam ! This is not about Pakistan ! This is all about a 5 or 10 % establishment that has controlled Pakistan since 1948.
All that this elite wants is to preserve their unfair advantage ! These are the new Banias,the new Muslim Banias of Pakistan !
In 1947 Muslims of Pakistan got rid of Hindu Banias but the idea of the Muslim elite was that the Muslim masses need to be buggered not by the Hindu Banias but by Muslim Banias from Gujerat,Chiniot,Khotian (later Saigal Abad) and the elite feudals who had joined the Muslim League by the 1946 elections.
Third rate Pakistani lower middle class young men will continue to pass the CSS exam and join Police,FBR and DMG to become billionaires with phenomenal corruption of all types with houses in posh DHA Karachi or Lahore within ten years of passing the CSS exam !
Pakistan does not have hawks with aristocratic backgrounds like ZA Bhutto nor visionary generals ! It is run by carpetbaggers,robber industrial barons,arch intriguer feudals and generals who are NCOs sons and are just simply ambitious !
This means that Pakistans political economy of exporting terrorism as a foreign policy tool,massive corruption at home and the resultant ever growing reservoir of economically deprived youngsters who will fill ranks of extremists and suicide bombers will continue.
We salute the age of West Asian strategic anarchy
The Destroyed Rail and Road Bridge
At Jassar-Dera Baba Nanak-India Pakistan Border
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Since, things are not going as they wished in Afghanistan, they are getting uneasy.